Well, I was certainly wrong on the Cowboys-Lions under as that game soared over and started us off on a sour note to the week. Two other plays ended up splitting to end up with a losing week.

Personally, I feel like the Seahawks and Falcons game was for sure going to stay under the total, but turnovers doomed us with short fields.

On the other hand, I do feel a little lucky to be on the winning side with the Packers despite seeing some market agreement in that game. Please note that if you were late to the party, the Packers line moved to -7 at some spots, which would have been graded as a push, but we got a -6.5 (-113). The little things like wins versus pushes don’t seem like a lot, but they sure add up over the course of a season!

Last week’s record: 1-2, -1.10 units
Season record: 37-24, +11.08 units, +16.6% ROI

Five plays to kick off the week, including one in the Patriots and Bills. I somehow managed to find myself on four totals this week — not sure how I feel about that at the moment — but value is value. Hopefully, we can get back on track with a winning week. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck!

NFL Week 15 best betsNew England Patriots moneyline (+100) vs. Buffalo Bills

Worst price to bet: Patriots moneyline (-110)

Fading Josh Allen with his divisional hopes on the line sounds like a bad idea, and trust me, I’m quite terrified of what that man can do on the football field, but I just can’t get to this price. This implies that the Bills are quite a bit better than the Patriots, and I don’t believe that to be true. The Bills have plenty of issues on the defensive side of the ball. We saw this last week against the Bengals. But this week, Buffalo will face a real defense instead of the one in Cincinnati.

Washington Commanders at New York Giants over 46.5 (-104)

Worst price to bet: Over 47 (-110)

Listen, seeing both of these defenses involved in a game that is sub-47 points is almost an auto-bet for me. Sure, it’s supposed to be colder, and there might be some wind in this game, but as it stands right now, I don’t think that should be too much of a factor. At the end of the day, both of these defenses rank in the bottom three in EPA per play and in the bottom five in success rate. Explosive plays and down-to-down success are expected per my numbers in this game, and I’m not worried about Marcus Mariota playing over Jayden Daniels. Mariota has shown that he’s plenty good enough to score some points in this offense.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints under 40.5 (-110)

Worst price to bet: Under 40 (-110)

Betting an NFL game to stay under 40 points in a dome isn’t for everyone, and I’m not even sure if I’m ready to do this. But my numbers are what they are, and I can definitely see a path to victory here. The Saints’ defense actually does a decent job at forcing negative plays, which I think will force Bryce Young into some third-and-longs, which isn’t a recipe for success. On the other side of the ball, the Panthers defense has been solid this year, and Tyler Shough played better last week, but I’m not convinced it was sustainable. The Saints had four scoring drives, and three of them started on the plus side of the 50. They won the field position battle, which I’ll give them credit for, but I think it made the offense look a little better than it really was.

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks under 43 (-110)

Worst price to bet: Under 43 (-115)

I don’t care who plays quarterback for the Colts this weekend, but it’s going to be tough for them to score points. If it’s Philip Rivers, I don’t need to go into detail on why a guy who hasn’t played in a few years and was just signed to the practice squad a few days ago is a bad matchup on the road against possibly the best defense in the league. If Riley Leonard can go, he has a banged-up knee, which could affect his mobility (a major part of his game), and his arm strength just isn’t quite there. Maybe I should be taking the Seahawks on the spread here, but I’m not too interested in laying two touchdowns. Famous last words, maybe.

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys under 47.5 (-105)

Worst price to bet: Under 47 (-110)

Sure, the Vikings scored 31 points last week, and J.J. McCarthy had his best game as a pro. Maybe he’s figured out his accuracy issues and things are on the up and up. But also, maybe that was a product of the terrible Commanders’ defense.

You might say the Vikings’ wide receivers have had issues with drops, and that is probably true! But looking at the whole year, they have been open, and McCarthy hasn’t been able to find them. I’m still skeptical of this offense’s ability to consistently put up points. On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys offense has been awesome, but it’s a big step up in competition facing the Vikings defense compared to the Lions defense of last week. If the Cowboys jump out to a lead, I’d expect a slightly conservative game plan, which bodes well for this under.