Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for Sunday’s game between the Washington Commanders and New York Giants in NFL Week 15.
Week 15 of the NFL regular season has arrived, bringing a loaded slate of games on Sunday. At 1 p.m. EST, a rivalry matchup between the Washington Commanders and New York Giants pits a couple of struggling franchises against each other. Their records may not be the best, but there’s still plenty of reason for both squads to show up and put forth their best effort to down a division opponent.
Read on for a Commanders vs. Giants prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Week 15 contest.
Commanders vs. Giants prediction, preview
Washington Commanders
At 3-10, it’s been a nightmare season for a Commanders squad that had aspirations of making another impressive postseason run with Jayden Daniels. Unfortunately, the young quarterback missed most of the season due to injury and is once again out, leaving Marcus Mariota under center for this game. Washington’s offense averages just 20.2 points (24th) and 327.5 yards per game (18th), but the good news is that Terry McLaurin will play his third straight game and provide a standout receiving option after missing most of the season himself due to injury. The Commanders lacked much of a passing attack for most of the campaign and probably won’t significantly improve from their 191.0 passing yards per contest (24th), but they do try to establish the run with 136.5 rushing yards per game (fourth-best). That’s particularly impressive given the lack of a strong offensive line and three-way backfield split between Chris Rodriguez Jr., Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Jeremy McNichols, but Mariota does add a rushing threat to the mix with his own legs. This offense looks inconsistent though, and the defense is much bigger concern. The Commanders allow 27.2 points (28th) and 382.5 yards per game (30th), getting gashed both via the ground and through the air with rankings of 29th and 30th in yardage allowed to each method of attack. The pass rush sits 15th in sack percentage, and with just 0.5 takeaways per game, there are few splash plays to make up for the weak unit.
New York Giants
Looking toward the Big Apple, the Giants are a measly 2-11 overall in a nightmare season of their own. The expectations weren’t all that high, but it turns out life without Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo isn’t very fun. The one bright spot has been Jaxson Dart, the rookie quarterback leading his team to some competitive games at the very least while showing signs of a franchise player. The Giants average 21.5 points (23rd) and 340.1 yards per game (15th), preferring to keep the ball on the ground more often than not. Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary are a relatively average halfback duo, but Dart’s rushing ability is notable even if he’s occasionally too aggressive in his approach. Wan’Dale Robinson has posted some impressive games in the lead wideout role and Theo Johnson remains an underrated tight end, so New York does have a couple of receiving weapons at the very least. Still, the Giants struggle to score in the red zone (more on that later) and the defense isn’t nearly good enough to make up for it. The unit allows 28.2 points (30th) and 385.8 yards (31st) on average, and they’re particularly weak against the run while allowing 154.2 yards via the ground per game (31st). That’s not a great stat for a matchup like this one, and much like the Commanders, New York also struggles with rushing the passer (23rd in sack percentage) and creating big plays with 0.5 takeaways per game (30th).
Commanders vs. Giants pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Giants are -2.5 home favorites with -142 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Commanders are listed at +120 to win outright with a game total of 46.5 points. As far as betting splits go, 66% of straight bets favor New York while 65% are on the team to cover. On the total, 62% of the wagers favor the under.
Either side could emerge with a win in this battle between struggling offenses and bottom-tier defenses. Fans can expect sloppy football given that neither of these teams are actually good. One particular status which could sway the outcome is that of Dexter Lawrence, who’s questionable to suit up for the Giants. Ever seen the meme that asks “What the hell is a polar bear doing in Arlington, Texas?” That’s Lawrence on this New York defense — just totally out of place given that he’s one of the best defensive tackles in the league yet is stranded here on a surrounding unit that can’t stop the run whatsoever.
If he doesn’t play, I fully expect the Commanders to pound the rock all day long, control the time-of-possession battle and score just enough to get the job done on the road. Even if Lawrence does suit up, I’d probably feel (barely) comfortable taking them as an outright winner on the Moneyline, but I like this to be a pretty close game with neither side really pulling away. Dart can make plays himself and his weapons are probably around the same caliber overall, though McLaurin is the clear-cut top option in this game. Plus, the Commanders have the better coaching from Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury over New York interim Mike Kafka. It’ll be a gross one, but as long as Washington can run the ball and spam the WR1 with targets, there’s a case for them as a straight winner as the Giants’ tank to the top of the draft continues. I like the upset here.
Best bet: WAS Commanders ML (+120)