The Miami Dolphins will play the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football at Acrisure Stadium in Week 15 NFL action. We have you ready to go with our Commanders vs. Giants prediction, preview, and picks. Kick-off from Pittsburgh, PA, is at 8:15 p.m. ET.
The Steelers are three-point spread favorites, and the game total is 42.5 points scored.
These teams last played in 2022, a game Miami won 16-10. Pittsburgh won six of the previous eight games. If you want the Dolphins vs. Steelers prediction, read on and check out our NFL Picks to beat the sportsbooks!
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Terms & Conditions Dolphins are coming off a dominant rushing performance
Miami (6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS, and 7-5-1 O/U) beat the New York Jets 34-10 last week, covering the spread as 2.5-point favorites.
The Dolphins dominated New York on the road, picking up their fourth consecutive win. Miami led 21-0 early and never relented, outgaining the home team by over 150 yards. Both teams were dreadful on third down (the Dolphins went 2-for-10 and the Jets went 1-for-12), but the visitors were able to generate big chunk plays on the ground (41 carries for 239 yards). They also forced three Jets interceptions, holding the football for over 12 more minutes than the Jets.
Sixth-year NFL pro Tua Tagovailoa leads the Miami passing game with 2,407 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He has completed 66.9 percent of his attempts, averaging 6.8 yards per pass. Tagovailoa’s top receiving targets are WR Jaylen Waddle (57 receptions for 812 yards and six TDs) and RB De’Von Achane (55 receptions for 383 yards and four TDs). Achane also leads the Dolphins’ ground game with 193 carries for 1,126 yards and seven rushing scores.
Miami scores 21.6 points per game (22nd) and averages 304.6 total yards (25th), including 178.2 passing yards (28th) and 126.5 rushing yards (8th). The Dolphins’ defense gives up 22.8 points (15th) and 334.5 total yards (19th) per game, including 202.6 passing yards (12th) and 131.9 rushing yards (25th).
Miami Dolphins Injury Report: RB De’Von Achane, C Aaron Brewer, and CB Jack Jones are expected to play against Pittsburgh. DB Elijah Campbell (ankle/knee), CB Rasul Douglas (foot), S Ifeatu Melifonwu (thumb/groin), OLB Chop Robinson (oblique), and TE Darren Waller (rest) are questionable to play on MNF. Can Pittsburgh build momentum for a playoff push?
Pittsburgh (7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS, and 7-6 O/U) beat Baltimore 27-22 last weekend, pulling off the surprising upset as six-point road underdogs.
The Steelers bounced back from consecutive losses to Chicago and Buffalo with a huge division victory, as Aaron Rodgers passed for a touchdown and rushed for another. The Ravens nearly rallied from an 11-point deficit in the fourth quarter, but a couple of big calls went against them. They outgained Pitt by over 100 total yards, holding the visitors to just 34 rushing yards, but were just 2-for-6 in the red zone.
Rodgers leads the Pittsburgh passing attack with 2,370 yards, 20 touchdowns, and seven picks. He has completed 65.4 percent of his passes, averaging 6.9 yards per pass. The vet’s top receiving targets are WR DK Metcalf (52 receptions for 753 yards and five TDs) and TE Pat Freiermuth (28 receptions for 307 yards and four TDs). The Steelers’ run game is led by RB Jaylen Warren (159 carries for 652 yards and four TDs).
Pittsburgh scores 23.7 points per game (14th) and averages 284.5 total yards (27th), including 195.2 passing yards (23rd) and 89.2 rushing yards (29th). The Steelers’ defense gives up 23.9 points (19th) and 369.3 total yards (28th) per game, including 244.0 passing yards (27th) and 125.3 rushing yards (21st).
Pittsburgh Steelers Injury Report: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR DK Metcalf, LB Patrick Queen, and S Kyle Dugger will play against Miami. OLB T.J. Watt is out due to a lung issue. DT Cameron Heyward, TE Darnell Washington, WR Calvin Austin III, OG Andrus Peat, CB James Pierre, DT Derrick Harmon, and LB Malik Harrison are questionable to play on MNF. Dolphins vs. Steelers Pick and PreviewSpread Pick for Dolphins vs. Steelers
I lean towards Miami’s side ATS. Tagovailoa has drawn his fair share of criticism for his poor play in cold weather, but he won’t have to be the hero with Achane expected to play. Miami’s run game was explosive last week, and Pittsburgh’s run defense is average. Plus, DTs Heyward and Harmon are banged up, and with Watt sidelined, the Steelers’ pass rush will take a hit. After giving up 217 yards on 40 carries last week, the Dolphins should run wild on Monday night.
Rodgers looked great last week against a bad Ravens defense, but can he sustain that level of play this week? The Miami pass defense has improved since the start of the season, ranking 8th in DVOA against the pass since Week 10. The Fins’ run defense has also been excellent, ranking 7th against the run for the year.
Over/Under Pick for Dolphins vs. Steelers
Betting Trends: Neither team features an explosive offense. That’s been evident in the totals in their games, as the under has cashed in five of Miami’s last six games, and four of Pittsburgh’s last six.
The Dolphins will run the football as much as possible at a banged-up Steelers front. Achane is good to go and will be ready to pick up where he left off against the Jets. Don’t expect much from Tua, though, as the Alabama product ranks 29th in EPA per play over the past four weeks. Miami’s poor line play (25th in pass-block win rate) certainly hasn’t helped him, either. As I mentioned in the spread analysis, I’m not convinced Rodgers can rise to the occasion in consecutive weeks. With Miami improved against both the run and the pass, Monday’s total is unlikely to surpass the 42-point mark.
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