The Philadelphia Eagles are on a three-game losing streak, but they don’t appear to be in danger of not winning the NFC East.
The 8-5 Eagles still have a one-and-a-half-game lead over the 6-6-1 Dallas Cowboys in the division. Because of the tie, Dallas would need to match Philadelphia’s win total to move into first place.
Overall, things are far from perfect in Philadelphia, as the offense has struggled recently, averaging only 16.2 points over the last five games. In the first two games of that sample, the Eagles offset their offensive struggles by managing to hold the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions to a combined total of just 16 points in a pair of wins.
While the fact they scored just 26 total points in those games didn’t seem like a significant concern, the lack of scoring has persisted in the last three games.
Try out PFSN’s FREE playoff predictor, where you can simulate every 2025-26 NFL season game and see how it all shakes out!
What Are the Philadelphia Eagles’ Chances of Winning the NFC East and Getting the No. 1 Seed?
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, the Eagles have a 89.6% chance of making the playoffs and an 88.2% chance of winning the division. Philadelphia is unlikely to get the top seed and bye in the NFC. They enter Week 15 with a 1.4% chance.
If the Eagles win against the Las Vegas Raiders this week, the chances of securing a playoff berth (94.6%), NFC East title (93.5%), and NFC No. 1 seed (2.2%) will improve slightly.
If Philadelphia gets upset at home by Las Vegas, things get a little bit more interesting. The chances drop for both the playoff berth (77.2%) and the NFC East title (79.0%), and the Eagles will be out of the race for the NFC No. 1 seed.
Entering Week 15, the Eagles have a 55.8% chance to be the third seed, 16.0% chance to be the second seed, and 15.0% to be the fourth seed. Getting the second seed would guarantee a home game in the Divisional Round if the Eagles were to win the Wild Card game.
Eagles’ Remaining 2025 Schedule
The Eagles have the fifth-easiest remaining schedule, according to PFSN’s Strength of Schedule metric. The Eagles’ magic number to win the NFC East is three, which can be achieved through any combination of Philadelphia wins and Dallas losses.
Philadelphia is favored to win three of the final four games, according to PFSN Analytics.
Week 15: vs. Las Vegas (71.8% chance to win)
Week 16: at Washington (62.1% chance to win)
Week 17: at Buffalo (44.7% chance to win)
Week 18: vs. Washington (65.0% chance to win)
The Cowboys have the seventh-easiest schedule and are favored to win all four of their games. However, their next two matchups are almost a coin flip.
MORE: 2026 3-Round NFL Mock Draft: Jets, Raiders Trade Up for Quarterbacks in Round 1
Additionally, the Week 17 game is a challenging short-week road game, as it will be played on the road against the Commanders on Christmas Day.
Week 15: vs. Minnesota (54.4% chance to win)
Week 16: vs. Los Angeles Chargers (50.5% chance to win)
Week 17: at Washington (58.2% chance to win)
Week 18: at New York Giants (61.1% chance to win)
The best-case scenario for the Eagles this week is a win and a Dallas loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Their chances of winning the NFC East would increase to 98.6% with three games to play. However, if the Raiders win and the Cowboys win, the Eagles’ chances to win the NFC East drop to 65.9%.
If the Eagles lose one of the next two games and the Cowboys win their next three games, it would make the Week 17 game in Buffalo a make-or-break game for Philadelphia’s playoff hopes. As long as the Eagles don’t lose two games, it doesn’t matter what the Cowboys do in the final four weeks.