Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 15’s game between the Houston Texans and the Arizona Cardinals.
NRG is the kind of dome where a contender can make a bad team feel small. Arizona walks in battered and searching, with the season already drifting into evaluation mode. Houston walks in with real January ambition and a defense that has started to look inevitable. The week’s noise lives in the injury cloud around Arizona’s premium spots and Houston’s protection health. This is where the schedule stops being a story and starts being a scoreboard. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 15’s game between the Houston Texans and the Arizona Cardinals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Houston’s offense has not carried clean momentum, and that matters with a big spread. Their EPA per play since Week 10 swings from 0.089 to -0.066, -0.063, 0.011, then -0.075. Their red-zone touchdowns swing too, from 80.0% in Week 10 down to 33.3% in Week 11, then back to 50.0% last week. C.J. Stroud has still been the best quarterback in this game by efficiency. He’s 198-of-308 for 2,181 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. His advanced line holds at 45.93 total EPA and 0.127 EPA per play. The problem is the pocket, not the arm. Houston’s pressure rate allowed exploded to 68.6% in Week 14 on 35 dropbacks. That kind of chaos makes even efficient passing look like survival. It also keeps the ground game from creating easy explosives, because Houston’s explosive run rate fell to 0.0% last week.
Arizona’s quarterback story gives them a path to competence, but it also feeds the under. Jacoby Brissett is 229-of-346 for 2,459 yards with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions. He’s positive by advanced efficiency at 8.27 total EPA and 0.020 EPA per play. Kyler Murray has been even sharper per snap in his smaller sample. He’s 110-of-161 for 962 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions, plus 0.048 EPA per play. Either way, Arizona absorbs hits. Brissett has taken 29 sacks, and Murray has taken 16 in five games. That sack exposure matters against a defense that can spike pressure into the stratosphere. Houston generated pressure on 57.1% of dropbacks in Week 14, and they were above 56.0% in Week 10. Arizona also brings its own offensive volatility, with EPA per play bouncing from -0.228 to 0.090, then -0.147, -0.020, and -0.062. Their play volume has also slid from the mid-70s down to 61 plays in each of the last two weeks. That’s what a constrained offense looks like.
The skill-player levers point toward shorter throws and fewer possessions. Nico Collins is the Texans’ wide receiver centerpiece, leading with 103 targets, 916 yards, and a 23.5% target share. Dalton Schultz is the safety valve at 84 targets and a 19.1% share, but he has only one touchdown. The backfield is functional, not explosive. Woody Marks has 160 carries for 554 yards at 3.5 per rush, plus 20 catches and three receiving touchdowns. Nick Chubb sits at 115 carries for 472 yards at 4.1 per rush, and his rib status has hovered all week. Those numbers fit an offense that can move the chains but sometimes stalls near the goal line. Arizona’s levers scream volume to the middle. Trey McBride has 127 targets, 93 catches, 937 yards, and eight touchdowns with a 26.1% share. Michael Wilson sits at 94 targets and a 19.3% share, with 712 yards and three touchdowns. Marvin Harrison Jr. has 69 targets, 594 yards, and four touchdowns, but the heel issue has lingered into this weekend and he’ll be out. When that perimeter threat dims, the ball compresses toward McBride and the short game.
Cardinals vs. Texans pick, best bet
The counterargument to the under is simple: the Arizona defense can’t stop the pass, and Houston can score. Arizona’s pass rush cratered to 12.9% pressure generated in Week 14, after living around 36% for a month. Josh Sweat can still wreck a snap with 11.0 sacks and four forced fumbles, but the unit has not created consistent disruption. Budda Baker can erase mistakes with tackling volume and rally speed, but that doesn’t fix leaky coverage snaps. Houston’s play-action efficiency can also spike, reaching 0.678 EPA per play last week. If Stroud gets even a modestly clean pocket, Collins can flip the field quickly. A 20–10 or 27–13 Houston win still lands near the total, and a couple short fields can push it over.
I still want under 42.5 at DraftKings, because both offenses carry structural anchors that align. Houston’s protection looks shaky right now, and that 68.6% pressure allowed number is not something I ignore. Arizona’s offense has lived in the negative, with a 26.9% first-down success rate last week and only 33.3% third-down conversions. Those are the stats of an offense that burns downs. Houston’s defense can also take the air out of a game by forcing sacks and checkdowns, and their pressure generation spikes match perfectly against Arizona’s sack exposure. Arizona’s red-zone efficiency looks steadier than Houston’s lately, but they also reach the red zone less often. Houston’s own red-zone history is inconsistent enough to waste drives even when they win yards. With the spread sitting at Texans -9.5 and the moneyline priced like a formality, I expect Houston to prioritize control once they get a lead. That control usually favors the under, not the over.
Under 42.5 (-115); Texans 23, Cardinals 13.
Best bet: Texans vs. Cardinals u42.5 total points (-115)
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For a prop lean, I’m riding Trey McBride eight-plus receptions at +120, because this matchup scripts volume, not splash. McBride owns 127 targets and 93 catches, commanding 26.1% of Arizona’s targets in an offense built to survive pressure. Jacoby Brissett completes 66.2% of his throws and has taken 29 sacks, which keeps the ball coming out fast and inside. Kyler Murray has been more efficient at 0.048 EPA per play, but he’s still absorbed 16 sacks in five games, reinforcing the same quick-game answers. Houston’s pass rush can spike above 57% pressure, and that kind of heat funnels throws to the tight end by design. This number doesn’t need explosives or touchdowns; it needs rhythm and survival. Eight catches can come in a loss, in a low total, and without a single red-zone snap, which makes the plus price the right side of the math.
Best prop lean: Trey McBride 8+ receptions (+120)
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