We are officially in the final stretch of the 2025 NFL season with just four games left to play. These are going to be the four games fresh in the memory at the end of the season when voters are submitting their ballots for the end-of-season awards. When it comes to the NFL MVP award, it has become a two-horse race between Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye.

At the end of the day, these things have a way of working themselves out. Still, it won’t hurt that Stafford will play his former team as well as play for the division title on primetime over the next two weeks. If Stafford and the Rams can win those games, it will be almost impossible not to give him the MVP.

However, until then, there will continue to be discussion on who should win MVP between Stafford and Maye. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell recently gave Maye the edge in the MVP race. Said Barnwell,

“Stafford, on the other hand, has better receivers…Davante Adams has been on the field for 72% of Los Angeles’ snaps, and injuries and rest have limited Nacua to 64% of the Rams’ offensive snaps. Sean McVay is not stupid; Stafford has taken just 32 dropbacks this season without either of his star wideouts on the field. He has posted an 83.0 Total QBR on those plays, going 21-of-31 for 280 yards and three touchdowns…On the whole, though, I think most people would agree that Stafford has the two best receivers across both rosters…While the goal of every drive is to get into the end zone, a disproportionate number of Stafford’s scores are short throws to Adams, who has proved uncoverable near the goal line. Stafford already has 14 touchdowns on throws from the 5-yard line and in, which comfortably leads the league.”

Whether it’s that Stafford has an elite play caller in Sean McVay or one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL, they are arguments that have consistently been made against the Rams quarterback. The question really is, how much should these things matter? It would be naive to say that Stafford doesn’t benefit from the situation around him with McVay or Nacua and Adams. At the same time, Stafford makes McVay right when he’s wrong and Nacua and Adams might not be having their respective seasons with another quarterback.

Throughout Stafford’s career, there has been the “Stafford effect” for his wide receivers. There’s a reason Stafford has been the quarterback for two of the best receiving seasons of all time. When Calvin Johnson broke the receiving yards record in 2012, Stafford was his quarterback. Cooper Kupp won the triple crown in 2021 and had the second-most receiving yards in a season with Stafford as his quarterback. That doesn’t even mention that Puka Nacua broke the long-standing rookie receiving yards and receptions record with Stafford as his quarterback.

It goes beyond the record-breaking seasons for Stafford’s receivers. Golden Tate had a career-high 1,331 yards in 2014. That was 255 fewer yards than his previous two seasons combined. It was always the first of three seasons in which Tate went over 1,000 yards with Stafford. Marvin Jones had a career-high 1,100 yards and nine touchdowns with Stafford in 2017. Stafford is the only quarterback to get productive seasons out of Kenny Golladay.

Many were already starting to write off Davante Adams after he failed to hit 1,000 yards for the first time in five seasons. He also hadn’t eclipsed 10 or more touchdowns since 2022. Adams may not eclipse 1,000 yards this season. However, he leads the NFL in touchdown catches with 14. It’s the most Adams has had since 2022.

Does Adams’ skill set certainly help? Again, it would be naive to say that wasn’t the case. However,, Stafford is taking advantage of it. He’s also been a threat outside the red zone. Adams has his highest average depth of target in his career.

This isn’t to take away from anything that Nacua is doing, but Stafford being his quarterback certainly helps. Nacua has the most contested catches in the NFL with the third-most opportunities. Nacua is making incredible plays, but Stafford is giving him that chance and placing the ball for Nacua. Nacua has a 79.3 percent catch rate in contested catch opportunities. This season, Nacua has lined up in the slot on a career-high 36.3 percent of his snaps. His separation score of 0.077 ranks 40th among wide receivers.

For reference, Adams ranks inside the top-10 lined up out wide and when he’s in the slot. Nacua ranks outside of the top-10 in both. That isn’t to say that Nacua isn’t creating separation. He’s the second-most open wide receiver via ESPN analytics. At the same time, his release is much better on the outside than it is in the slot, forcing Stafford to hit more tight windows.

Is it true that Stafford has a good receiving duo in Adams and Nacua? Absolutely. He’s also taking advantage of it and it’s not something that should be used against him. It takes more than just good wide receivers and a good play-caller to play at Stafford’s level. JJ McCarthy has one of the best at both as well and is having one of the worst quarterback seasons in recent memory.

If the Rams and Stafford win the next two games and secure the top seed in the NFC, everything will work out. Barnwell can write, “We have a lifetime achievement award for players; it’s the Hall of Fame, and Stafford is almost assuredly going to end up there one day.” With that said, the media has consistently denied Stafford the achievements that go into consideration for the Hall of Fame.

Many knocked Stafford for his interceptions in 2021. However, the next year Josh Allen received a first-place vote despite leading the league in turnovers. Stafford is the only winning quarterback to throw three touchdowns and not win the Super Bowl MVP. That doesn’t mention that he orchestrated the game-winning drive. Stafford threw for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns in 2011 and didn’t make the Pro Bowl.

These are things that matter in the Hall of Fame conversation as is winning the league MVP. It’s hard to find a player that’s won a Super Bowl and a regular season MVP and not make the Hall of Fame. Joe Theismann may be the only example at quarterback.

Peyton Manning won MVPs with Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne and Kurt Warner won two with Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt. It would be difficult to find quarterbacks to win MVPs without a good supporting cast. While Stafford has a good receiving duo in Nacua and Adams, he’s also maximizing it.