A big AFC East battle is on top on Sunday in this Bills vs. Patriots prediction. The New England Patriots (11-2) have a chance to clinch the AFC East when they host the Buffalo Bills (9-4) this Sunday. This is the second meeting of the season between the rivals. New England went into Buffalo in Week 5 and escaped with a 23–20 win thanks to an Andy Borregales 52-yard field goal with just 15 seconds left.
Even though the Patriots took the victory, Buffalo controlled much of the box score, holding a 25–21 edge in first downs and outgaining New England 363–338. The Bills ultimately lost the turnover battle 3–1, which proved to be the difference. Check out more NFL picks and predictions for free at Winners and Whiners.
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Terms & Conditions Bills need a win to keep division hopes alive
The Buffalo Bills come in riding a two-game winning streak, taking down the Steelers 26–7 before staging a dramatic 39–34 comeback win over the Bengals last week at home in the snow. The offense has looked revitalized, scoring 65 points over the last two games, and Josh Allen continues to carry the unit both through the air and on the ground.
If the postseason began today, the Bills would hold the AFC’s No. 6 seed. However, a win in Foxborough keeps their hopes for the division crown alive and would cut the Patriots’ lead to just one game with three weeks remaining.
Buffalo owns one of the league’s most balanced and dangerous offenses. They lead the NFL in rushing thanks to James Cook III’s breakout season, and Allen remains the ultimate dual-threat weapon, ranking second on the team with 487 rushing yards and leading the Bills with 12 touchdowns on the ground. Khalil Shakir has emerged as Allen’s most reliable receiver this season, giving the Bills another dimension after years of heavy dependence on Stefon Diggs.
Defensively, Buffalo remains elite against the pass, but their vulnerability against the run (28th) has been a problem all season. If they’re going to avenge the Week 5 loss, they’ll need to protect the football and slow down New England’s balanced attack—something they failed to do in the first meeting. Good news for the Bills’ defense is that DE Joey Bosa is set to return from a hamstring injury. He has five sacks and five forced fumbles on the season.
Key Injuries for Bills: CB Christian Benford (toe) is questionable. LB Terrel Bernard (elbow) is questionable. WR Joshau Palmer (ankle) is questionable. Opportunity to clinch AFC East
After opening the season 1–2, the New England Patriots have found their stride, ripping off 10 straight victories to take command of the AFC East. Their most recent win was a dominant 33–15 performance over the New York Giants on December 1, where the Patriots leaned on an efficient passing attack, strong red-zone execution, and their always-reliable defense.
Now coming off a bye week, New England should be fresh and prepared for one of its toughest home games of the season. Drake Maye continues to deliver an impressive rookie campaign, ranking second in the NFL in passing yards, while TreVeyon Henderson has provided timely production in the running game. Stefon Diggs remains Maye’s go-to weapon, leading the team in receiving despite defenses keying on him weekly.
Defensively, the Patriots have returned to their identity, which is physical, disciplined, and elite against the run. They enter the week ranked 3rd in rushing defense and top-7 in both total yards allowed and points per game. With momentum, rest, and home-field advantage, New England is positioned well, but Buffalo’s explosive offense gives them one of their toughest tests of the season.
Key Injuries for Patriots:
LB Robert Spillane (foot) is questionable. Leading tackler
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots PredictionsBills vs Patriots ATS Pick
Despite losing the first meeting, the Bills outgained New England 363–338 and had more first downs, but three turnovers ultimately cost them the game. With the offense scoring 65 points over the last two weeks, and Josh Allen’s ability to run and pass in the snow, I give the Buffalo offense the higher ceiling in this game. The Patriots are coming off a bye, but for as hot as they have been, that bye may work against them and cool them down. This is New England’s toughest test in more than a month, and their pass defense has been inconsistent. If Buffalo protects the football this time, they will win out and cover. I am betting on them to do just that.
Over/Under for Bills vs. Patriots
Both offenses come into this matchup playing at a high level, and the numbers point toward a game that can reach 50 or more. The Bills rank second in total offense and lead the NFL in rushing, while Josh Allen has accounted for 24 total touchdowns. New England counters with a top-10 offense of its own, with Drake Maye playing at an MVP level, leading the Patriots to average 27 points per game.
Buffalo’s weakness is their run defense, which should give New England plenty of scoring opportunities in potentially snowy conditions. With two excellent quarterbacks and playmakers who can exploit even the toughest defenses, I like the over.
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