Patriots vs. Ravens and Other Week 16 Over/Under Games to Target in Fantasy Football

Week 16 of the NFL season is upon us, which means the fantasy football playoffs are here. As always, the challenge of setting lineups and finding an edge in fantasy football only becomes greater than the week before.  

While talent and matchups always matter, one of the most reliable indicators of fantasy potential comes from the betting market. High over/unders signal expected scoring, and more points on the board generally translate to more opportunities for fantasy production. Every touchdown and red-zone trip boosts the chances for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends and even kickers to deliver starter-worthy numbers. 

This week’s slate offers several matchups with enticing totals. A handful of contests stand out as potential fantasy goldmines, making them worth targeting when finalizing lineups. Below are the games, along with some included fantasy football analysis and advice. 

*Over/under totals obtained from FanDuel Sportsbook* 

Bengals @ Dolphins (O/U: 50.5)

This Week 16 matchup sets up as one of the most fantasy-friendly environments of the week, with explosive playmakers on both sidelines and each team’s defense being suspect. Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa are strong starts in a game that should feature heavy passing volume from start to finish. De’Von Achane is an automatic must-start thanks to his game-breaking speed, while Chase Brown remains a solid RB2 with consistent pass-game usage. At receiver, Ja’Marr Chase is locked in as a must-start, and Tee Higgins (if active) carries strong WR2 value. Jaylen Waddle is also a clear start with the Bengals, allowing the most fantasy points per game to running backs. Darren Waller rounds out the fantasy appeal as a startable tight end as the Bengals allow the most fantasy points per game to the position, while Mike Gesicki remains a bench option. Malik Washington and Andrei Iosivas can also stay on the bench.

Quarterbacks:

Joe Burrow – Start 

Tua Tagovailoa – Start

Running Backs:

De’Von Achane – Must Start 

Chase Brown – Start 

Wide Receivers:

Ja’Marr Chase – Must Start 

Tee Higgins (Q) – Start 

Jaylen Waddle – Start 

Malik Washington – Bench 

Andrei Iosivas – Bench

Tight Ends:

Darren Waller – Start 

Mike Gesicki – Bench

Noah Fant – Bench

Dec 7, 2025; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Miami Dolphins running back De’Von Achane (28) celebrates with tight end Darren Waller (83) and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) after scoring a touchdown against the New York Jets during the first half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-Imagn Images | Ed Mulholland-Imagn Images

Steelers @ Lions (O/U: 50.5)

This Week 16 matchup carries legitimate shootout potential, making it a prime spot to mine fantasy points. Jared Goff is a strong start at home, while Aaron Rodgers remains a viable starter in a contest where Pittsburgh may need to keep pace. Jahmyr Gibbs is a locked-in must-start with elite upside, and David Montgomery continues to offer reliable RB2 value with touchdown equity. Jaylen Warren is a solid start thanks to his all-around usage, while Kenneth Gainwell fits better as a flex option. In the passing game, Amon-Ra St. Brown is an automatic start, Jameson Williams provides upside as a WR2 with his recent uptick in usage, and DK Metcalf remains a strong play. Tight ends can be avoided here, with both Pat Freiermuth and Jonnu Smith lacking consistent roles. 

Quarterbacks:

Jared Goff – Start 

Aaron Rodgers – Start 

Running Backs:

Jahmyr Gibbs – Must Start 

David Montgomery – Start

Jaylen Warren – Start 

Kenneth Gainwell – Flex  

Wide Receivers:

Amon-Ra St. Brown – Must Start 

Jameson Williams – Start 

DK Metcalf – Start 

Calvin Austin III – Bench 

Isaac TeSlaa – Bench 

Tight Ends:

Pat Freiermuth – Bench 

Jonnu Smith – Bench 

Dec 7, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren (30) is congratulated by running back Kenneth Gainwell (14) after scoring a touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens during the second half at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images | Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

Chargers @ Cowboys (O/U: 49.5)

This Week 16 matchup features plenty of playmakers on offense, making it a strong fantasy game to target. Justin Herbert is a clear start despite recent struggles with injury in a game that should lean pass-heavy with the Cowboys allowing the most fantasy points per game to QB. Dak Prescott also remains a strong QB1 option at home despite a challenging matchup. Javonte Williams and Omarion Hampton both project as reliable starts based on expected volume, with Kimani Vidal offering flex appeal if the Chargers rotate backs. At receiver, Ceedee Lamb is an automatic must-start, while George Pickens, Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen all carry strong WR2 upside in a matchup that favors perimeter playmakers. Quentin Johnston (if active) fits as a flex option, while Ryan Flournoy can stay on the bench. At tight end, Oronde Gadsden II and Jake Ferguson are both strong starts, with red-zone usage making them valuable pieces in what should be a high-scoring contest. 

Quarterbacks:

Justin Herbert – Start 

Dak Cowboys – Start 

Running Backs:

Javonte Williams – Start 

Omarion Hampton – Start 

Kimani Vidal – Flex 

Wide Receivers:

Ceedee Lamb – Must Start 

George Pickens – Start 

Ladd McConkey – Start 

Keenan Allen – Start 

Quentin Johnston (Q) – Flex 

Ryan Flournoy – Bench 

Tight Ends:

Oronde Gadsden II – Start 

Jake Ferguson – Start 

Dec 14, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Los Angeles Chargers running back Omarion Hampton (8) rushes against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Patriots @ Ravens (O/U: 47.5)

This matchup offers plenty of fantasy value, particularly around the quarterbacks and primary skill players. Drake Maye continues to play at a must-start level with his rushing floor, while Lamar Jackson is still a solid start despite his stock dropping in recent weeks. Derrick Henry and TreVeyon Henderson are both locked into lineups with reliable workloads, while Rhamondre Stevenson fits in as a flex with run and pass game usage. At receiver, Zay Flowers and Stefon Diggs are strong starts, with Kayshon Boutte providing flex appeal in deeper formats. The rest of the Patriots’ receiving corps can be left on the bench, including Baltimore’s Rashod Bateman if he’s active. At tight end, Mark Andrews remains a top option, and Hunter Henry stays startable thanks to steady involvement, while Isaiah Likely can be avoided. 

Quarterbacks:

Drake Maye – Must Start 

Lamar Jackson – Start 

Running Backs:

Derrick Henry – Start 

TreVeyon Henderson – Start 

Rhamondre Stevenson – Flex 

Wide Receivers:

Zay Flowers – Start

Stefon Diggs – Start 

Kayshon Boutte – Flex

Mack Hollins – Bench

DeMario Douglas – Bench 

Rashod Bateman (Q) – Bench 

Tight Ends:

Mark Andrews – Start 

Hunter Henry – Start 

Isaiah Likely – Bench 

Dec 14, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots running back Treveyon Henderson (32) runs for a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Falcons @ Cardinals (O/U: 47.5)

This Week 16 matchup offers an under-the-radar fantasy environment with impact players at the top of each offense. Jacoby Brissett remains a reliable start thanks to his passing volume and floor, while Kirk Cousins is a better fit as a deeper-league option in a favorable matchup. Bijan Robinson is an automatic must-start with elite usage, and Bam Knight (ankle) or Michael Carter carries flex appeal depending on availability. At receiver, Drake London is a must-start if active, and Marvin Harrison Jr. remains a strong start despite the injury tag. Michael Wilson continues to benefit from expanded opportunities and is firmly in play, while Darnell Mooney can stay on the bench. At tight end, Trey McBride is a locked-in must-start, and Kyle Pitts Sr. offers TE1 upside after his huge game on Thursday night last week. 

Quarterbacks:

Jacoby Brissett – Start 

Kirk Cousins – Deeper League Play 

Running Backs:

Bijan Robinson – Must Start 

Bam Knight (Q)/Michael Carter – Flex 

Wide Receivers:

Drake London (Q) – Must Start 

Marvin Harrison Jr. (Q) – Start 

Michael Wilson – Start 

Darnell Mooney – Bench

Tight Ends:

Trey McBride – Must Start 

Kyle Pitts Sr. – Start 

Dec 11, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. (8) celebrates with running back Bijan Robinson (7) after scoring a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

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