Written By Nick Crain | Published at December 12, 2025 Dec 7, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Houston Texans defensive end Will Anderson Jr. (51) and Houston Texans safety Jalen Pitre (5) celebrate after sacking Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) during the first quarter at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

The Houston Texans have been the comeback story of the season so far, and what makes it even more impressive is how quickly the public and the market have had to recalibrate on them.

Coming into 2025, there were pretty high expectations for Houston, and the numbers backed it up. The Texans were around -140 to -150 to make the playoffs, and they were priced right at the top of the AFC South with -105 odds to win the division at major books. Even the Super Bowl number suggested they were real contenders if things broke right, sitting anywhere from +2200 to +3500 depending on where you looked. And the win total was a clean 9.5 at most sportsbooks, including BetMGM, basically daring you to decide whether this was a 10-win team again or a step back.

Then September happened, and it looked like the nightmare script.

Despite all the preseason optimism, the Texans were rock bottom at 0-3 to start the season. And through those first three games, they averaged just 12.6 points per game, the worst scoring offense in the entire league over that stretch.

But there was a glimmer of hope, because the defense looked elite from the jump. There were flashes early that this could be a Super Bowl-caliber unit, arguably the best defense in the NFL, and that’s been proven true. Since that 0-3 start, the Texans’ defense has allowed just 15.7 points per game, and it’s really the unit that helped turn this season around.

Since that 0-3 start, the Texans have gone 8-2. They’re now 8-5 overall. Since the flip starting in Week 4, the offense has scored 24.5 points per game, essentially doubling their early-season output. That’s still roughly league average and this isn’t this explosive, unstoppable offense by any means. But the fact that the defense has been so elite has made it all okay.

When it comes to being one of the best teams in the league, you have to be elite on at least one side of the ball. You either have a defense that can cover for an offense that sputters at times, or an offense that can carry a defense that gives up points. The Texans have shifted into that first category: best-in-the-league defense, with an offense that’s steadily improving.

That improvement showed up even when Davis Mills had to step in for C.J. Stroud during his concussion stretch. They still found ways to score enough to win, mostly because the defense kept making big plays and flipping games.

And from a betting perspective, this is where the story gets fun, because the futures market basically buried Houston early. By late November, various sportsbooks had the Texans all the way out at +750 to win the AFC South, which tells you just how far public confidence had fallen after that start.

Since then, it’s been a real climb, even if it hasn’t been perfect every single week. The stretch that finally put Houston back on the map was the five-game win streak against the Jaguars, Titans, Bills, Colts, and Chiefs. That Kansas City game was the statement. The Texans went into Arrowhead and won 20-10, and Patrick Mahomes had one of his roughest nights of the season: 160 passing yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions.

Overall, what’s flipped this team is that defense. The Texans are No. 1 in total defense at 266.3 yards allowed per game, and they’ve been among the league’s best in scoring defense at 16.0 points allowed per game. They completely suffocate opposing passing games, and they’ve got elite edge rushers in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., who keep quarterbacks uncomfortable all night.

And because this division is loaded, the wild card felt like the most likely path even as Houston started to turn it around. But the landscape has shifted. Houston is right there in the mix, and the odds reflect the buyback. As of now, FanDuel has the Texans at +170 to win the AFC South, and they’ve tightened to +1500 to win the Super Bowl. That’s a massive swing from where they were priced in late November, and it’s basically the market admitting that this team is real again.

With just a few games to go, even if Houston doesn’t win the division, the Texans are in a great position to earn a Wild Card spot. And make no mistake, nobody wants to see this team in the playoffs. One of the hottest teams in the league with an elite defense that can carry them in the postseason, and if C.J. Stroud plays at the level he’s capable of, watch out.