It’s going to be cold in Pittsburgh Monday night when the Miami Dolphins take their Florida vibes to Steeltown and face the Pittsburgh Steelers, who enter as a field-goal favorite.
My Dolphins vs. Steelers predictions explain Tua Tagovailoa’s track record of crumbling in the frost, and MNF might be another great spot to fade the warm-weather quarterback.
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Find out why in my NFL picks for Monday, December 15.
Dolphins vs Steelers prediction
Dolphins vs Steelers Best bet: Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 interceptions (-110)
Betting the Over on Tua Tagovailoa’s interception prop makes a lot of sense this week, and the cold-weather angle isn’t just noise — it’s one of the most reliable splits in football. The narrative surrounding Tua in freezing conditions may feel overstated, but the numbers back it up. He’s 1-8 SU in games with kickoff temperatures at 46°F or colder, and the Miami Dolphins offense has struggled badly in those spots, averaging only 16.4 points.
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It’s going to be 20 degrees in Pittsburgh on Monday night.
In sub-40 games alone, Tua has thrown eight touchdowns against nine interceptions, with a noticeable dip in accuracy and efficiency. His completion rate drops from 68% in comfortable weather to roughly 58% in the cold, and his yards per attempt fall from 8.2 to 6.1.
Miami has leaned heavily on the run lately, but that may not hold Monday night, as the last three quarterbacks this team has faced have allowed a lot of positive game script. De’Von Achane has been limited in practice, and if Miami’s run game stalls early, Tua will have to shoulder more of the offense. That’s where mistakes can pile up. When he’s forced to throw deep, things get even shakier: he ranks 28th in deep-ball completion rate, and his 18 interceptable passes thrown this season are the second-most in the league.
Yes, Tua finally snapped his cold-weather slump with a turnover-free win vs. the Jets earlier this month, but even in that game, he threw for only 86 yards and avoided risk at all costs. If Miami is pushed into a higher pass rate this time, the opportunities for a turnover are going to be there. This is a strong spot to play the Over.
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Dolphins vs Steelers MNF same-game parlay
We’re headed for another Miami meltdown late in the season with the mercury dropping. It’s a battle of old vs. cold as Aaron Rodgers doesn’t need to do too much and let the Dolphins hand them the game. The Dolphins have been very lucky with a game script that has helped them protect their QB, but Monday night might look different. Tua Tagovailoa is a bad deep-ball QB and even worse in the cold. It’s not a public narrative; it’s the truth.
Dolphins vs Steelers SGP +370
Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 interceptions
Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 passing TDs
Our big-ticket SGP: Steeltown showdown
If the Dolphins are forced to pass, Jaylen Waddle will be the busiest of all pass catchers, especially if De’Von Achane is not 100 percent. Pat Freiermuth will have a bigger role this week with Darnell Washington still in concussion protocol as of Friday.
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Dolphins vs Steelers SGP
Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 interceptions
Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 passing TDs
Jaylen Waddle Over 4.5 receptions
Covers MNF BTE
Dolphins vs Steelers odds
Spread: Dolphins +3 | Steelers -3
Moneyline: Dolphins +145 | Steelers -170
Over/Under: Over 41.5 | Under 41.5
Dolphins vs Steelers betting trend to know
Tua Tagovailoa is 1-8 SU in his career in games with kickoff temperatures at 46 degrees or below. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Steelers.
How to watch Dolphins vs Steelers
Location
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Date
Monday, December 15, 2025
Kickoff
8:15 p.m. ET
TV
ESPN
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