Each week of the 2025 NFL regular season, I’ll use this space to highlight teams facing various funnel defenses and fantasy options who could benefit.
What’s a Funnel Defense?
A funnel defense, in case you’re wondering, is a defense that faces an unusually high rate of pass attempts or rushes. I’ll take a close look at how opponents are playing these defenses in neutral game script — when the game is within a touchdown either way — and how good or bad these rush and pass defenses have been of late.
Identifying funnel defenses is hardly an exact science, and whacked-out game script can always foil our best-laid plans. It happens. I’ve found it useful in recent seasons to analyze matchups through this lens to see if there are any useful additions to the always-agonizing start-sit process we put ourselves through every week.
With more data, this analysis will improve. It happens every season. We are eyeball deep in data headed into Week 15.
A deep dive into players who are running unsustainably hot or cold going into Week 15, and what it means for your start-sit decisions for the fantasy football playoffs.
▶ Pass Funnel MatchupsCommanders vs. Giants
A mere four teams have faced a higher pass rate over expected this season than the G-people, though the G-people might be considered an Everything Funnel since they can’t stop anyone through the air or on the ground.
Giants opponents have been uber-efficient via the rush this season, but they’ve leaned toward the pass in almost every game against a hapless New York coverage unit. Since Week 9, the Giants have faced a 60 percent neutral pass rate, the sixth highest rate in the league over that stretch.
Marcus Mariota is getting another start this week in the Commanders’ depressing QB seesaw. The last time we saw Mariota under center he averaged a noteworthy 11.7 air yards per attempt and the Commanders racked up a league-leading 499 total team air yards against the Broncos. Washington was two percent over its expected pass rate in that game.
More aggressive downfield throwing for Mariota against a burnable New York secondary could make the grizzled veteran a legit streaming option in one-QB formats and a locked-in superflex play.
Mariota targeted Terry McLaurin on 44 percent of his pass routes two weeks ago against Denver. McLaurin, who racked up 180 air yards against the Broncos, becomes a must-start WR3 play with the sort of upside that could land him in the WR1 range barring sideways game script against the Giants (always a possibility in a game featuring two bad teams). Inflated drop backs for Mariota in Week 15 would presumably benefit Deebo Samuel, who had seven targets from Mariota against Denver, and TE John Bates, who’s likely to operate as Washington’s TE1 with Zach Ertz (knee) done for the season.
Browns vs. Bears
Cleveland’s offensive approach in Week 14 was shocking in its willingness to let it rip through the air, something they had not done at all in 2025. Shedeur Sanders, whose passing profile I broke down in this week’s Regression Files, wasn’t all that accurate, but put up a wild fantasy line (364 yards, three touchdowns, one interception).
The Browns were a season-high 11 percent over their expected pass rate in Week 14 against the Titans. Their neutral pass rate going into Week 14 was 52 percent. Against the Titans, they posted a 59 percent neutral pass rate. It’s a notable shift.
We could see another pass-first approach this week against the pass-funnel Bears defense, which doesn’t have much of a pass rush, leaving the secondary vulnerable. Only six defenses have faced a higher neutral pass rate since Week 9.
The Browns last week almost doubled their total team air yards output, from 146 air yards per game over the season’s first 13 weeks to nearly 300 against Tennessee. Probably that’s not sustainable barring weird game script, but a spike in drop backs and downfield throwing should keep Harold Fannin Jr. in lineups, at the very least. Fannin has seen a target on 27 percent of his routes since Shedeur took over the Cleveland offense. Add an increased route participation rate and a lot of air yards (a team-leading 82 last week), and you have an elite tight end.
Jerry Jeudy remains a thin play, but one that can be used in deeper fantasy leagues. Fresh off three catches for 76 yards, Jeudy could benefit from an increase in pass volume against the pass-funnel Bears defense. That he was targeted on just 12 percent of his pass routes last week against the Titans doesn’t inspire great confidence though.
Last week’s pass-first approach for Cleveland led to 14 rushes for Quinshon Judkins. His lack of involvement in the pass game makes Judkins a little iffy as an RB2 against Chicago. The Bears’ less-than-elite rush defense — they allow the league’s highest rate of rush yards before contact — could open a path to Judkins getting there on limited volume, however.
The Seahawks and Jaguars are massive favorites this week, teeing up Kenneth Walker and Travis Etienne to kick off the fantasy football playoffs with a bang.
▶ Run Funnel MatchupsBroncos vs. Packers
RJ Harvey and the Denver backfield were highlighted in this space last week in their matchup with the increasingly run-funnel Raiders defense, and the Broncos posted a 53 percent pass rate against Vegas, well below their season-long rate.
Only the Rams and Bills have faced a lower pass rate over expected than the Packers this season. As I may have mentioned in last week’s column, Green Bay opponents have shifted hard toward the ground game since Week 9, in part to avoid the team’s pass rush and in part because the Packer rush defense isn’t all that good. Green Bay’s defense has allowed 2.4 yards before contact per rush since Week 9, the ninth highest mark in the NFL. That correlates nicely with rushing production and explosive runs.
Another run funnel matchup for Denver means another week of Harvey profiling as a must-start in 12-team formats. Harvey in Week 14 saw 17 of the team’s 25 rushing attempts, with three of those carries going for more than ten yards. Harvey ran about half the routes in the Denver offense against the Raiders and caught all six of his targets. Importantly, Harvey was targeted on 29 percent of his routes. That’s a through line of the rookie’s pass game usage in 2025: The Broncos intentionally involve him as a pass catcher. He’s not just an outlet valve for Bo Nix when no one else is open.
Harvey is checking all the metrics boxes he needs to check if his weekly touches are going to remain in the 15-18 range rather than the prototypical workhorse 20-25 range.
A lack of pass volume for Denver would make it tough for secondary options like Evan Engram and Troy Franklin to get there for fantasy purposes. Courtland Sutton, who has reasserted himself as the team’s WR1 — seeing a whopping nine first-read targets in Week 14 — could still be started in 12-team leagues, however.
Steelers vs. Dolphins
Miami’s transformation into an offense that Bill Parcels might call antiquated (41 percent neutral pass rate, things of that nature) has coincided with the Dolphins defense becoming a reliable run funnel.
The Dolphins entering Week 15 have seen the league’s fourth lowest pass rate over expected against them. Miami opponents have passed at a 55 percent neutral clip over the past five weeks. It’s not terribly low, but it’s not high either.
I’m fresh off writing in Regression Files about how the Steelers — with their backs firmly pressed against the wall — went pass heavy in Week 14’s upset of the Ravens. They posted a season-high 11 percent pass rate over expected and had a league-high 72 percent neutral pass rate against Baltimore.
Aaron Rodgers’ air yards per attempt saw a slight uptick — from 6 to 6.5 — but added to the increased volume, DK Metcalf had his best game of the season. The Steelers eclipsed 200 total team air yards for the first time in 2025 and Metcalf absorbed 88 percent of that sweet, sweet air yard action.
Who among us would be surprised if Arthur Smith reverted to a run-heavy approach in another must-win game in Week 16 against a run-funnel defense. Jaylen Warren, who over the past three games leads Kenneth Gainwell in carries 36 to 19, would be the primary beneficiary here if the Steelers reel in their pass-first ways of Week 14. Gainwell could see something around 12 touches here thanks to his pass catching (and two-minute offense) role out of the backfield.
I think both Pittsburgh backs are worthwhile 12-team league plays against a Miami defense that has seen 40 percent of the yards gained against them come on the ground, a top-seven rate.