My Week 14 straight-up picks went 10-4 and correctly predicted that the Jaguars and Chargers would score upset wins. That moves my straight-up picks to a 73-27 mark over the past seven weeks. Let’s go for an eighth straight week of 10-plus wins in Week 15.
I’m giving two picks for each game: One is which team I predict to win outright, the other is which team I predict will cover the point spread. Each pick has a confidence level of 1-10, with 10 being the most confident. For more information on the pick methodology, check out the Week 1 edition of this series.
Keep in mind that since the idea here is to make high-percentage plays, my picks tend to lean chalk-heavy. I am also very judicious in giving out higher confidence level scores.
If you want to see my confidence picks ranked 1-16 (pick to win), scroll to the table at the bottom.
Here is how my Week 14 picks fared, along with my current season record.
Overall picks to win: 10-4 in Week 14 (145-62-1 for the season)
Picks to win with 1-5 confidence: 7-1 (89-45-1)
Picks to win with 6-10 confidence: 3-3 (56-17)
Overall to cover the spread: 6-8 (102-99-7)
Cover the spread picks with 1-5 confidence: 4-5 (84-79-6)
Cover the spread picks with 6-10 confidence: 2-2 (18-19-1)
Now let’s get into the Week 15 selections.
All odds referenced are courtesy of BetMGM as of publish time.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5)
These teams are both slumping. The Falcons have better defensive metrics, but the Buccaneers have a notable edge in special teams. Tampa Bay could get Mike Evans back this week. That’s a plus, but this matchup still falls into the toss-up category. I’ll take Tampa Bay to win and Atlanta to cover.
Pick to win: Tampa Bay (Confidence level: 2)
Pick to cover the spread: Atlanta (Confidence level: 2)
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow makes scoring 30-plus points look easy. That’s an issue for a Baltimore club that has allowed 59 points and more than 500 net passing yards over the past two weeks. The Ravens haven’t scored 30-plus points since Week 2. Give me Cincinnati for the upset win out and corresponding cover.
Pick to win: Cincinnati (CL: 4)
Pick to cover the spread: Cincinnati (CL: 5)
Buffalo Bills (-1) at New England Patriots
This may be the toughest game to pick on the Week 15 board. Buffalo has a better ground game and pass coverage. New England fares better in pass rushing and pass blocking. The Patriots are healthier and are the home team. None of these is enough to lean heavily in a single team’s direction. I’ll pick Buffalo for the win. I would pick New England for the cover if the spread were more than 1 point, but since they are +1, a cover would mean New England won the game.
Pick to win: Buffalo (CL: 1)
Pick to cover the spread: Buffalo (CL: 1)
Washington Commanders at New York Giants (-2)
The Giants don’t have a huge stat lead in this matchup, but they do have a lead. That’s enough for me to justify a New York win and cover selection.
Pick to win: New York (CL: 4)
Pick to cover the spread: New York (CL: 3)
Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (-7.5)
Chicago is the better offensive team, but Shedeur Sanders played quite well last week. The Browns also have a significant edge in pass rush and pass coverage. Those factors aren’t enough to make me pick the Browns for an outright road win, but I’ll take them for the cover.
Pick to win: Chicago (CL: 3)
Pick to cover the spread: Cleveland (CL: 3)
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)
The Chargers’ rushing attack looked revitalized with the return of Omarion Hampton on Monday night. L.A. is better on pass defense and is much better on special teams. The Chiefs stop the run well and should be able to get a pass rush on Justin Herbert. Those elements make this close enough for a Chiefs pick to win, along with a Chargers spread selection.
Pick to win: Kansas City (CL: 3)
Pick to cover the spread: Los Angeles (CL: 3)
Las Vegas Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles (-11)
The metric review for this game wasn’t as strongly in favor of Philadelphia as I expected. The Eagles are well ahead, mind you, just not by enough to warrant an 11-point spread for a team that has only one win of that caliber this year. For that reason, I’m selecting Philadelphia for the win and taking Vegas for the cover.
Pick to win: Philadelphia (CL: 7)
Pick to cover the spread: Las Vegas (CL: 3)
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-12.5)
The Jets deserve kudos for playing better of late. They still are nowhere near the Jaguars’ level. Jacksonville has an edge in nearly every category outside of special teams. It should be enough to warrant my picking the Jaguars to win and cover.
Pick to win: Jacksonville (CL: 8)
Pick to cover the spread: Jacksonville (CL: 6)
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (-9.5)
This game is the most lopsided in my Week 15 stat analysis. Houston has advantages in every defensive category and a huge edge in special teams. The Texans are also much healthier and are at home. In my opinion, Houston should be a double-digit favorite.
Pick to win: Houston (CL: 9)
Pick to cover the spread: Houston (CL: 7)
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Denver Broncos
Some may be surprised that the Packers are a road favorite. Don’t be. Green Bay has an advantage in every defensive metric category and has a better passing game. That gives the Packers more avenues to win. I’ll take Green Bay for the road win and cover.
Pick to win: Green Bay (CL: 4)
Pick to cover the spread: Green Bay (CL: 2)
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5)
The Lions showed last week that they can keep up in a scoreboard shootout against a team with a subpar defense. The Rams don’t have a subpar defense, and their offense is every bit as good as Detroit’s. Los Angeles is also much healthier and at home.
Pick to win: Los Angeles (CL: 6)
Pick to cover the spread: Los Angeles (CL: 4)
Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints
Carolina has a much better win-loss record, but these teams are dead even metrically speaking. In a case like this, I’ll usually take the home team. Because New Orleans is a home dog, I’ll flip that script and pick Carolina to win and the Saints to cover.
Pick to win: Carolina (CL: 1)
Pick to cover the spread: New Orleans (CL: 1)
Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-12.5)
The 49ers are not playing quite as well as their recent win-loss record would indicate. San Francisco has some stat advantages in this matchup, but these teams rate even or close in most areas. The 49ers will still get my pick to win, but there isn’t enough here to warrant a San Francisco cover.
Pick to win: San Francisco (CL: 6)
Pick to cover the spread: Tennessee (CL: 2)
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5)
Don’t read too much into the 13.5-point spread being because of the Daniel Jones injury. Seattle has stat advantages in nearly every area and would still be a huge favorite even if Jones were playing. This could be a blowout win for the Seahawks.
Pick to win: Seattle (CL: 9)
Pick to cover the spread: Seattle (CL: 7)
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-6)
There isn’t a better game-plan subplot this week than Brian Flores’ superb Vikings defense versus Brian Schottenheimer’s powerhouse Dallas offense. Those factors nullify each other. That leaves Dallas with a slight special teams edge and being the home team. Those factors are enough to make the Cowboys my pick to win, but not enough for the cover.
Pick to win: Dallas (CL: 3)
Pick to cover the spread: Minnesota (CL: 3)
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
The Steelers are supposed to be the bullies on the block. That’s not the case here. Miami rates as the better rushing offense and defense. Pittsburgh does pass-block well and has home-field advantage, but the Dolphins are the healthier team. Add them up, and I’ll go with Miami for the road upset win.
Pick to win: Miami (CL: 4)
Pick to cover the spread: Miami (CL: 5)