ANALYSIS VIDEO: Brutal injuries haunt Packers in loss to Broncos
Ryan Wood joins Dominique Yates to recap the Packers’ 34-26 loss to the Broncos where the team suffered potentially devastating injuries.
As devastating as the injury-riddled loss to the Denver Broncos may have been for Green Bay Packers fans, their chances to make the playoffs remained north of 90%, and only one team can keep Green Bay out of the postseason at this point.
It’s the Detroit Lions.
Green Bay (9-4-1) is 1½ games ahead of Detroit for the seventh and final playoff spot. That means the Lions must gain two games on the Packers to close the season. The magic number for the Packers is two – any combination of Green Bay wins and Detroit losses equaling two will guarantee the Packers a playoff berth.
No other team can keep the Packers out. That includes the Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1), who can finish tied with the Packers but can’t catch Green Bay in the first tiebreaker, which is record in NFC conference games.
Though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers both have 7-7 records, they also face each other twice in the final three weeks. That means one of them will incur a loss, which would put that team too far behind the Packers. Though the other team could still win all three of its final games and finish with a better record than Green Bay, that team would be entitled to the NFC South crown and wouldn’t be competing with the Packers for a wild-card spot.
There’s also the possibility that Green Bay still wins the NFC North and finishes as high as the No. 2 seed. Here’s what to know:
What are the Packers’ odds of making the playoffs?
The New York Times playoff simulator gives the Packers a 91% chance of reaching the playoffs, including a 42% chance of winning the division. Their chance of winning the No. 1 seed and the first-round bye that come with it has fallen to 1%.
What happens to the Packers’ odds if they lose to the Bears?
If Green Bay loses to Chicago on Dec. 20, the New York Times believes their playoff chances fall to 83%. If Detroit also defeats Pittsburgh, the Packers’ chances are still 77%.
What are the scenarios where the Packers miss the playoffs?
Green Bay would need to lose its final three games while Detroit wins twice, or Green Bay would need to lose twice and the Lions win out. Even then, the Packers aren’t completely dead if they finish 1-2 and the Lions sweep. Chicago could also lose its final two games to finish behind Green Bay, or the San Francisco 49ers could finish 0-3 to finish behind Green Bay.
The Bears and Lions face off one more time, in the final game of the season.
Could the Packers clinch a playoff spot this week?
Yes, a win over the Bears and a loss by the Lions against Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers would do the trick and clinch a playoff berth for Green Bay.
In Rodgers’ final game with the Packers, his team lost to the Lions with a playoff berth on the line. Could the Steelers quarterback do his old team a major solid Sunday?
Could the Packers finish 0-3 and still make the playoffs?
The doom and gloom has convinced you that Green Bay isn’t winning again, eh?
But yes, it’s possible the Packers have already done enough to get in, but the Lions need to lose twice more in their final three games. It’s as simple as that.
If the Lions win twice more and the Packers don’t get any more wins, Green Bay will be out.
Even a Lions tie would help. The Packers are already guaranteed a better record in NFC games, so they’d have the tiebreaker if it somehow Detroit had a tie, a win and a loss in its final three games.
What are the remaining schedules for the key teams?
Philadelphia remains interesting because it’s a half-game behind the Packers, and if the Packers rise to the top of the NFC North, they’ll be battling with Philly for seeding.
San Francisco is worth monitoring; the 49ers have won five of six games but all wins have come against teams .500 or below, with a loss to No. 1 Los Angeles (42-26) thrown in. San Francisco has early season close wins over the Seattle Seahawks and the Rams but hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record since Oct. 2. Now, the 49ers have the second-toughest remaining schedule (by opponent win percentage) in the NFL.
Chicago must play both the 49ers and Lions in addition to the Packers.
The Packers could also theoretically find themselves jockeying for playoff position with Seattle, which also has a tough schedule (Rams, Panthers, 49ers).
Green Bay (9-4-1): Dec. 20 at Chicago (10-4), Dec. 27 vs. Baltimore (7-7), Week 18 at Minnesota (6-8)Detroit (8-6): Dec. 21 vs. Pittsburgh (8-6), Dec. 25 at Minnesota (6-8), Week 18 at Chicago (10-4)Chicago (10-4): Dec. 20 vs. Green Bay (9-4-1), Dec. 28 at San Francisco (10-4), Week 18 vs. Detroit (8-6)San Francisco (10-4): Dec. 22 at Indianapolis (8-6), Dec. 28 vs. Chicago (10-4), Week 18 vs. Seattle (11-3)Philadelphia (9-5): Dec. 20 at Washington (4-10), Dec. 28 at Buffalo (10-4), Week 18 vs. Washington (4-10)If the Packers beat the Bears, where will they be in the playoff seeding?
A win over Chicago would move the Packers to the top of the NFC North and place them as the No. 2 seed. The Los Rams (11-3) hold the one seed. Even with a Rams loss at Seattle, coupled with the Packers beating the Bears, the Packers wouldn’t move into the top spot. Los Angeles would still have a half-game cushion over Green Bay, but not only that, Seattle would move to 12-3 and take control of the NFC West, comfortably 1½ games ahead of the Packers with two to play.
Who would the Packers face in the playoffs if the season ended today?
Green Bay would travel to Soldier Field and face the Bears. Yep. You thought two games in three weeks vs. the same opponent was an intense schedule? What about three games in six weeks?
If the Packers beat the Bears, they’re going to flip spots, and it would be Chicago lined up to travel to Lambeau Field.
If you haven’t previously considered the possibility of another Packers-Bears playoff matchup, you may want to dust off your old B.J. Raji jersey and start thinking about it.