Welcome to the Opening Line, where we look at ways to have a little fun while identifying intriguing early wagers on the upcoming week’s NFL action. The number of consequential games is narrowing quickly as teams get eliminated, but hopefully the Multivariate Algorithm Deducing Every Ultimate Payday (MADE UP) can keep from joining the Chiefs on the scrap heap after a fine 3-1 week.

Next week, pickings might be a bit slimmer, but this week we’ve got great matchups all over the board. Let’s get to it!

All odds referenced as of Monday morning.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Early bet: over 44.5 points (-110)

I’ve got that Christmas morning feeling looking at this matchup, as we get to watch the two best teams in the league playing with something real on the line, and the sportsbooks are expecting an exceptionally tight contest, with the moneyline for both teams at nearly identical odds. I don’t need the Ghost of Christmas Past to go look at what I wrote about their first matchup, and I still love both these teams more than Roberto C. Fishman Pratt loves showers.

In the teams’ first meeting last month, I just grabbed the Seahawks as 2.5-point underdogs, but this time I am leaning into the joy of the season and taking the over just to enjoy the game as much as possible, despite heavy early action on the under moving the line down two points on Sunday night. Let’s chalk it up to a bunch of unredeemables offering opinions on things they know nothing about. Place this bet, then sit back and enjoy the positive ripples coming from Sean McVay’s (who is the “perfect combination of Mussolini and Seacrest”) and Micro Mike Macdonald’s sides. While the vibes-based logic might not be as persuasive as Clint Briggs, at least it doesn’t kinda make you want to “push an old lady down a flight of stairs,” to quote a Will Ferrell character.

And to anyone who doesn’t know what holiday movie I watched right before writing, I’d just say good afternoon!

Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans

Early bet: Texans -14.5 (-115)

I owe an apology to Jets, Browns and Titans fans. At various points this season, I have implied your team is the league’s laughingstock, but you were never really deserving of the title, as even the characters in “The Hangover” created less trouble in Las Vegas than the Raiders have this season.

Perhaps that’s a bad comparison, as waking up next to a tiger is at least interesting, and unlike those other teams, Vegas has been boringly bad. It’s like they took John Cena’s retirement way too hard and vowed to never demonstrate ruthless aggression again. The result is lines like this, where they are over two-touchdown dogs, but the total is set at only 37.5 points.

That means the oddsmakers expect the Raiders to get roughly 12 points, which would actually be progress from their recent form, as they’ve averaged a pathetic 10.7 points per game over their last six. It’s extra confusing because the Raiders have added top talents in Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers in the last two drafts, but I guess that was a little like trying to fix the bus in “Speed” by just adding racing stripes.

Meanwhile, the Texans demonstrated that they are more than capable of generating enough offense to cover after dropping 40 on the Cardinals on Sunday and look ready to add to the Raiders’ many woes. Shockingly, on average, Vegas hasn’t even come within seven points of covering the spread in its games this year, the worst mark in the league by far. So while the line may look high, don’t expect to have to sweat it out like Frosty in the greenhouse this Sunday afternoon.

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens

Early bet: Patriots +2.5 (-105)

It might be strange, but I actually feel more bullish about the Patriots after Sunday’s loss to the Bills. As mentioned last week, their schedule has been hilariously easy, so this was the first time in two months (since they visited Buffalo in Week 5) that we’ve seen them up against a real measuring stick, and they stood tall, jumping out to a huge lead and demonstrating they won’t be an easy out come January.

The Ravens did enjoy a rebound in Cincinnati, but it’s a bit surprising that they would be considered even with the Pats on a neutral field, as this line implies. Baltimore has been maddeningly inconsistent this year and has seemed just as likely to beat itself as its opponents. New England seems to have at least an equal ceiling and a much higher floor, meaning I’d expect them to win this game outright more often than not. The points are the icing on the cake and make the Pats an easy pick.

And yes, this was an attempt at more straight-laced sports writing. Somehow, it just doesn’t fit, like when Buddy the Elf has to wear professional clothes to his dad’s office. There, that feels better.

Bonus: Pepper Brooks Special

Some lines open at such a strange number that it actually makes me want to steer clear while figuring out the bookmaker’s angle. Like iconic commentator Pepper Brooks once said in “Dodgeball” after the Average Joes forfeit the championship game: “Bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off.”

Cautious pick: San Francisco 49ers -5.5 (-110) over Indianapolis Colts

While the Colts may be in the middle of an all-time elite run of quarterback nicknames in moving from Indiana Jones to Old Man Rivers, it seems highly suspicious that this number actually dropped after watching the latter play. Don’t get me wrong, the idea of trying to do something for the first time in five years (like write a decent column) in front of a worldwide audience is completely terrifying, and judging against that standard, Philip Rivers acquitted himself perfectly well against the Seahawks on Sunday.

But we shouldn’t confuse clearing a low bar with performing at the level required to take down a legit contender, especially when he only threw for 120 yards  and was moving at a tempo matching the song that made his new moniker famous. It’s like my writing: The rest of the references herein may be less dated than the one about a show tune from 1927, but it doesn’t make them timely.

The 49ers are the ones arriving right on time, covering in each of their last four games and looking like a team ready to make a real postseason run. They’ve also excelled away from home, going 6-2 against the spread on the road this year (5-0 as favorites). Their final two games are at home, so expect that to end at 7-2 as they roll like the mighty Mississippi to a comfortable win.