KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The question is simple, and one that Kansas City Chiefs fans have struggled with this week because of their team’s recent struggles.
Why are the Chiefs — 6-7 and having lost four of their last five games — still comfortable 5.5-point home betting favorites against the 9-4 Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday?
DraftKings director of sports operations Johnny Avello, who has more than 30 years of experience as an oddsmaker, is about to get you an answer to that. But first, he says, you must know this from a sportsbook perspective.
“The Chiefs,” he told The Athletic on Thursday, “are still a very good team.”
No, their record doesn’t say it. The Chiefs have found all sorts of ways to come up short in close games, including penalties, receiver drops and an inability to stop opponents in the fourth quarter.
Avello, though, says all that doesn’t have much impact on the Chiefs’ power rating, which is the baseline number an oddsmaker starts with when determining what a game’s opening line should be.
“We still view them as a highly ranked team,” Avello said. “There’s only a couple of teams that would be favored over them on a neutral field.”
The full list for Avello right now? The Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers. And maybe the Seattle Seahawks, though that one might be closer.
Avello’s power rating still likes the Chiefs over any other AFC team, which circles back to the data he says is actually most important. He starts by looking at a team’s offensive and defensive production. He’ll then add in intangibles and coaching. Home-field advantage is used as a later adjustment when determining the exact spread.
This Chiefs squad, even through all the losses, has maintained a lofty power-rating perch. And Avello says he’s not surprised to see K.C. stay up there, even with a sub-.500 record.
“When you look at the NFL this year, can you really say that there are any teams out there that are great teams, both sides of the ball?” Avello said. “No.”
John Ewing, BetMGM’s head of public relations, says its trading team has similar thoughts regarding the Chiefs. In particular, seeing “6-7” next to the Chiefs doesn’t provide full context.
“They are better than their record indicates,” Ewing said. “As long as K.C. is in the hunt for a playoff spot, we expect them to be favored in each of the four remaining games.”
As for Avello, he said he opened Chargers at Chiefs with a 5.5-point spread — one that hasn’t moved yet this week.
The process was the same for other games. Avello compared both teams’ power ratings, added home-field advantage (2.5 points for Arrowhead Stadium specifically), then accounted for injuries, intangibles and coaching before landing on Chiefs by 5.5.
Think that number is off? Avello said you’d be in the minority. So far at DraftKings, 90 percent of the spread bets have been for the Chiefs, while 80 percent of the moneyline wagers have been for K.C. as well.
“So this game may end up moving to six (points),” Avello said. “I think we had the right number initially.”
Avello says the toughest part of handicapping games is not being able to account for certain factors. That can include things like turnovers, which are often fluky but can still swing the game by a few points.
Over time, though, the quality of the team over big samples tends to show through, and that’s where Avello lands with these Chiefs — especially considering the team’s 1-6 record in one-score games.
“All it is for them, basically, it’s the magic’s not there. That’s all,” Avello said. “The difference between having 10 wins right now and having six is so minute.”
It could make for a fascinating few weeks if the Chiefs can keep themselves in the playoff race.
Avello said if K.C. won its final four games to sneak into the postseason, the team would not be an underdog in any AFC playoff game. That means the Chiefs could play on the road in New England or Denver or Buffalo, and they’d have no worse than 50-50 implied odds of winning that game.
“Boy, if they get in, they’ll be dangerous,” Avello said. “Because who’s to say that these three-point losses, they don’t turn around into wins?”
It all gets back to the original point for the Chiefs, though. They must prove they can reverse a season-long trend of shrinking in the biggest moments.
“It’s good to be one of the best teams in the league. It’s good to have one of the higher power ratings. But that goes so far,” Avello said. “You’ve got to win the games out on the field, and that’s just not happening. It’s a strange occurrence for them.”