By sundown on Sunday, the Chicago Bears may have eliminated the Minnesota Vikings from the playoffs. The Bears won’t be anywhere to be found in Dallas, but Chicago would have to lose out, and Minnesota would have to win out for the Vikings to make the playoffs this year.
Such is life as a 5-8 football team.
In another universe, this would have felt like a monumental game. The Vikings would play at Jerry World in primetime, then get a breather on the road against the New York Giants before hosting the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers to finish the season. Detroit is already a Thursday game on Christmas; the Vikings would likely be playing Green Bay in primetime if it had playoff implications.
Alas, the Vikings never capitalized on winning in Detroit. Four straight losses later, including J.J. McCarthy’s career-worst game in Lambeau, there will be a little less light coming through the (poorly designed) sunroof at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.
Still, the stakes for McCarthy are evident. He failed to build on his performance in Detroit, resulting in a lost season. However, he was 16 of 23 for 163 yards and three touchdowns last Sunday against the Washington Commanders, reviving hope in his future as a franchise quarterback.
Kevin O’Connell simplified things for him, and the Vikings got out to an early lead. That allowed Minnesota to run the ball and the defense to blitz Jaden Daniels into oblivion.
McCarthy can’t turn the Vikings into a playoff team by building off the Washington game. Still, he’s the only potential franchise quarterback available to Minnesota next year. Mac Jones is probably their best outside option, but he’s likely more of a floor-raiser like Kirk Cousins. Anthony Richardson may have upside, but he’s a project. Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers are past their prime.
A strong performance would allow McCarthy and the Vikings to build toward playing spoiler at the end of the season. Minnesota should beat the New York Giants on the road following the Dallas game. After that, the Vikings host the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers, with playoff implications for their opponents.
However, McCarthy isn’t the only player who has something at stake on Sunday night. Justin Jefferson has to want to have a monster game in primetime. Jefferson has only four catches for 15 yards in Minnesota’s last two games. He’s averaging a career-low 62.3 yards per game, nearly 30 yards less than his 91.6 in six seasons.
Jefferson said he was happy with winning after the Washington game, despite his lack of production. However, he has only 810 yards on the season and would like to reach 1,000. He managed 1,074 in his injury-plagued 2023 season and should be able to eclipse that number this year.
“With the difficulty of this season, the adversity, a lot has gone on over this year,” he said. “So to be able to still overcome that and to get 1,000 yards is something that a lot of people are not able to do with even the best situations [is an accomplishment].”
McCarthy also needs to establish a connection with Jefferson. Last Sunday, the Commanders focused on taking Jefferson away, so McCarthy found Jordan Addison (4 receptions, 62 yards) and Jalen Nailor (3 for 30) to keep moving the chains. He also leaned on his tight ends, hitting Ben Sims for his first completion, and Josh Oliver (2 touchdowns), and T.J. Hockenson (1) on scoring plays.
Like any quarterback, McCarthy must adjust to what the defense gives him. Still, he and the Vikings will be most successful if he can unlock Jefferson for chunk yardage.
“He sees the game completely different than I do from his perspective,” said McCarthy. “Being able to see what he does on tape, on the backside of things, and me coming to the sideline and seeing something on the iPad and saying, ‘Hey, maybe if we throttle this down right here and he calls it again, that’s going to be a nice void right there for you to sit and catch that ball.’”
Ultimately, the Vikings can win Sunday’s game as 5.5-point underdogs if the offense complements the defense. Dallas gives up 378.6 yards per game, fourth-worst in the league. However, they average 394.9 yards per game, the highest in the NFL.
Minnesota’s defense has played well all year, even in the blowout loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Still, the Cowboys will be a meaningful test. If Brian Flores’ unit can hold Dak Prescott and Co. in check, McCarthy should be able to do enough to pull off the upset win.
It will only matter so much in a game that the Vikings may enter without any chance of making the playoffs. Still, it’ll be a measuring-stick game for McCarthy as he tries to enter the offseason looking like a potential franchise quarterback.