Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 15’s game between the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints.
Bank of America Stadium gets weird late in the season, when bad blood and bad math start sharing a locker. Carolina is still playing for something real, and the week has carried that quiet urgency. New Orleans is playing spoiler, which is always when divisional games get sharp. The Saints have lived in close losses and long afternoons, yet this rivalry never stays polite. This one feels like a test of which offense can stay on schedule without blinking. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 15’s game between the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Bryce Young is at 363 attempts, 230 completions, 2,337 yards, 18 touchdowns, and nine interceptions, and the recent efficiency pop is the point. He just hit 15-of-20 for 206 yards with three touchdowns and zero picks, a 75.0% day that finally looks like clean process. Over their recent sample, Carolina posted +0.226 EPA per play, and the passing piece spiked to +0.648 EPA per play, which is real lift, not lucky bounces. That kind of passing efficiency forces defenses to stop squatting, and it opens the run game from lighter boxes. Rico Dowdle has been the tone-setter all season with 192 carries for 929 yards at 4.8 per carry, plus 29 catches for 254 yards, which keeps the offense out of obvious passing downs. Chuba Hubbard still matters as the change-up with 111 carries for 433 yards and 23 catches for 194, plus three receiving touchdowns. Tetairoa McMillan is the volume valve with 98 targets and a 1.92 yards-per-route rate, and that target gravity is why Carolina can keep chaining first downs. Jalen Coker is flashing chunk plays with four catches for 74 yards and a touchdown recently, and he gives them a real field-stretcher when safeties get nosy. Even Xavier Legette has held a steady role with 98 targets on the season, so Young isn’t playing hero ball to one guy.
Tyler Shough’s recent stretch is the Saints finally finding a pulse through the air, and it’s coming from rhythm, not miracles. Over his last two games he’s at 58 attempts, 39 completions, 383 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, with a 67.2% completion rate that shows the ball is coming out on time. The efficiency is still uneven, but the shape is better, because he’s living in the short and intermediate windows instead of praying for late-down chaos. New Orleans’ passing EPA per play has still been negative at -0.099 in that sample, yet Shough’s comfort has clearly risen as the volume has grown. He’s leaning into his chain-movers, and it shows in the target distribution: Devaughn Vele has been a legitimate security blanket with 13 targets turning into eleven catches for 133 yards and a touchdown in that same two-game run. Chris Olave stays the centerpiece with 120 targets on the season and a 1.72 yards-per-route rate, and Shough’s surge looks real when that first-read timing keeps Olave in stride. Juwan Johnson has also been part of the solution with 13 targets and nine catches for 77 yards recently, giving Shough a middle-of-the-field outlet when defenses rotate late. If New Orleans wants this to hold, they have to keep feeding Shough these defined throws and let the efficiency build drive-by-drive, because that’s where the surge actually lives.
Panthers vs. Saints pick, best bet
Here’s the counter: New Orleans can still make this ugly, because they do have a pass rush and Carolina’s defense has shown a pass-leak tendency in the recent splits. The Saints have 28 sacks on the season, and Carolina has lived with lighter pressure totals at 18 sacks. If Shough avoids the two-ball mistakes and just peppers quick throws, the Saints can hang around on field position and third-and-medium. If Carolina settles for field goals after that early passing surge, laying points becomes uncomfortable. That script exists, and divisional games love dragging you into it.
I’m still on Panthers -2.5 (-120), with the total sitting 40.5. The Saints ruled out Alvin Kamara for this one, and that matters because it removes their most reliable touch-and-escape answer. Carolina’s side is clean on the final report, with no game-day designations, and that kind of “all hands” spot is exactly when I want to trust the favorite’s plan. The efficiency gap is the spine of the bet: Carolina’s recent +0.226 EPA per play versus New Orleans’ -0.087, plus that massive +0.648 versus -0.099 passing split, is not small noise. If the Saints are going to win snaps, they need clean quarterbacking, and the recent two-interception stretch says that’s not a given.
Game script wise, Carolina should live in spread looks, keep the reads clean for Young, and use Dowdle’s 4.8-per-carry profile to stay ahead of third down. That also keeps McMillan’s 98-target role alive on slants, digs, and glance routes where timing beats rush. New Orleans should answer with quick-game and screens to Olave and Vele, because they can’t afford long-developing concepts without Kamara’s safety blanket. Devin Neal can still carry volume, but the Saints have not earned rushing efficiency lately, and Carolina’s recent rush defense profile has been stout. If the Panthers get an early lead, they can squeeze this with run calls, play-action shots, and a defense that can hunt mistakes when the Saints chase.
Panthers -2.5, Carolina 23–17.
Best bet: Panthers -2.5 (-120) at Saints
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For a prop lean, Rico Dowdle over 57.5 rushing yards (-115) is the cleanest way to play this game. He has 192 carries for 929 yards at 4.8 per carry, and Carolina’s recent efficiency spike has come from staying ahead of the sticks, not chasing throws. When the Panthers aren’t in catch-up mode, Dowdle consistently lives in the high-teens carry range, and he doesn’t need breakaway runs to clear this number. New Orleans can pressure quarterbacks, but they’ve been softer on early downs, which keeps the run game viable deep into the second half. Carolina owns 1,631 team rushing yards, a 404-yard edge on New Orleans, and Dowdle alone accounts for over 57% of that production. He’s also added 29 catches for 254 yards, which keeps him on the field regardless of situation and protects his snap share. This sets up as another volume-and-efficiency clear rather than a fragile script bet.
Best prop lean: Rico Dowdle o57.5 total rushing yards (-115)
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