ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The Denver Broncos are 11-2. They are riding a 10-game winning streak and currently hold the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They’ve won 11 in a row at home dating back to last season.

Yet, when the Broncos host the Green Bay Packers (9-3-1) on Sunday, they will do so as 2 1/2-point underdogs, according to BetMGM. Not that quarterback Bo Nix seems to mind much.

“I don’t really care about that,” he said Wednesday. “My mom thinks we’ll win. That’s all that matters.”

Krista Nix has reason for optimism. But if the Broncos are going to beat the Packers and clinch their second straight playoff berth, it won’t come easy against a team that sits atop the NFC North. Here are five keys for Denver to prove the quarterback’s mom right:

Harass Love with base pressure

Vance Joseph has had a knack for dialing up the right blitz at the right time this season. The most memorable instance came when the Broncos defensive coordinator created an unblocked pressure for nickel Ja’Quan McMillian in Week 11 against the Kansas City Chiefs that resulted in a sack of Patrick Mahomes. The play forced a punt, and the Broncos drove for a game-winning field goal on the next possession.

Joseph will have to be judicious, though, about the frequency with which he sends additional rushers at Jordan Love on Sunday. The Packers quarterback ranks first in EPA (expected points added) per dropback against the blitz (0.39), according to TruMedia. He has thrown 11 touchdowns and just one interception when opponents send five or more rushers, and his 8.1 yards per attempt on those plays ranks sixth.

Two of those touchdown throws came in last week’s 28-21 victory against the Chicago Bears. Love drifted back against a seven-man rush on third-and-10 in the second quarter, buying time for Christian Watson (169 yards, three TDs in his last two games) to win his one-on-one matchup and come free for a 23-yard score. On a third-and-3 play near midfield in the third quarter, Love recognized the blitz, stood tall as Watson won inside leverage on a quick slant, and then delivered the short pass on target. Watson did the rest on a 41-yard touchdown.

“He is doing a really good job of getting the ball to the open guy,” Joseph said of Love, who will lead the NFL’s best third-down offense against its top-ranked third-down defense on Sunday. “It’s not one guy he’s forcing the ball to. So it’s tough to see who you can take away or who you can roll coverage to. There’s not much of that on tape. It’s organic. It’s per read. It’s per concept. So you’ve got to play honest.”

The Broncos have blitzed on 30.6 percent of opponent dropbacks this season, the sixth-highest rate in the league, but they are also sixth in pressure rate when sending four or fewer rushers (37.9 percent). Their 36 sacks on non-blitz pass plays are tied with the Browns for the most in the NFL. The Broncos will need Nik Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper, Zach Allen and John Franklin-Myers to consistently win their one-on-one battles to allow Joseph to muddy the picture for Love with his matchup-zone coverages. Luckily for Denver, it’s a formula that has brought success for much of this season.

Create shots when Parsons sits

When Broncos head coach Sean Payton found superstar Las Vegas Raiders pass rusher Maxx Crosby on the field after Sunday’s game, he gave Crosby some insight into how Denver’s offensive staff tried — mostly in vain — to game plan for him. The idea, Payton explained to Crosby, was to have a few shot plays designed to run when the game-wrecking defensive end went to the sideline. The problem, Payton’s assistants told him, is that Crosby doesn’t actually come off the field. Sure enough, the defensive end played all 74 defensive snaps against the Broncos, a unique showcase of stamina for a player who measures at 6-foot-5 and 255 pounds.

Micah Parsons presents many of the same problems. The 26-year-old pass rusher, who landed in Green Bay just before the start of the season after a blockbuster trade with the Dallas Cowboys, has 12 1/2 sacks this season, tied for third in the NFL with Bonitto. Parsons has tallied 5 1/2 of those sacks in the last four games and has routinely made impactful plays against the run. He’s a player who has to be accounted for whenever he is on the field — and sometimes sending extra resources his way isn’t enough to keep him off the board.

“I know it’s going to be a lot for us,” Nix said. “It’s going to be something that we really have to key and we really have to control. He’s one of the best players in the league for a reason. He’s going to make his plays. We just have to limit those plays. He’s a great player, and he’s backed by a great defense. We definitely got our work cut out for us.”

While the Broncos must limit the damage Parsons creates when he’s on the field, it’s just as important for them to find ways to strike big plays when he isn’t. Parsons is a three-down player, but he does take occasional breathers, unlike Crosby. Parsons has played 79 percent of Green Bay’s defensive snaps this season, so roughly four out of every five plays. That’s still a higher play rate than Bonitto (62 percent) or Cooper (61 percent), but the bottom line is there will be opportunities to attack when Parsons is not on the field. In a game that probably won’t feature a bushel of explosive plays, the Broncos must be ready to pounce when Parsons rests.

Finally slow Jacobs — if he plays

If all the games Josh Jacobs played were against the Broncos, he would likely already be on a Hall of Fame path. In the eight matchups against Denver that took place during his time as the lead running back for the Raiders, Jacobs averaged 119 yards of offense and scored nine total touchdowns. The Raiders were 8-0 in those games, in large part because Jacobs’ production helped Las Vegas control the line of scrimmage.

Jacobs is now playing for a different team, and the Broncos’ personnel has changed significantly since he left the Raiders. Nonetheless, Jacobs has remained a force in his second season with the Packers and will present a big test for a Denver defense that ranks first in the NFL this season in opponent yards per carry (3.7) and sixth in TruMedia’s defensive rush success rate metric.

That is, if the 27-year-old suits up.

Jacobs missed his second straight practice Thursday as he deals with a knee injury that he first suffered during a win at the New York Giants on Nov. 16. He missed Green Bay’s following game against the Minnesota Vikings. He played in the Packers’ past two games — victories over the Detroit Lions and Bears — but he told reporters Thursday that he’s “taking it day by day right now,” putting his availability for Sunday’s game in doubt.

Even without tight end Tucker Kraft (ACL injury) since Week 9, the Packers spend more time in 12 personnel (two tight ends) than all but five other teams in the league. Joseph has left his sub packages (five and six defensive backs) on the field even against heavier personnel at times this season. The Broncos are giving up only 2.9 yards per carry when they have five or more defensive backs on the field and are facing formations with two or more tight ends. That’s the second-best mark in the league, and a battle the Broncos must continue to win — Jacobs or no Jacobs — to devote more resources to clouding the picture for Love.

Make Mims’ punt return a springboard

When Marvin Mims Jr. ducked under a tackle and burned down the sideline for a 48-yard punt return touchdown Sunday, it was a reminder of how much impact the third-year speedster can make with even the smallest sliver of space.

“Marv has this really like deceivingly fast speed where, from a distance, you’re like, ‘He’s not running that fast,’” teammate Courtland Sutton said. “But if you’re like on the field with him, he’s covering ground. For not so much of a tall guy, he covers a lot of ground with his stride.”

The Broncos have searched for ways to translate Mims’ ability as an All-Pro returner to the offensive side of the ball since the middle of last season. They appeared to have discovered something down the stretch in 2024 when Mims caught 28 passes for 434 yards and six touchdowns across the final seven regular-season games. In 11 games this season — he missed two games due to a concussion — Mims has only 25 catches for 247 yards and one touchdown. He is averaging 7.1 yards per target, the lowest of his career.

Mims has still come up big in key spots for Denver. Most of his six catches for 85 yards against the Giants in October helped fuel the Broncos’ comeback from a 26-8 deficit. For a receiver who measures at 5-foot-11 and 182 pounds, he’s shown a knack for making contested catches down the field. Against a Green Bay defense that spends most of its time in base personnel, the Broncos should be able to find catch-and-run opportunities for Mims, whether he’s coming out of the backfield or working in the slot. That could be a particularly important part of the game plan if the Broncos are without rookie wide receiver Pat Bryant, who missed his second straight practice Thursday as he recovers from a hamstring injury. If Bryant can’t play, it could mean that practice squad veteran Elijah Moore makes his Broncos debut.

No matter the personnel, though, creating opportunities in open space for Mims should be a priority for Denver’s offense.

“We have to continue to find more touches for him on the offensive side of the ball,” Payton said of Mims, “and we’ll do that.”

Trust a ‘bold’ Nix

The Broncos quarterback smiled Wednesday when he was asked about what appeared, at least based on a camera angle behind the play, to be a no-look pass over the middle of the field to Courtland Sutton during last week’s victory against the Raiders.

“You believe what they’re saying?” Nix said with a grin.

The quarterback said that he did use the look-off maneuver to freeze linebacker Devin White and create the space he needed to fire the ball to Sutton. It wasn’t the most conventional throw of the day, but it represented an important aspect of Nix’s approach to the quarterback position that needs to be given room to breathe in games like the ones the Broncos have Sunday.

“I practice it, and I definitely try it,” Nix said of throws like the one he made to Sutton. “You’ve got to be very bold and comfortable doing it in a game. Sometimes you can get away with your helmet being in some way, and you are peeking another way. Those are just part of the game. You’ve got to have good feel and awareness. In Year 2, I’m going to be a lot slower to do it than a guy like (Rams QB Matthew) Stafford, who’s been doing it forever. He can probably close his eyes and make throws. That’s the fun part of the game; the unique creativity part of the game that I think the players really enjoy. It allows our skill set to show, and it puts us in a situation to sort of manipulate the defense.”

The Broncos have discovered an efficient offensive formula over the past three weeks. They’ve trimmed the penalties. They’ve been more selective with deep shots. They’ve protected the football and largely limited negative plays. It’s a blueprint they’ll need to rely on against a Packers defense that doesn’t give up many explosive plays.

Still, Payton needs to trust his quarterback to “be bold” in key moments and use his creativity to put Green Bay in a bind. It can come from funky arm angles like the one against the Raiders or the one he made while throwing a falling-down touchdown pass to Sutton against the Washington Commanders. It’s something defenses facing Nix know they have to account for, but there also isn’t a tried-and-true blueprint for combating the kind of improvisation Nix can turn to when it matters.

“What he’s shown this year in some big key moments is using his legs,” Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “He’s made some huge plays at the end of the game. I picture the one against Houston at the end of the game, where he went for the big run to lead ’em to the win. Just a really good young quarterback who’s got a really bright future.”