The New England Patriots have a chance to secure the top seed in the AFC and a first-round playoff bye, but they will need plenty to go their way over the final four weeks of the regular season.
Their final four matchups will come against the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets, and Miami Dolphins. They’ll enter this Sunday’s home game against Buffalo with an 11-2 record, tying the Denver Broncos for the best record in the conference.
Denver owns the tiebreaker due to its better record against common opponents.
Our partners at Strat-O-Matic simulated the final four weeks of the NFL regular season to see which playoff seed the Patriots would end up with. Will they earn the No. 1 seed for the first time since 2017?
Here are the simulation results for New England’s final four regular-season games, the final AFC standings, and the first-round playoff matchups:
Patriots’ final four games
Week 15: Buffalo Bills 27, Patriots 24 (OT)
One of the Patriots’ best wins this season came against the Josh Allen-led Bills in Buffalo in Week 5. Our simulation predicts another entertaining showdown this Sunday at Gillette Stadium, though this time it’ll be the Bills squeaking out an overtime victory.
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye completes 29 of his 41 passes for 291 yards while rushing for 41 yards and a touchdown in the losing effort.
Week 16: Patriots 35, Baltimore Ravens 27
The Patriots face Baltimore next week on Sunday Night Football. This sim has Lamar Jackson and Co. giving New England their best shot in primetime, but the Pats bounce back on the road to secure their 12th win of the season.
Maye goes 22-for-28 for 355 yards — the first 300-plus-yard game of his NFL career — and three passing TDs. He adds another TD on the ground to further his case for the NFL MVP award.
Star wide receiver Stefon Diggs also enjoys a big night for New England, tallying six catches for 162 yards and a TD.
Week 17: Patriots 27, New York Jets 16
After a couple of tough matchups, the Patriots’ schedule eases up against the lowly Jets. They secure their 13th win of the campaign, with Maye completing 20 of his 28 passes for 171 yards and two TDs.
Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson rushes for 132 yards and a TD in the victory.
Week 18: Miami Dolphins 27, Patriots 24
The Patriots’ stellar regular season ends with a loss at home to Miami. It’s a rough game for Maye, who wraps up his MVP-caliber campaign with two TDs and two interceptions. He completes 26 of his 36 passes for 224 yards.
Henderson rushes for 65 yards and a TD. Wideout Kayshon Boutte hauls in five receptions for 76 yards and two TDs,
Final AFC standings
With a 2-2 record over their final four games, the Patriots come up just short of the top seed in the AFC. While they finish with the same record as the Broncos (13-4), Denver owns the tiebreaker with its better record against common opponents.
Check out the simulation’s full final AFC standings below:
First-round playoff matchups
No. 1 Denver Broncos: BYE
No. 2 New England Patriots vs. No. 7 Houston Texans
No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars vs. No. 6 Buffalo Bills
No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers
The Patriots get a tough first-round draw in this simulation, as the Texans boast the NFL’s best defense. This matchup would present the most difficult test of Maye’s young career to date.