“Playoffs? Don’t talk about playoffs. You kidding me?”
Fight the urge to turn into your inner Jim Mora, because we are talking about playoffs. Despite the well-documented problems with this very imperfect Steelers team, they find themselves in first place and controlling their own destiny with four games remaining on the schedule.
Look around the AFC, and there’s no denying that the rest of the conference is riddled with flaws, too. Its playoff picture is competitive in that 12 teams have yet to be mathematically eliminated, but it’s not exactly made up of the strongest and most reliable teams. Consider the three other division leaders — the Broncos, Patriots, and Jaguars — they aren’t exactly the unbeatable juggernauts led by Brady, Manning, or Mahomes in recent memory. Pittsburgh has already beaten New England, and neither Denver nor Jacksonville has a quarterback that football fans would consider trustworthy in the playoffs.
We still have our doubts and concerns about the Steelers’ current roster, of course. The playoffs are anything but guaranteed.
But we’re nearly in the full holiday season swing, so why not allow for a sliver of optimism and speculate on the possibilities this final month of the season could have in store for us?
This week, Read & React is embracing our inner Lloyd Christmas and daring to talk about the playoffs.
Gut call, are the Steelers making the playoffs? How do you see the final four games playing out?
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – DECEMBER 07: Aaron Rodgers #8 of the Pittsburgh Steelers celebrates a third quarter touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on December 07, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) Getty Images
RB: I’ve been calling “yes” for a while now, even if my confidence has faltered once or twice, given recent low points in the season. But with the Steelers back in the AFC North lead following a win over the once-again struggling Ravens, it’s no longer a hot take to see them making the wild-card round.
In fact, NFL.com’s playoff projector has now updated the Steelers to a 66% chance of making it to an extra week, dumping its previous Ravens optimism (Baltimore now sits at 33%).
Look, Mike Tomlin has his issues as a head coach. We covered that in-depth in last week’s R&R. But while he has a playoff win problem, he doesn’t have an issue getting there. The Steelers have made the postseason in four of the past five seasons, including instances with rosters worse than Pittsburgh’s 2025 squad.
As I’ve now laid out a few times this week, the Steelers’ upcoming schedule of Dolphins, Lions, Browns, and Ravens compares well to Baltimore’s final stretch of Bengals, Patriots, Packers, and Steelers.
With Pittsburgh at 7-6 (including a win in Baltimore) and the Ravens at 6-7, all the Steelers need to do is win as many games as the Ravens over the final stretch of the season to win the North and make the playoffs.
However, it’s shaping up to be a nail-biting final four games.
I have Pittsburgh going 2-2 to end the season – the losses because of the (gestures at everything) repeated collapses they’ve suffered on both sides of the ball throughout the season, and the wins partly because Aaron Rodgers is looking healthier and Derrick Harmon is on the verge of returning.
Plus, I think the Steelers have strong chances of winning three of those remaining games, given they’ve already beaten the Ravens and Browns, and on Monday night, they get the 6-7 Dolphins in Pittsburgh.
Ultimately, I think the Steelers lose to Detroit (Jahmyr Gibbs, nuff said), and if I had to guess what the other loss would be, having the Browns’ defense be a problem in Cleveland in late December feels highly possible.
But with the Ravens’ offense still sputtering, it’s hard to see them doing better than 2-2 given their remaining games. Even if they do pull off a win in Pittsburgh to close the season, facing the red-hot Patriots and Packers in back-to-back weeks will be a tall order.
It’s been an underwhelming season for the Steelers – despite Sunday’s win, I really don’t feel any different about this team – but the rest of the conference has disappointed as well.
RP: If you’d asked me a week ago, I would have told you it was unlikely the Steelers would make the playoffs. Now, despite their best efforts to choke away the game in the fourth quarter, the Steelers are in a much better position because they have guaranteed no worse than a split head-to-head with Baltimore.
They still need to win games, but when comparing to Baltimore’s schedule, going 2-2 feels like it could be enough. The Ravens have lost once to the Bengals already, and if their defense was vulnerable to Pittsburgh’s anemic passing attack, the Bengals should be able to drag Baltimore into a shootout. The Patriots have been cruising, and the Packers have as good a shot at the Super Bowl as anyone. Can Baltimore really go 3-0 before facing the Steelers again? Technically, sure, but as they’ve looked recently? I don’t really think so.
Still, the Steelers would do best to win the games in front of them. They can’t get complacent against a 6-7 Dolphins team or division rival like the Browns. The Lions game will be a tough matchup for Pittsburgh, and beating the Ravens twice is always a tall order.
Moreso, if the Steelers aren’t division champions, they’re likely out of the playoffs altogether. The Steelers are currently one game back of the AFC’s current seven-seed (Houston) and eight-seed (Indianapolis), and are only one game up on Baltimore, Kansas City, and Miami.
I mapped out the remaining schedules for all of the AFC contenders and currently have the final playoff field looking like this:
1. New England (14-3) / remaining games — BUF, BAL, NYJ, MIA
2. Denver (13-4) / remaining games — GB, JAX, KC, LAC
3. Houston (12-5) / remaining games — AZ, LV, LAC, IND
4. Pittsburgh (9-8) / remaining games — MIA, DET, CLE, BAL
5. Jacksonville (12-5) / remaining games — NYJ, DEN, IND, TEN
6. Buffalo (12-5) / remaining games — NE, CLE, PHI, NYJ
7. Los Angeles (11-6) / remaining games — KC, DAL, HOU, DEN
As you can see, the absence of a division title would more than likely eliminate Pittsburgh from the playoffs entirely. The Chargers are two games up on the Steelers and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Dolphins or Ravens run the table, they’d have more wins than the Steelers. The Steelers (6-3) currently hold a tiebreaker over the Chiefs (3-5) thanks to their conference record. I should also mention the Colts — who have a tough final four games and just lost Daniel Jones for the year — as they are currently still a game up on Pittsburgh.
With all that said, I think the Steelers will ultimately split their remaining games — beating Miami and Cleveland — and sneak into the playoffs.
Power rank the potential AFC playoff contenders. What is the most favorable matchup they could draw?
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – NOVEMBER 02: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts is tackled by Kyle Dugger #29 of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Patrick Queen #6 of the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second quarter in the game at Acrisure Stadium on November 02, 2025 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images) Getty Images
TeamRBRPAverageBills111Broncos565.5Chargers475.5Chiefs645Colts999Jaguars787.5Patriots354Ravens835.5Texans222
We’ve averaged our rankings of the remaining non-Steelers AFC teams with playoff chances above 10%, basing them on how tough a matchup they’d be for Pittsburgh. The lower the number, the more challenging we believe them to be for Pittsburgh. Even though the Steelers control their own destiny at this point in the year, it’s still rooting season to determine what the best playoff scenario possible could be.
1. Bills (Toughest matchup)
RP: There’s an irrational part of my fan brain that thinks if the Steelers offense could just play a competent level for a full 60-minute game, the Steelers could have a puncher’s shot at stealing a win against the Bills. Josh Allen has had multi-turnover games in the past, and the Bills’ defense is hot-and-cold. We’ve seen the Steelers’ defense hang with the Bills for a half. But that’s the problem. If Pittsburgh can’t keep up offensively, the defense gets worn down and is prone to surrendering historic rushing totals to Buffalo’s rushing attack.
RB: The Texans offense isn’t all that intimidating, but the defense is genuinely terrifying. Its collective talent at every level is enough to wreck the Pittsburgh offense and make the 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers regret playing football for another year. Plus, Houston is on a hot streak as of late, stacking quality wins against the Jaguars, Bills, Colts, and Chiefs. They’re real.
RP: It’s a classic sports cliche, but the Patriots are not the same team that the Steelers narrowly defeated 21-14 in September. Drake Maye has blossomed to the point that he’s entrenched himself in the MVP race, with FanDuel currently only giving Matthew Stafford (-160) better odds than Maye (+200) to win the award. Mike Vrabel still has the Patriots’ defense operating at a high level, and while the Patriots still rely heavily on Maye’s ability to create out of structure on offense, they’ve improved as the season went on, including hanging 32 points on Cleveland’s stout defense. The Steelers are also unlikely to benefit from the same turnover luck they had in the first meeting of these teams.
RB: The Chiefs have a slim chance at making the playoffs (just 11% per NFL.com), but let’s be honest: does anyone in the NFL want to face Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes in the postseason? That being said, Kansas City is below .500 for a reason. The roster outside of Mahomes is deteriorating, as has the schematic advantage Reid’s offense used to have over opponents. But the duo’s collective success and experience in January isn’t something to look past.
RP: What more is there to say other than the Ravens will never, ever be an easy out. The Steelers looked good early in the game, but struggled mightily in the second half and were the beneficiary of some favorable rulings. Baltimore’s defense held Pittsburgh to three total yards in the fourth quarter Sunday. The Steelers didn’t generate a single first down in three possessions in the final quarter, nearly letting a sloppy Ravens team stage a comeback. The Steelers also won the first meeting last year before getting thoroughly embarrassed in the second and third meetings they had. Best to avoid this scenario entirely.
RB: Yep, the current AFC No. 1 seed is ranked No. 6 here. Frankly, neither Ryan nor I are big Bo Nix believers, and the playoffs tend to be where the most pressure is placed on quarterbacks. Still, Denver is a true threat with some quality wins (Eagles, Texans, Chiefs) and hasn’t lost since September. Led by Patrick Surtain II and Nik Bonitto, its defense will cause headaches – I still wouldn’t love the Steelers’ chances in this one.
RP: The Steelers also suffered a pretty embarrassing loss to the Chargers earlier this year, so it feels strange to have them as the third-best matchup for the Steelers. That speaks largely to how banged up Los Angeles is. Justin Herbert has a fractured finger on his non-throwing hand. More alarmingly, the Chargers’ oft-maligned offensive line is down both starting tackles for the year. As we all saw on Monday Night Football, Herbert is taking a lot of hits in the backfield. The Chargers are using Herbert as a designed runner more often, too, exposing him to even more hits. The Los Angeles defense is feisty, and yet seems beatable if the Steelers are on their “A” game. You would hope the Steelers would have a better game plan the second time around.
RB: The Jaguars have been a success story this year, but they’re still difficult to gauge. They’re first place in a competitive AFC South, but have also gone into overtime with the struggling Cardinals and Raiders, blown a 19-point fourth-quarter lead to the Texans, and Trevor Lawrence and his receivers remain highly volatile. Liam Cohen looks to have a bright future in Jacksonville, but like the Broncos, this team doesn’t feel “real” as a contender yet.
RP: I think both Ryland and I are firmly out on the idea of the Colts making the playoffs, which also explains this ranking. The Steelers beat the Colts earlier this year, and Indianapolis will be without starting quarterback Daniel Jones the rest of the year. With Anthony Richardson already on IR and rookie Riley Leonard injuring his knee, the Colts have entered desperation mode and are bringing 44-year-old grandfather Philip Rivers out of four years of retirement. If the Steelers can’t beat a team with those circumstances, I might just walk into the ocean.
Join in on Steelers R&R by sharing your takes on this week’s topics. Feel free to pitch future questions in the comment section or on Twitter/X: tag @_Ryland_B or @RyanParishMedia, or email us at steelersreadnreact@gmail.com.