The Buccaneers host the Falcons for Thursday Night Football at Raymond James Stadium, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Tampa Bay comes in at 7–6 and holds a lead in the NFC South thanks to a tiebreaker, so a win would strengthen its playoff position and keep pressure on the Carolina Panthers. Atlanta, sitting at 4–9, has already been eliminated from postseason contention, but a divisional matchup still gives the Falcons a chance to play spoiler and disrupt Tampa Bay’s path to the postseason.
Injuries sit at the center of this matchup. Tampa Bay continues to monitor several key players, including Cade Otton, SirVocea Dennis, Tykee Smith, and Haason Reddick, who all dealt with practice limitations. The Bucs are also watching the status of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr., and Tristan Wirfs as they work their way back toward full availability.
Atlanta expects to remain without Drake London because of a knee issue, while Brandon Dorlus and Jalon Walker are questionable on defense. The Falcons are also keeping an eye on A.J. Terrell Jr., who is managing a neck injury heading into Thursday night.
These health updates prompted analysts to reevaluate their Bucs vs. Falcons predictions and stat projections using new simulations that factored in the potential of certain players missing this game. The results of these simulations were compared to updated sportsbook odds to compile the data-driven Bucs-Falcons preview below.
Bucs vs. Falcons betting preview
Explore the interactive widget below to see the latest spread, total, and moneyline betting odds and probabilities for the Buccaneers-Falcons matchup at Raymond James Stadium.
This prediction and best bet for Thursday’s NFL matchup between Tampa Bay and Atlanta is from Dimers.com, a leader in sports betting predictions.
Game detailsDate: Thursday, December 11, 2025Time: 8:15 PM ETVenue: Raymond James StadiumNFL standings: Current NFL division standingsNFL injuries: Check the latest updates to the official NFL injury reportOddsSpread: Buccaneers favored at -4.5Total (Over/Under): 44Moneyline Odds: Falcons +195, Buccaneers -225
The odds and lines featured in this article are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sportsbook Promos
Local fans can use these promos from FanDuel and DraftKings to unlock bonus bets for this classic rivalry game, while the BetMGM bonus code “CUSE100″ and Bet365 bonus code “SYRACUSE” have emerged as the top college football promos nationwide.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) signals during warmups before an NFL football game against the Detroit Lions Monday, Oct. 20, 2025, in Detroit.AP Photo/Paul SancyaExpert Prediction: Bucs vs. Falcons on TNF
Dimers’ 10,000-game simulation leans toward Tampa Bay controlling the matchup. The model projects a 25–20 Buccaneers win, giving Tampa Bay a 68% chance to come out on top. Atlanta holds a 32% win probability as a road underdog.
Best Bet: Bucs -4.5 (-105) at DraftKings
With Tampa Bay fighting to stay atop the NFC South and Dimers’ model backing them with a sizable win probability edge, the best bet lines up with the Bucs -4.5. Their defense matches up well against a Falcons offense missing key weapons, and Tampa Bay’s playmakers trending toward availability boosts the pick even further.
NFL Player Props: Anytime Touchdown ProbabilitiesPlayerTeamAnytime TD ProbabilityBijan RobinsonFalcons54.1%Tyler AllgeierFalcons37.3%Kyle PittsFalcons27.8%Darnell MooneyFalcons21.8%David SillsFalcons19.4%Mike EvansBuccaneers39.2%Bucky IrvingBuccaneers39.1%Emeka EgbukaBuccaneers36.8%Chris GodwinBuccaneers33.8%Cade OttonBuccaneers22.4%Conclusion: Bucs vs. Falcons on TNF
Tampa Bay enters Thursday night with the clearer path to the postseason and a healthier offensive core trending upward. Atlanta’s injuries at receiver and along the defense give the Buccaneers matchup advantages across the board. With the simulations and injury landscape pointing the same way, Tampa Bay holds the stronger profile to cover and take a key divisional win in prime time.
We emphasize that all of the NFL best bets and NFL predictions in this article are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the Bucs vs. Falcons game, and they are correct at the time of publication to help you make more informed choices when placing bets at online sportsbooks.
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