Week 15 is a big game for the Buffalo Bills as they take on the New England Patriots. Entering the weekend, the Patriots are in first place in the AFC East with an 11-2 record while the Bills are behind them at 9-4.

New England also currently has the tiebreaker after knocking off the Bills in Week 5. That was the first loss of the season for Buffalo, as they fell to 4-1 following the 23-20 loss.

MORE: Bills make risky move for elite talent with health concerns in 2026 mock draft

Buffalo looks to even things up this weekend as they head to Foxborough, which won’t be easy. New England also hasn’t lost since Week 3, making this an even tougher task for the road team. That said, how does the tiebreaker work if the Bills defeat the Patriots this weekend and eventually catch them in the AFC East?

Who has the tiebreaker if the series is split between the Bills and Patriots?Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen practices before the game at Highmark Stadium.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen practices before the game at Highmark Stadium. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Even if the Bills win this weekend, they’ll still be behind the Patriots in the standings. They could catch them, but they need some help from some of their AFC East counterparts.

New England would still have the tiebreaker since they’re 3-0 in the division, and would be just 3-1 even if the Bills win. Buffalo, on the other hand, is 2-2 after suffering losses to New England and the Miami Dolphins.

After Week 15, the Patriots visit the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16 and the New York Jets in Week 17. Their final game is at home in Week 18 against the Miami Dolphins.

MORE: Snow game possible for Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Week 15 matchup

Buffalo has a road game against the Cleveland Browns in Week 16, followed by the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Jets at home.

The easiest path for Buffalo to win the division would be winning out and having the Patriots lose at least two games. If they do tie, and New England loses one more AFC East game, then their results against common opponents come into play to decide the tiebreaker.

That’s also currently in New England’s favor, which is 6-0 compared to 4-2 against opponents shared with the Bills. That can change down the stretch, but Buffalo clearly needs help to win the division.

Buffalo Bills RB James Cook runs between New England Patriots LB Anfernee Jennings and CB Christian Gonzalez.

Buffalo Bills RB James Cook runs between New England Patriots LB Anfernee Jennings and CB Christian Gonzalez. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

— Sign up for OnSI’s Free Buffalo Bills Newsletter —

Josh Allen ‘can feel the love’ from Bills’ undrafted WR becoming trustworthy optionBills’ Sean McDermott gets testy when asked about Darius Slay againSecond-place Bills still attracting America’s attention at decade-high ratesJosh Allen’s ‘Madden’ level TD production results in another historical first