On Monday, December 15, the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Miami Dolphins in the Week 15 Monday Night Football game. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 15 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.

MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!

 

How To Watch Dolphins vs Steelers

When: Monday, December 15 at 8:15 pm ET

Where: Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Channel: ABC / ESPN

Dolphins vs Steelers Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, December 14 Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Steelers -166, Dolphins +140

Spread: Steelers -3 (-110), Dolphins +3 (-110)

Total: Over 42.5 (-105), Under 42.5 (-115)

Dolphins vs Steelers Analysis

The narratives and trends heading into this game are going to be out of control. On one hand, Mike Tomlin is 22-3 straight-up on Monday Night Football in his head coaching career. He also hasn’t lost a Monday Night Football game at home. On the other, Miami is 0-6 with Tua Tagovailoa under center in games with temperatures below 40 degrees. Also, in those games, Tagovailoa has thrown for one touchdown and a miserable 12 interceptions. On top of that, Pittsburgh is coming off a big win over Baltimore, so people are hot for the Steelers here. Our VSiN betting splits prove that. However, this definitely feels like the type of game in which you’ll want to zig while others zag, which is part of the reason I’m taking the points.

The thing that’s hard to ignore here is the Pittsburgh rushing defense against the Miami rushing offense. The Steelers were 27th in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed (0.008) heading into Week 15. Well, the Dolphins were third in the NFL in Rush EPA per play (0.025). Miami’s offensive line might not grade out all that well, but that hasn’t stopped De’Von Achane from piling up 1,126 yards and seven scores on the ground this season. And there’s really no reason Achane can’t get himself going here, making life easier on Tagovailoa. The southpaw hasn’t done much of anything over the course of a Dolphins four-game winning streak, but he also hasn’t destroyed his team with turnovers. As long as he keeps that up, Miami will have success by moving the chains on the ground and controlling the time-of-possession battle.

The Dolphins defense could also turn some heads in this one. Miami got off to a miserable start to the season, leading to a lot of talk about Mike McDaniel’s job security. However, it has been clear for some time that this Dolphins team hasn’t quit. In fact, they’re 7-4 against the spread over the last 11 games, and their defense has been rock-solid after two brutal showings to start the year. Since Week 3, Miami has an EPA per play allowed of just 0.005. That’s good for 16th in the NFL. Of course, that’s nothing to write home about. However, a league-average unit is pretty solid when you also have the league’s third-best running game. The Dolphins have also been excellent against the run, which sets them up very nicely for this game.

Aaron Rodgers is coming off a bit of a vintage performance against the Ravens last week, but the Steelers definitely don’t want to have him dropping back to throw in tough long-yardage situations throughout this one. However, there’s a real chance Miami does a decent job of stifling the Pittsburgh running game, putting everything on Rodgers’ shoulders. Sure, the Dolphins’ secondary isn’t great, but shredding opponents through the air just hasn’t been much of an option for the Steelers this year. Also, Miami has some capable pass-rushers that can make a 42-year-old Rodgers uncomfortable.

Dolphins vs Steelers Player Props

Lean: De’Von Achane Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-131)

I like Achane to have a good game against this soft Steelers rushing defense, but I like him to finish with at least 17 rushing attempts even more. The Dolphins star comes into this game after having rushed only seven times against the Jets last week, but that’s because that game was a complete blowout. That allowed Miami to be cautious with Achane, who left that game with an injury. The team sat him the rest of the contest. However, Achane is healthy coming into this week, and he had rushed at least 21 times in three straight games before facing New York. The Dolphins should get back to riding him — especially with this being a cold-weather game.

Dolphins vs Steelers Pick

Not only do I like the Dolphins to cover the number but there’s really no reason Miami can’t win this game. While all of the talk will be about Pittsburgh’s win last week, Tomlin’s MNF record, and Rodgers facing a team with a losing record at home, there’s a lot that suggests the Dolphins are a better team than the Steelers right now. Also, a lot of Miami’s strengths will be going up against Pittsburgh weaknesses.

Bet: Dolphins +3.5 (-120) & Dolphins ML (+154 – 0.5 units)