Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 15’s game between the Denver Broncos and the Green Bay Packers.

Empower Field in December isn’t polite. The air is thin, the turf is hard, and visiting quarterbacks feel every third down in their lungs. Denver has leaned into that edge all season, turning home games into attrition tests instead of track meets. Green Bay arrives rolling offensively, but this is the kind of spot where efficiency gets taxed snap by snap. Nothing is free here. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 15’s game between the Denver Broncos and the Green Bay Packers.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The numbers tilt Green Bay because Love is playing clean, efficient football. Jordan Love is 259-for-386 at 67.1% for 3,028 yards, 22 touchdowns, and four interceptions. He’s at 7.8 yards per attempt, has taken only 18 sacks, and owns 115.7 total EPA on 446 plays, a monster 0.26 EPA per play. Green Bay’s skill group has finally started to match that quarterback efficiency with real finishing. Josh Jacobs has 206 carries, 12 rushing touchdowns, and 31 catches for 251 yards, so defenses never get to relax in the red zone. Christian Watson has turned limited volume into detonations, scoring three touchdowns in his last two games and forcing safeties to widen their landmarks. Dontayvion Wicks popped for six catches, 94 yards, and two touchdowns in Week 13, giving Love a second vertical answer when coverage overplays Watson. Even when the run efficiency is ordinary, that mix of touchdown equity and downfield stress keeps Green Bay from stalling.

Denver’s Bo Nix is 297-for-470 at 63.2% for 2,954 yards, 19 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He’s at 6.3 yards per attempt, has taken 16 sacks, and sits at 43.8 total EPA on 541 plays, 0.08 EPA per play. Even with Denver’s recent improvement, that’s the gap between creating points and avoiding mistakes.Without Dobbins, R.J. Harvey becomes the hinge. Harvey has 91 carries for 354 yards at 3.9 per carry with five rushing touchdowns, plus 37 catches on 42 targets for 247 yards and four receiving touchdowns. He’s produced 10.2 rushing EPA and 0.08 EPA per play, and his 256 receiving YAC tells you Denver wants him in space. Green Bay’s counterweight is role certainty. Josh Jacobs has 206 carries for 817 yards at 4.0 per carry with 12 rushing touchdowns and only one fumble lost. He’s added 31 catches on 38 targets for 251 yards with 286 receiving YAC, and he’s at 14.4 total EPA on 237 plays, 0.06 EPA per play. That profile matters in a low-total game because it ends drives with touchdowns.

Packers vs. Broncos pick, best bet

Recent form still keeps Denver live, and the defensive player notes support it. Nix’s last month shows real stabilization, going from 16-for-28 for 150 with two interceptions and -9.20 EPA in Week 10 to 24-for-37 for 295 with +7.06 EPA in Week 11, then 29-for-45 for 321 with +13.69 EPA in Week 13, then 31-for-38 for 212 with +10.88 EPA in Week 14. Love has been steadier at the top end, with four passing touchdowns in Week 13 and three in Week 14, and +13.29 EPA and +10.42 EPA in those games. Denver’s pass rush flashed with Nik Bonitto recording two sacks in Week 14, and John Franklin-Myers adding a sack. Green Bay has rush teeth too, with Rashan Gary posting five pressures in Week 14 and Micah Parsons wrecking Week 13 with 2.5 sacks and eight pressures. In the back seven, Talanoa Hufanga’s tackle volume popped with 13 tackles in Week 13, and Xavier McKinney’s impact showed with seven tackles and +6.15 EPA in Week 14. This is not a soft environment for either quarterback.

The betting context points to a grinder, and the special-teams edge drags Denver into the number. DraftKings has Green Bay -1.5 with a 42.5 total, basically telling you one-score football. Denver’s kicker has been nails at 20-for-23 on field goals, 87.0%, with 30-for-30 extra points. Green Bay sits at 19-for-25 field goals, 76.0%, with 33-for-36 extra points, 91.7%. Turnovers are close, but the shape differs. Denver has 11 total turnovers against 12 takeaways, for +1, with nine interceptions thrown and seven picked. Green Bay has nine turnovers against 11 takeaways, for +2, with Love’s four interceptions being the cleanest separator. Denver can win this with field goals and late stops. Green Bay can win it by avoiding the one short field that flips the game.

Script-wise, Denver should lean into Harvey as both runner and outlet, because that’s the offense’s best stabilizer now. That also means Nix will be asked to string together longer drives, not steal points quickly. Green Bay should stay balanced early, ride Jacobs near the stripe, and let Love pick his moments against a defense designed to punish impatience. The altitude and the total tell me this stays tight into the fourth. In that shape, I’d rather take the points with the home team and trust the kicking edge to matter.

Broncos +1.5 (-115), Denver 21–20.

Best bet: Broncos +1.5 (-115) vs. Packers

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For a prop lean, RJ Harvey 25+ receiving yards. He has 42 targets and 37 catches already, turning them into 247 receiving yards and four touchdowns, which is real offense, not a gadget layer. Bo Nix has thrown 470 passes this season, and Green Bay can generate pressure without blitzing, which naturally pushes Denver toward quick-game answers and checkdowns. Harvey is the cleanest pressure valve they have. His 256 yards after catch matter here, because he doesn’t need depth or broken coverage to clear a short number. A couple designed outlets or scramble drills get him most of the way there, and the game environment should force that usage. At +120, the volume case is strong enough to play.

Best prop lean: RJ Harvey 25+ receiving yards (+120)

Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!