After fighting their way back into the NFC playoff race with a wild 11-day stretch that featured wins over the Las Vegas Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, and Kansas City Chiefs, the Dallas Cowboys saw their postseason hopes take a big hit when they kicked off the Week 14 slate with a dreadful 44-30 defeat to the Detroit Lions.

Nevertheless, even at 6-6-1, America’s Team is still alive heading into its Week 15 matchup in primetime on Sunday night with the Minnesota Vikings. But when you look at the postseason picture below, which we’ve updated to include the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ loss to the Atlanta Falcons this past Thursday night, it’s quite clear the Cowboys really only have one path to the playoffs.

Los Angeles Rams (10-3, 1st NFC West)Green Bay Packers (9-3-1, 1st NFC North)Philadelphia Eagles (8-5, 1st NFC East)Carolina Panthers (7-6, 1st NFC South)Seattle Seahawks (10-3, 2nd NFC West)San Francisco 49ers (9-4, 3rd NFC West)Chicago Bears (9-4, 2nd NFC North)Detroit Lions (8-5, 3rd NFC North)Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7, 2nd NFC South)Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1, 2nd NFC East)Minnesota Vikings (5-8, 4th NFC North)

As you can see, securing one of the three wild-card slots would be next to impossible, even if the Cowboys win out to get to 10 victories. However, with the Eagles dropping their third straight this past Monday night to fall to 8-5, the NFC East is still in play. With that in mind, let’s have a quick look at how Dallas can get this done.

The Cowboys likely have to win out to win the NFC East (and get some help)

Before we crunch the numbers, here’s what the remaining schedule looks like for both teams and the current record of each of their opponents.

Week

Cowboys

Eagles

15

vs. Vikings (5-8)

vs. Raiders (2-11)

16

vs. Chargers (9-4)

at Commanders (3-10)

17

at Commanders (3-10)

at Bills (9-4)

18

at Giants (2-11)

vs. Commanders (3-10)

As you can see, the Cowboys have a favorable slate with three very winnable games. The problem, of course, is that the Eagles do as well. And if the Birds take all three of their winnable matchups and lose to the Bills, it’s over for Dallas, as Philly would finish 11-6. So, even if the Cowboys win out, 10-6-1 obviously doesn’t get the job done.

But if the Cowboys win out to finish 10-6-1 and the Eagles go 2-2 the rest of the way to finish 10-7, the division belongs to Dallas.

The Cowboys could drop one game to finish 9-7-1, but the Eagles would have to go 1-3 to finish at 9-8. And if Dallas drops two to finish 8-8-1, Philly would need to go 0-4 to finish 8-9.

All of these scenarios are technically possible, of course, but those last two certainly don’t seem very likely. Now, we just sit back and wait to see how things play out.