Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 15 Picks:

We’re having a great holiday season in the Tuley’s Takes home office (and preparing our annual office Christmas party, just hope it doesn’t turn into a Die Hard situation), but suffered a losing NFL Week 14 last week.

After a nice run of four straight winning weeks, we went 2-3 ATS with our Best Bets here with wins on the Bengals +5.5 in their spread-covering 39-34 loss at the Bills and Texans +3.5 in their 20-10 outright upset at the Chiefs. However, we lost badly with the Falcons +7 and Cardinals +8 and by just half a point with the Bears +6.5 (I’m not a fan of buying half-points, but it made sense and earned a push in that case, but we have to grade it here as a loss).

 

Our patent-pending “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” also had a rare losing week as our recommended legs for 2-team, 6-point teasers went 4-4, and it’s hard to make a profit with a .500 mark.

But even though I landed on too many dead dogs this past Sunday, I’m encouraged as underdogs have actually taken a 103-99-1 ATS lead on the NFL season after going 8-5 ATS in Week 14 (one pick-’em on Commanders-Vikings not included) following a 10-6 ATS mark in Week 13. I’ve written for years, going back to my Daily Racing Form and ESPN days that this time of year (call it McRib season or just oddsmakers and the public overreacting to the haves and have-nots and overinflating points spread) is usually good for dogs.

Hopefully that continues, as all NFL teams are done with their byes and we have full 16-game weeks the rest of the regular season to find those soft spots.

For the uninitiated here at Tuley’s Takes, I give my “take” on each pro football matchup from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those who play in contests where they have to pick every game.

Here we go in rotation order.

THURSDAY

Tuley’s Take: When the schedulemakers made this game the Week 15 Thursday nighter, they probably thought it would be a head-to-head battle for the NFC South lead. However, the Falcons are a disappointing 4-8 and already eliminated from even a wild-card hope. 

The Bucs are 7-6 and tied with the surprising Panthers. They need this game more, obviously; however, let’s not forget that after getting blown out by the Rams 34-7 three weeks ago, they’ve been in this same spot and failed to cover as 4-point favorites against the Cardinals two games ago and then lost 24-20 to the Saints as 7.5-point favorites. That shows me they can’t just “flip the switch” and cover, and don’t forget those were both also at home, so I don’t want to hear about home-field advantage. The Falcons have their own problems, but I’ve had a lot of success this season with TNF dogs on short weeks.  

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Falcons +4.5 (pool play: Falcons 67/33 in rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Buccaneers still 67/33 in SU pools – basically, what I’m saying here is if they played this game three times that likely the Bucs would go 2-1 but in one win the Falcons would cover to go 2-1 ATS).

SUNDAY

Tuley’s Take: VSiN subscribers might remember from the NFL Betting Guide over the summer that I gave out Texans Over 9.5 Season Wins +110 and +105 to win the AFC South, so I’ve been thrilled with their resurgence as they’re two wins from going Over with four games left and have caught the Colts and are just one game behind the Jaguars. Granted, the Cardinals are among the worst teams in the league at 3-10, but I still feel this is one of those overinflated lines. 

The Texans win with their No. 1-ranked defense, and I expect them to grind out another win here. And even though the Cards were routed 45-17 by the Rams this past Sunday, they lost by a field goal vs. the Jaguars and Bucs in their two prior games. That works for us here.  

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Cardinals +9.5 (pool play: Cardinals 60/40 in ATS contests, but Texans still 80/20 in SU pools).

Tuley’s Take: Here’s another overinflated line, and I’m sure after the Raiders’ much-discussed back-door cover against the Broncos, I’m sure everyone is expecting me to be on them. And I normally would, but even though the Eagles don’t deserve to be favored by this much or expected to cover such a big number, the Raiders were clearly the wrong side. I can’t count on them to stay close enough again to bail out dog bettors. Besides, there are just too many bets I like way more this week.  

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Raiders 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Eagles 100/0 in SU pools).

Tuley’s Take: I hadn’t noticed in my early handicapping of the card, but we actually have four double-digit dogs in Week 15 (and one at 9.5), so we can certainly be selective in which ones we choose. The Jaguars took the AFC South lead with their 36-19 win at the Colts on Sunday and are certainly getting more public money. The advance line on this game was Jags -9.5, reopened at -11.5 on Sunday and has been steamed to -13.5 as of deadline Wednesday. I feel that’s too much of an adjustment as the Jets have far more competitive the second half of the season, even if Tyrod Taylor (groin) isn’t able to play and we’re stuck with Brady Cook.  

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Jets +13.5 (pool play: Jets 60/40 in ATS contests, but Jaguars at least 90/10 in SU pools).

Tuley’s Take: The advance line for this game last week was Bears -6.5 before they lost 28-21 at the Packers. The Browns lost 31-29 at home vs. the Titans. Oddsmakers then moved the line across the key number to give us the Browns +7.5, and I’ll take it. 

The Bears have obviously overachieved this season, but are looking like a legit playoff team. However, this is a sandwich game for them between two meetings with the Packers (note: I recommend an advance bet on the Bears as 3-point home dogs next Saturday), and I can’t pass up getting more than a TD with the Browns’ defense plus rookie QB Shedeur Sanders playing better. 

Besides, forecasts call for a wind chill of -10 to -20 at Soldier Field on Sunday and inclement weather tends to level the playing field for our dogs and turn into low-scoring games where points are at a premium. (Note: I wouldn’t talk anyone out of adding Bears -1.5 in their teasers, which we’ll get to soon).  

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Browns +7.5 and possibly Bears -1.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Browns 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bears still 80/20 in SU pools).

Tuley’s Take: The Patriots won the earlier meeting 23-20 and are trying to wrap up the AFC East with another win Sunday. This line has bounced back and forth with both teams favored the past week, and the Bills are currently -1 as of Wednesday’s deadline. I would consider either side in teasers if the line goes to 1.5, but our purposes here now it’s not in my so-called “teaser zone,” so it’s a pass).  

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Patriots 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).

Tuley’s Take: The Bengals routed the Ravens 32-14 just two weeks ago in Joe Burrow’s return, and regular readers know I’m not a big fan of “revenge” and would rather have the team that showed it could beat the other, especially when getting points in the rematch. 

However, the line is too short for me to take the Bengals +2.5, so let’s officially start our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio for the week by moving them to +8.5 (across the key numbers of 3 and 7) and use in 2-team, 6-point teasers with our other eligible legs: Commanders +8.5 at Giants, Broncos +8.5 vs. Packers, Saints +8.5 vs. Panthers and and possibly Bears -1.5 vs. the Browns, though I like the dog in that game, shooting for a middle). As always, shop around not only for the best lines to tease but also for the lowest juice.  

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Bengals +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests, but Ravens still 65/35 in SU pools).

Tuley’s Take: After the Chiefs lost to the Texans on Sunday night, they really needed the Chargers to lose Monday night at the Eagles to give them their clearest path to a wild-card spot. They’re definitely up against it now and are in must-win spots the rest of the way, but as I said before with the Bucs, teams in must-win spots don’t always win (if they were able to “flip the switch,” they would have done it already and not be in this spot). Frankly, the Chargers should actually be favored here, so we’ll gladly take the points just in case the game comes down to a field goal.  

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Chargers +4.5 (pool play: Chargers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Chiefs still 60/40 in SU pools).

Tuley’s Take: The Commanders were our most embarrassing teaser loss in Week 14 as they got behind the Vikings early and lost 31-0. While that was ugly, we don’t see the Giants doing the same thing here, even with coming out of their bye week with a healthy Jaxson Dart (but for how long?).  

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Commanders +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Commanders 55/45 in ATS contests, but Giants still 65/35 in SU pools).

Tuley’s Take: All the talk about this game has been about Daniel Jones’ season-ending injury and the Colts signing Philip Rivers. The advance line was only Seahawks -4 but reopened -10 after Jones was injured and the Colts lost 36-19 at the Jaguars and has since been raised to nearly two TDs. Again, I see this as an overadjustment and will take the most points I can get, whether Riley Leonard gets the start or Rivers.  

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Colts +13.5 (pool play: Colts 60/40 in ATS contests, but Seahawks at least 80/20 in SU pools).

Tuley’s Take: This is an interconference game but still important to both teams as both are in contention for No. 1 seeds and first-round byes. This should be played with a playoff intensity. I expect a hard-fought, one-score game, and it makes it one of my favorite plays in the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio at Broncos +8.5 at home.  

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Broncos +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Broncos 55/45 in ATS contests, but Packers still 60/40 in SU pools).

Tuley’s Take: Here we have another game in the teaser zone. The Panthers are 7-6 and tied for the NFC South lead and I’ve done very well betting them as underdogs this season. I’m sure you’ve all seen the stats on them as chalk (haven’t won as road fave since 2021, 0-24 ATS as fave vs. sub-.400 tea since 2015, etc.), so I’d warn anyone against laying the points with them here, especially as the Saints have been playing better lately, including upsetting the Bucs on Sunday. However, I’m not willing to take the short number and will instead also put in our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.  

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Saints +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests, but Panthers still 65/35 in SU pools).

Tuley’s Take: Earlier this year, this was looking like it might be a game for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Rams are atop the conference, but the Lions are just 8-5 and a game out of the last playoff spot after going just 3-3 in their last six games. But I still have them among the best overall rosters and certainly able to match the Rams score for score. The advance line for this game was Rams -4.5, and I felt that was too high. Now it’s up to 6, and that makes it a stronger play for me on the Lions.  

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Lions +6 (pool play: Lions 67/33 in ATS contests, but Rams still 67/33 in SU pools – see Falcons-Bucs “pool play” comment).

Tuley’s Take: The advance line for this game last week was 49ers -12.5 before the Titans upset the Browns 31-29 for just their second win of the season, while the 49ers were on their bye. The line has gone to 13 at some books, and my first question is why hasn’t the line dipped off the Titans’ win? I guess it’s due to bettors liking teams off byes and the 49ers motivated by improving playoff positioning as they trail the Rams and Seahawks by a game in the NFC West and trying to hold onto one of the last wild-card spots (currently No. 6). Regular readers will recognize this as a “swagger play” on the Titans after snapping a 7-game losing streak, so I’m all in on the Titans.  

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Titans +12.5 or better (pool play: Titans 65/35 in ATS contests, but 49ers still 90/10 in SU pools).

Tuley’s Take: How did this Sunday Night Football dud not get flexed out with the 6-6-1 Cowboys hosting the 5-8 Vikings? J.J. McCarthy returned with a career-high three TD passes in a 31-0 rout of the Commanders this past Sunday, but I still don’t feel like I’m getting enough points here. Longtime readers may remember that while I’m usually an Under bettor, I do like Overs in late-season NFL games with teams playing out the string, as the defenses aren’t that motivated to keep games closer and they turn into playground-like shootouts. Betting the Over is a good enough reason to get me to watch this subpar primetime matchup.  

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Over 47.5 (pool play: Cowboys 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).

MONDAY

Tuley’s Take: This Monday nighter was looking like it could be as much of a dud as Vikings-Cowboys, but at least the Steelers are still trying to hold onto their lead at 7-6 in the AFC North while the Dolphins are somehow still alive for a wild-card at 6-7 if they can run the table (and get some help). I would normally love a road dog getting more than a FG on Monday Night Football, but I can’t pull the trigger on the inconsistent Dolphins. Besides, Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers also showed me more fight in their 27-22 win at Baltimore on Sunday, and this is certainly an easier spot for them.  

NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).

For more Week 15 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 15 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.