It was hard to imagine the Buccaneers outright missing the playoffs once they started the year 5-1, but now, you don’t have to — that scenario is a game away from coming to pass.
The Buccaneers lost their NFC South game against the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football, falling to 7-7 along the way. That wasn’t the worst of it, though, as it put the Carolina Panthers over the Buccaneers in the NFC South. If the Panthers defeat the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, they can clinch the division and effectively send the Bucs packing with a win over Tampa Bay in Week 16.
Naturally, with stakes like that, Tampa Bay’s playoff percentage has dropped considerably. Here’s what it looks like in the immediate aftermath of their loss against the Falcons:
Buccaneers have back against the wall
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) looks on against the Atlanta Falcons | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Per NFL’s Next Gen Stats, the Buccaneers came into this game with a 71% chance to make the playoffs. A 29-28 loss to the Atlanta Falcons dropped them 17%, and they now sit at a 54% chance to make the playoffs as it stands.
They’re still favored to win the division, in that case, but this likely doesn’t account for the Panthers’ game on Sunday. They play the New Orleans Saints, and if they win that game, they only need to beat the Buccaneers once in two tries to win the NFC South, with the first opportunity coming in Week 16 when they play the Bucs at home. If that is to happen, Tampa Bay’s percentage would likely go down even further, as the Panthers would gain the upper hand.
Tampa Bay hasn’t played great football over the past few weeks, and they’ll have to dig deep down and figure something out if they want to stay afloat. The Bucs beat the Panthers twice last year, with their second meeting going much better than the first — they cooked the Panthers 48-14 in Week 17 last year, but they won a close 26-23 game the first time that would have been a Panthers victory had Chubba Hubbard not fumbled the ball in crunch time.
Buccaneers fans should be anxiously watching Panthers-Saints at 4:25 Sunday, as that game has huge ramifications. They’ll also anxiously watch to see just what the Buccaneers do to try and improve things in this final three-game stretch.
READ MORE: Buccaneers lose starting defender to hip injury during Thursday Night Football
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