For a brief second, I’d never been prouder of our survivor pool pick. After 13 successful weeks, we’d avoided yet another trap. The Cleveland Browns were the betting public’s top win-one-and-done situation late in the season when they hosted the Tennessee Titans. We pivoted away from them. Cleveland rewarded our doubt by botching a game-tying two-point conversion in the final minute, allowing us to skip away from certain doom with a song in our heart.

Then I realized I backed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers instead.

Tampa’s spiral worsened with a 24-20 loss to Tyler Shough and the New Orleans Saints, botching an opportunity to build a one-game lead over the Carolina Panthers in the NFC South. That pick furthers a trend that’s crushed me this season; the fact no one is really all that good in 2025.

Last year’s two Super Bowl teams are a combined 2-6 in their last four games. The Green Bay Packers lead the NFC North but managed to lose to the Browns. The AFC East-leading New England Patriots have a loss to the woeful Las Vegas Raiders (in Week 1 and before Drake Maye realized the full extent of his power, but still). The Denver Broncos 10-game winning streak features eight wins in one-score games, which sets up the kind of regression that’s knocked the Kansas City Chiefs to the bottom of the playoff race pecking order this season.

So, with that in mind and my record lagging, let’s try and pick some winners in Week 15.

I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. My 2024 wasn’t as fruitful — Andrew Joseph and his 71 percent hit rate knocked me down a peg in the FTW standings. My 2025, it turns out, is looking pretty mediocre too.

Joining me for 2025 is an eight-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke, who is off this week, and new addition Wajih AlBaroudi) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes, Jordan Tomiyama) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Cory Woodroof and Joseph). Here are our Week 15 picks.

GameChristianRobertCharlesAndrewFalcons at BuccaneersBucsBucsBucsBucsRavens at BengalsBengalsRavensBengalsBengalsJets at JaguarsJaguarsJaguarsJaguarsJaguarsRaiders at EaglesEaglesEaglesEaglesEaglesCardinals at TexansTexansTexansTexansTexansChargers at ChiefsChargers?ChargersChiefsChiefsBrowns at BearsBearsBearsBearsBearsCommanders at GiantsGiantsGiantsGiantsGiantsBills at PatriotsPatriots?PatriotsPatriotsBillsColts at SeahawksSeahawksSeahawksSeahawksSeahawksPanthers at SaintsPanthersPanthersPanthersSaintsTitans at 49ers49ers49ers49ers49ersLions at RamsRamsRamsRamsRamsPackers at BroncosBroncos?BroncosBroncosBroncosVikings at CowboysCowboysCowboysCowboysCowboysDolphins at SteelersSteelers?SteelersSteelersSteelersLast week:7-78-68-66-82025 record:128-78-1 (.621)129-77-1 (.626)137-69-1 (.665)133-73-1 (.646)

And:

GamePrinceJordanCoryWajihFalcons at BuccaneersBucsBucsFalconsBucsRavens at BengalsRavensRavensBengalsBengalsJets at JaguarsJaguarsJaguarsJaguarsJaguarsRaiders at EaglesEaglesEaglesEaglesEaglesCardinals at TexansTexansTexansTexansTexansChargers at ChiefsChiefsChiefsChiefsChargersBrowns at BearsBearsBearsBearsBearsCommanders at GiantsGiantsGiantsGiantsCommandersBills at PatriotsPatriotsBillsBillsPatriotsColts at SeahawksSeahawksPanthersSeahawksSeahawksPanthers at SaintsPanthersSaintsSaintsPanthersTitans at 49ers49ers49ers49ers49ersLions at RamsRamsRamsRamsRamsPackers at BroncosBroncosPackersPackersBroncosVikings at CowboysCowboysCowboysCowboysCowboysDolphins at SteelersSteelersSteelersSteelersSteelersLast week:5-910-47-75-92025 record:125-80-1 (.607)130-76-1 (.631)110-67-1 (.621)25-19 (.568)

Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:

Let’s break out three games to talk about in this dense holiday slate.

Survivor pick of the week: Jacksonville Jaguars (-12) over the New York Jets

Well, lesson learned about backing the NFC South. We’ll see if that shame crosses conferences and the Jaguars find a way to Jags things up.

They’ve avoided that recently; this team has steadily improved despite losing the first round rookie for whom it traded two first round picks (and a second) right as he’d begun to hit his stride. Jakobi Meyers has been a calming influence to a hyperactive offense. His ability to be where Trevor Lawrence needs him to be has had a ripple effect across the skill positions. Jacksonville averaged a solid 22 points per game before acquiring him. It’s at 30.4 with him in the lineup.

The Jets, on the other hand, have two injured journeyman quarterbacks and Brady Cook competing for snaps this week. They’ve scored 11 points or fewer in five of 13 games in 2025. They’re in full “experiment with the lineup and see who sticks around for 2026” mode.

Last week: 0-12025 to date: 13-1 (.929)Hardest favorite to back: Green Bay Packers (-2) over the Denver Broncos

(looks at Denver’s pass rush)

(looks at the Packers-Browns game in Week 3).

Nope.

Upset I kinda-sorta like this week: Denver Broncos (+2) over the Green Bay Packers

Why I like this pick:

Three of Jordan Love’s four losses or ties came against teams that generate pressure significantly more than they blitz (everyone but the Carolina Panthers). The Broncos rank fourth in pressure rate (nearly 40 percent) but only blitz about 32 percent of the time, meaning less room downfield for the lofted back-foot throws that have become the Green Bay star’s hallmark.

Bo Nix has handled pressure well, taking only seven sacks in the four games where he was hassled on more than 30 percent of his dropbacks. Denver went 3-1 in those games, but two wins were over the Raiders so it doesn’t really count. Still, while Micah Parsons will no doubt wreak havoc, the Broncos have a deep enough roster of playmakers to bail their young quarterback out with quick-hit checkdowns and a top-10 margin when it comes to yards after catch.

Why I don’t like this pick:

Nix has found a way to overcome his in-game struggles and rise up when his team needs him. Green Bay just dispatched a similar quarterback, albeit at home, with a last-second interception of Caleb Williams. While the Broncos defense has been dominant, it hasn’t faced an offense as efficient as the Packers… because the Packers lead the league in expected points added (EPA) per play. The thin air of Colorado suggests we could see Love throw a football 70 yards downfield to a streaking Christian Watson, who is playing the best football of his career.

Last week: 1-02025 to date: 8-6 (.571)Upset pick of the week: New England Patriots (+1.5) over the Buffalo Bills

Turns out, there are a lot of upsets I like this week. The Chargers have looked better than the Chiefs this season. Even though Kansas City is at home against a division rival in the wounded animal phase of its season, the uncharacteristic mistakes that have doomed this team in stretches don’t seem to be going anywhere. The Chiefs have hosses up front, but their 23rd-ranked sack rate suggests they won’t be able to maximize their advantage against LA’s injury depleted offensive line.

Elsewhere, I’ve got the Broncos (see above), Cincinnati Bengals (because Baltimore’s defense is… oof) and Carolina Panthers, who are +2.5 point underdogs at Hard Rock’s sportsbook as of December 10 because someone accidentally hit the wrong button. But I want to break down my hometown team and talk about Drake Maye, so here we are.

Why I like this pick:

Mike Vrabel is 6-0 coming off a bye as a head coach. Sure, that means a bunch of wins over mediocre Jacksonville Jaguars/Indianapolis Colts squads, but it’s a testament to his preparation. Drake Maye is the league’s most efficient quarterback. He’ll face a passing defense that’s outpunched its weight class but still so desperate for help it snagged Darius Slay off waivers once the Steelers cut him loose (Slay is deciding whether or not it’s worth about $350k to spend his winter in western New York).

The Patriots only pressured Josh Allen on a quarter of his dropbacks when these teams met in Orchard Park and still managed to limit Buffalo to 20 points in a win. Allen even ran for 50-plus yards and still lost — the only time that’s happened this season. New England is capable of absorbing the reigning MVP’s damage and pushing past it. Now they get to prove it at home.

Why I don’t like this pick:

The Patriots defense is coming in without Milton Williams, who had three pressures and half a sack the last time these teams met. New England’s pressure rate dips from about 40 percent with him in the lineup to 32 percent without him in Week 13’s win over the New York Giants. Despite significant improvements, this defense still has some vulnerabilities against the run, which is terrible news when you’re facing James Cook and Josh Allen.

Last week: 0-12025 to date: 6-7 (.462)