The Chargers can advance to a playoff probability of 95 percent and all but eliminate the Chiefs with a win on Sunday.

Here’s a few reasons to be pessimistic about LA’s ability to get it done.

Arrowhead chills

Even with how much the Chiefs have struggled this season, the Chargers have not beaten Kansas City in Arrowhead since 2021 and are set to play their coldest game of the year by over 25 degrees. Los Angeles has struggled in 10 am road kickoffs this season, but most of those trips have been on the East Coast. While not quite that far of a trip, the Chargers still will need to wake up and bring their own heat early on to get themselves into the game.

Offensive line reshuffling (again)

Right tackle Trey Pipkins III (ankle) was ruled out and Bobby Hart will start on Sunday. The Chargers had already used 19 offensive line combinations heading into the game against Philadelphia on Monday. Hart played relatively well in relief of Pipkins earlier this season and Jamaree Salyer has been competent at left tackle during the last two weeks, but offensive lines operating as a unit require time and chemistry. Lacking that heading into a matchup against Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo seems like a losing proposition.

Missing quick game

The Chargers have struggled to get the passing game going in recent weeks – Justin Herbert has not thrown for more than 200 yards since Week 10 against Pittsburgh. Los Angeles has tried to open up their complete passing playbook in those three games since, which has mostly resulted in Herbert scrambling as the offensive line allows yet another pressure or hit on their quarterback. That’s depressed the production of every Chargers receiver, but perhaps most impactful for Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston, who have combined to catch 13 passes in LA’s last 3 games. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has largely shied away from getting his weapons designed touches or quick throws in those contests and there appear to be no signs of it coming anytime soon.

Under center runs

While Kansas City’s lack of a run game has been a significant talking point all season, the Chiefs have actually been relatively successful when running the ball under center this year, and they expect guard Trey Smith to return after a multi-week absence due to an ankle injury. The Chargers are a hard team to convince to move into base defense against heavier offensive looks, and they will likely be even harder to trick, with third linebacker Troy Dye a DNP so far this week with a hip injury. With some light boxes and personnel on the field, the Chiefs can get a bit moving on the ground if they stick with it.

Backs against the wall

On paper, the Chargers are the better and hotter team entering Sunday’s matchup. But football games are rarely won on paper, and the Chiefs have much more to be fighting for with their playoff lives on the line from this week onward. Kansas City has to win out to have a chance at making the playoffs in the AFC due to tiebreaker losses to the Jaguars, Texans, and Bills and is facing a divisional opponent at home. LA, meanwhile, still has a 68 percent chance to make the playoffs with a loss, per The Athletic, and may face a bit of a hangover after toughing it out in an emotional overtime win over Philadelphia only six days before Sunday.