The Houston Texans have high expectations heading into the 2025 season following back-to-back AFC South division titles and a pair of postseason wins behind C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans. With new offensive coordinator Nick Caley in place, big things are expected from the passing game to pair with a potential top-three defense.
In addition to facing their AFC South foes twice, the Texans will play the NFC West and AFC West next season, which includes home games against the Las Vegas Raiders and Arizona Cardinals, as well as away games against the two Los Angeles franchises and the Kansas City Chiefs.
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With the Texans finishing first in the AFC South, they’ll also face the same-place finisher in the AFC North (Baltimore Ravens) and AFC East (Buffalo Bills). With that additional 17th game, they’ll face the NFC South same-place finisher (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) at NRG Stadium.
ESPN has released its 2025 projections, including win probability for all 17 games for each team. Where do they project the Texans to finish in 2025 and how many of their 17 games do they have a favorable win probability in? Here’s a look:
Texans win probabilities for every 2025 game
Week 2: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51%)
Week 5: at Baltimore Ravens (20%)
Week 7: at Seattle Seahawks (55%)
Week 8: vs, San Francisco 49ers (67%)
Week 10: at Jacksonville Jaguars (71%)
Week 11: vs. Tennessee Titans (68%)
Week 12: at Buffalo Bills (41%)
Week 14: at Kansas City Chiefs (42%)
Week 15: vs. Arizona Cardinals (62%)
Week 16: vs. Las Vegas Raiders (73%)
Week 18: vs. Indianapolis Colts (64%)
This article originally appeared on Texans Wire: Texans’ win probability for every game on 2025 schedule