Every so often in life, you need a genuine friend at your side who can tell you — in the clearest possible terms — that you are about to make a catastrophic mistake.
Someone to snatch your phone away before you can type another word. Someone to tell you, actually, no, those creatures cannot be domesticated, and please just leave them alone.
For you, in your fantasy football life, I am the friend who saves you from your worst impulses. I am here to take you by the arm and lead you away from trouble.
You obviously landed in the championship bracket, so a profitable fantasy season is just two wins away. A third win makes it a legendary season. The greatest obstacle now standing between your team and its trophy is … well, it might be you.
At this exact moment, you are contemplating some wild roster changes — lineup swaps you would have never considered back in October. Right now, you are overthinking this week’s matchup as if it’s a ticking bomb and you must choose which wire to cut.
Take a breath. A long cleansing exhale. Center yourself. Maybe set aside your mobile device, if that’s your fantasy machine of choice.
Let’s discuss three of the biggest galaxy-brain mistakes commonly made by fantasy managers in the playoffs. This is the straight talk you need in these anxious times.
Do not allow an opponent’s lineup to impact your sit/start decisions. That is to say, don’t make the mistake of thinking you can somehow match up with the opposition in any meaningful way. There’s nothing you can do to neutralize or negate their points. You are not Sean McVay attempting to exploit Robert Saleh’s defensive tendencies. Instead, the challenge ahead is simply to outscore “McBride of Chucky,” a scrappy team managed by Dirk from finance. You do not need to force Mike Gesicki into your lineup as some sort of countermeasure against the opposition’s Joe Burrow.
Set the lineup you believe will actually score the most points, as you’ve done all year. That’s how this game works. It’s a simple concept that carried you to the postseason. Keep doing it.
Don’t overreact to the weather. Light snow is nothing to fear. Heavy snow isn’t really an overwhelming concern, either. I’ll remind you that Cincinnati and Buffalo just combined for 754 total yards and 73 points in these conditions:
It’s so satisfying to watch the snow be cleared from the field at Highmark Stadium during the Bengals vs. Bills snowglobe game on Sunday ❄️❄️ pic.twitter.com/40HGxKJxZ6
— AccuWeather (@accuweather) December 9, 2025
Cold temps make for great television and a miserable in-person experience, but there’s zero evidence they suppress scoring. In fact, the data actually suggests tundra scenarios are good for business. There’s no reason to make fantasy decisions based on temperature, as long as the conditions are survivable.
Extreme winds (20-30+ mph) can become a genuine concern for the kicking game or downfield passing attack, but nothing of the sort is currently expected this weekend. All clear as of this writing. Please, no panic benchings.
You can’t plan for garbage time. Don’t get me wrong: Garbage time is great when it happens. It might carry Jacoby Brissett to the Pro Bowl this season. But we can never assume it’s coming, not in any game.
We’re entering a week in which six teams are favored by more than a touchdown, including four double-digit favorites. Vegas certainly expects some amount of garbage time in Week 15. Even if each of those projected blowouts goes according to script, however, you can’t possibly know which oddball players (if any) might benefit in fantasy terms.
And yet many of you are eying the Eagles and Niners as double-digit favorites and thinking surely Tank Bigsby and Brian Robinson are about to detonate in the fourth quarters of their respective games. For days, you have been slowly talking yourself into flexing a reserve running back in a must-win week.
I won’t tell you that such a plan can’t work, but I can say from experience that it usually doesn’t. We should not pin our fantasy hopes on players who need 100 things to break just right to see the field. It’s nice that you can imagine the precise set of circumstances that might benefit a backup, but let’s not assume we can manifest a monster performance.
As we enter the most important stretch on the fantasy calendar, the best approach you can take is to pretend this is Week 6 or 7. Play the game in the manner that got you this far.
Let’s also hope you didn’t get Pitts’d last night …
Kyle Pitts, Mike Evans shine on Thursday
If you told me Pitts just delivered 75% of his career fantasy production in Thursday night’s final-second win at Tampa Bay, I might buy it. I’d at least feel compelled to check the math. Pitts just became only the fourth tight end in NFL history to produce at least 10 catches, 150 receiving yards and three touchdowns in a single game. It hadn’t happened in nearly three decades. He was simply a game-wrecker.
Pitts has been consistently useful during Drake London’s extended absence, but he’d been somewhat unlucky in the touchdown department. On Thursday, positive regression hit hard. He looked dangerously like the generational tight end who was promised. What a night for the true Pitts zealots.
I’m not sure we’ve ever seen a more reluctant touchdown call than this one right here, but it was upheld by replay:
After review it’s a… touchdown!
Kyle Pitts with his THIRD of the night 🙌
ATLvsTB on Prime Video
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Qhap3iexGS
— NFL (@NFL) December 12, 2025
If you happened to run up against Pitts in the playoff quarterfinals this week … um … yikes. Sorry. Brutal beat. At least it takes the pressure off the weekend.
The night may have ended in devastation and despair for Tampa, but the team’s offensive output finally normalized. Baker Mayfield cleared 200 passing yards for the first time in five games, thanks largely to the return of Evans, who had missed the previous six weeks with a fractured collarbone. Evans snagged six of his team-high 12 targets for 132 scoreless yards. If you had any doubts about his fantasy viability moving forward, this catch erased them:
Welcome back, Mike Evans 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/9bkg7L2pdg
— NFL (@NFL) December 12, 2025
Welcome back, 13.
Rome Odunze returns to the practice field
Odunze was sidelined a week ago by a stress fracture in his foot, but he was able to participate on a limited basis on Thursday. His return would be an obvious boost to Caleb Williams and the Bears’ offense, but it might cause us to dial back our enthusiasm for Luther Burden. Last week at Green Bay, in Odunze’s absence, Burden played a season-high 71.4% of the snaps, converting six targets into 67 receiving yards.
Chicago is expected to be brutally cold at game time on Sunday — the phrase “dangerous for outdoor activities” appears in the forecast — but winds should be manageable, and no snowfall is anticipated. Again, we should not allow temperature alone to affect our fantasy decisions.
De’Von Achane is back in business
Achane suffered a rib injury in the first half of last week’s win over the Jets, forcing him from a game in which he’d been completely unstoppable. His status for Monday night’s matchup at Pittsburgh is not yet confirmed, but it was a great sign that he returned to practice on Thursday. Achane reportedly wore a flak jacket and non-contact jersey during a limited session, but any level of activity in the week’s first practice is a positive development.
Jaylen Wright has emerged as Plan B in Miami’s backfield, but he won’t be playable in fantasy if Achane is active as expected on Monday.