I’m not sure who was more boneheaded last week, the Commanders for rushing Jayden Daniels back from a serious elbow injury to play in a meaningless game or me for building a lineup around Daniels.
For the sake of self-preservation, I’m going to go with the Commanders, but there’s no time to dwell on the past.
We’re on to Cincinnati.
The Ravens get a rematch with the Bengals after being thumped 32-14 by Cincy on Thanksgiving night.
This is basically an elimination game for Lamar Jackson and Co., with Baltimore trailing the Steelers in the AFC North by a game and a division title being the Ravens’ best shot at making the playoffs. Pittsburgh hosts Miami on Monday Night Football, and Baltimore can’t afford to fall behind two games with three remaining, especially after losing to the Steelers last week.
Since Joe Burrow looked and sounded like he needed a hug this week, I’m playing this potential high-scoring affair through Jackson.
I’m also including a triple-stack from a Lions-Rams showdown that includes the season’s highest game total (55½).
The Preamble
Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.
On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.
Here is my optimal lineup for today’s NFL $2.5 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.
All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.
The optimal lineup has netted $120 this season, so I’m in the red $145 with an average score of 134.53 points through 14 weeks.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 95.52
Week 2: 124.90
Week 3: 181.44
Week 4: 142.88
Week 5: 162.24
Week 6: 117.24
Week 7: 116.46
Week 8: 158.26
Week 9: 146.94
Week 10: 114.44
Week 11: 118.68
Week 12: 147.58
Week 13: 119.72
Week 14: 137.12
Week 15 lineup
QB: Lamar Jackson, Ravens ($6,400)
Baltimore’s matchup with the Bengals produced game totals of 79 and 69 points last season, with the Ravens winning 41-38 and 35-34. Thanksgiving night would’ve delivered something similar if Baltimore could’ve kept from sabotaging itself. Before Week 13, Jackson had scored at least 22.88 DraftKings points in five of his previous six meetings with Cincy. The two-time MVP is currently priced at a significant discount, which makes sense with his recent struggles, but that’s exactly when we’re supposed to play him. Jackson provides a higher cost-considered ceiling than just about any other player on the slate.
RB: Derrick Henry, Ravens ($7,300)
Death, taxes, play running backs and tight ends against the Bengals. Especially running backs who are future Hall of Famers, who weigh 252 pounds and in sub-freezing temperatures feel like you’re trying to tackle a 6-foot-3 diamond.
RB: Woody Marks, Texans ($5,600)
Marks is good chalk this week. Houston is a 10½-point favorite at home this week against the Cardinals. The dynamic rookie has at least 16 touches in five straight games and at least 20 in the last two. According to Fantasy Pros, Arizona has allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-most rushing yards per game and the highest missed tackle rate since Week 10.
WR: Jameson Williams, Lions ($6,100)
Both defenses in this potential offensive bonanza are elite at stopping the run, and I expect Detroit to maintain uber-aggressiveness throughout since this is a must-win (the Lions are currently eighth in the NFC). Even with a zero-point game, Williams has averaged 18.4 DK points per game since Detroit’s bye, while Amon-Ra St. Brown (removing the game he got injured) has averaged 17.96 DK points per game since the Lions’ bye. I don’t believe there are really any wrong answers with this matchup. These are the two-best offenses in the NFL, and anyone with equity in the passing game this week has a high ceiling.
WR: Terry McLaurin, Commanders ($5,400)
McLaurin has 20 targets in two games since returning from a quad injury. The Giants have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including the seventh-highest deep ball completion rate, the third-most deep passing yards per game and the eighth-highest passer rating to downfield passing.
WR: Tutu Atwell, Rams ($3,300)
Atwell has missed the last six games with a hamstring injury, but he was just activated off injured reserve. Players like Atwell, Lions receiver Isaac TeSlaa or Rams tight end Colby Parkinson are all in play, offering both ceiling and salary relief. Atwell has a good rapport with Matthew Stafford, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Stafford takes a few shots with him to test Detroit’s banged-up secondary.
TE: Isaiah Likely, Ravens ($3,400)
Flip a coin between Likely and Mark Andrews. The Bengals hemorrhage fantasy points to the position.
FLEX: Puka Nacua, Rams ($8,700)
The Lions utilize man coverage at rates near the top of the league, and that’s a no-no when facing Nacua.
DST: Houston Texans ($3,600)
One of the league’s best defenses at home against a team that will throw a lot.