It was always understood that as a young quarterback learning a new system, Caleb Williams would need time to acclimate to Bears coach Ben Johnson’s offense. That runway isn’t infinite, though, and this is the point at which he should be turning a corner.
One way to know that’s the case is by taking a look at Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, who went two picks after Williams in the draft last year and has overcome similar coaching turmoil to emerge as one of the favorites to win MVP.
As Williams goes into the game against the Browns on Sunday, he’s doing some things better than he did as a rookie and taking modest steps in Johnson’s offense, but he’s not playing well enough to vault the Bears into championship contention. It’ll be difficult to even make the playoffs — the Bears are in the seventh seed and finish the season against the Packers, 49ers and Lions — without more from him.
The Browns are near the bottom of the NFL at 3-10, but they won’t make it easy on Williams. They have the best pass rusher of this era in Myles Garrett, who has 20 sacks and needs three more to set the single-season record, and are the No. 2 overall defense. They’ve allowed the fewest yards passing, 12th-lowest completion percentage and 14th-lowest passer rating.
Among the 27 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 250 passes this season, Williams ranks 20th in passer rating (87.2), 14th in yards per game (223.7), 12th in touchdown passes (19), eighth in fewest interceptions (six), last in completion percentage (57.8) and 20th in passer rating (87.2).
His two biggest problems have been timing and throwing accuracy. He needs to be quicker and sharper in recognizing open receivers, especially right off the line of scrimmage, and more disciplined in his throwing fundamentals.
Johnson must sort out which issues Williams is capable of fixing immediately and which will take more time because they simply are part of the deal in adjusting to a new offense.
“Both of those things come up,” he said of the two categories. “There’s a lot of thinking going on for him right now. Since the bye week, we’ve opened up all these shifts and motions. When that happens, he’s making sure he’s checking off all the boxes before the snap.
“Because of that, the post-snap play suffers a little bit… It’s something that we’re going to continue to work through. We’re going to get there. I’m not worried about that aspect of it. It’s just a matter of time.”
Johnson believes that strongly enough that he’s willing to bet the season on it.
He could curb the pre-snap complexities and get the Bears back to the simpler version of the offense they ran the first four games, but he is certain the pre-snap actions have boosted the rushing attack, which ranks second in the league, and that Williams will catch up.
While there’s a negligible difference in Williams’ numbers from Year 1 to Year 2, Johnson is higher than ever on his outlook. He said when he took this job that Williams was a big part of the draw — “Having a quarterback helps,” he said with a grin — and he’s more confident now.
More than anything, that’s because of something behind the scenes. Johnson has seen Williams increasingly adopt his vision and raved last week about his “coachability aspect.” One of the surest signs of their alignment is that Johnson isn’t having to point out errors; Williams brings them up himself.
“He’s doing a really good job of being critical of himself,” Johnson said. “We see it the same way. When he’s critical of himself and he’s taking to coaching, good things are coming on the horizon.”
It’s telling that Williams hasn’t stopped talking about how much he loves playing for Johnson even as Johnson has been relentlessly hard on him throughout their 11 months working together. He trusts the coaching he’s getting, and every time he mentions it, it’s a reminder of how poorly Matt Eberflus and Shane Waldron coached him last season.
Williams said last week his communication with Johnson this season is the foundation for what they both hope will be a lasting partnership. And while he recognizes his mistakes, he realizes he’s not going to be able to run this offense as expertly as the Lions’ Jared Goff did with much more experience.
“The details that this offense takes, it’s going to take a little bit more than a year or so to be able to get on [Johnson’s] level to where I can go and speak to the guys and everything’s aligned between him and I and we’re basically saying the exact same thing,” Williams said.
Hypothetically, that’s what it would be like if Johnson’s offense was running optimally, like it in Detroit, and that will take more than just one season. But that’s not what the Bears are asking of Williams at the moment. They don’t need him to be perfect, they just need him to be better. Everything they hope for this season hinges on that breakthrough.