KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – DECEMBER 14: Odafe Oweh #98 of the Los Angeles Chargers sacks Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs during the third quarter at Arrowhead Stadium on December 14, 2025 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
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The Kansas City Chiefs’ attempt to make a fourth consecutive Super Bowl ended with a thud on Sunday.
After 10 straight seasons in the playoffs, the Chiefs were eliminated from contention thanks to a 16-13 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.
And while that’s bad news for Kansas City, it serves as good news for the rest of the AFC. With one fewer team vying for a wildcard spot, those contenders are nearly locked into NFL Playoff spots with a few weeks left to play.
Relative Playoff Locks
(per The Athletic’s playoff predictor)
AFC: Broncos (100%), Patriots (over 99%), Bills (over 99%), Jaguars (99%), Texans (98%), Chargers (96%)
NFC: Rams (100%), Seahawks (over 99%), 49ers (99%), Eagles (96%), Packers (90%)
Following wins on Sunday, both the Broncos and Rams have clinched playoff appearances. And another nine teams have playoff odds currently at 90% or higher, according to The Athletic’s projections. That effectively means just three playoff spots are up for grabs: The AFC North winner, NFC South winner and likely whoever finishes second in the NFC North.
What’s left for all of these teams to make (or miss) the playoffs? A quick look below going into Week 16.
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS – DECEMBER 14: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills reaches for the end zone for a touchdown against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on December 14, 2025 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The play was overturned. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
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New England Patriots (11-3)
The Patriots have a simple road to the playoffs: Win any of the next three games and they’re in. Or a loss by the Texans or Colts accomplishes the same thing. To clinch the AFC East, New England needs to either maintain its current (one-game) lead over the Bills, or win one of several tiebreakers like divisional or conference record.
Buffalo Bills (10-4)
Beating the Patriots kept the Bills’ AFC East chances alive, and put Buffalo in prime position to clinch a playoff spot within the next two weeks. Topping the Browns could get them halfway to clinching, with the other half accomplished by the Colts or Texans losing. To win the AFC East, Buffalo needs a better record than New England over the final three games, and have the Pats lose to the Jets or Dolphins.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
Pittsburgh is well-positioned to win the AFC North, with a one-game lead over Baltimore, and another game to play between the teams in week 18. If the Steelers close the season by beating the Browns and Ravens, they’ll be in the playoffs.
Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
The Ravens have very little wiggle room left to make the postseason. Winning out would be the most direct way in. But Baltimore can also win the AFC North if they lose their next two or go 1-1, and the Steelers do as well, as long as the Ravens follow that up by beating Pittsburgh.
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
The surprising Jags just need a win over the Broncos, plus a loss by the Texans or Colts, to secure a playoff berth this weekend. To win the AFC South, Jacksonville needs to maintain their lead over Houston. If the Jaguars lose any of their remaining games and Houston goes 3-0, the Texans win the division via tiebreaker.
Houston Texans (9-5)
Houston is one of the hottest teams in the NFL, at 9-2 in their last 11 games, and they’re in the playoffs with a win over the Chargers or Colts to end the season. The Texans don’t currently control their own destiny in the AFC South, however. They need a Jacksonville loss, even if Houston wins out.
Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
The Colts winning out – against the 49ers, Jaguars and Texans – is a tall order. But if Indianapolis can do it, they’d make the playoffs with some help. Going 3-0 would allow Indianapolis to take advantage of a collapse by any one of the Chargers, Jaguars, Texans or Bills (including dealing losses to Houston and Jacksonville in the process).
Denver Broncos (12-2)
Denver is in already, but still needs to lock up the AFC West. That can happen on Sunday with a win over the Jaguars, plus a Chargers loss. The Broncos can also clinch the AFC’s top seed by beating the Jags while the Chargers, Bills and Patriots all lose.
Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
If the Chargers beat the Cowboys this weekend, and the Texans or Colts lose, then L.A. is in the playoffs. The Bolts also have the chance to clinch outright the following weekend, against Houston. To win the AFC West, the Chargers have to win out, including a season-ending victory against the Broncos, and hope Denver also loses to the Jaguars or Patrick Mahomes-less Chiefs.
GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – DECEMBER 07: Olamide Zaccheaus #14 of the Chicago Bears catches a touchdown pass against Keisean Nixon #25 of the Green Bay Packers during the third quarter at Lambeau Field on December 07, 2025 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
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Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)
The Eagles win the NFC East this weekend with a win over the Commanders, or a loss by the Cowboys.
Chicago Bears (10-4)
Chicago is in the playoffs with a win over Green Bay this weekend, plus a Lions loss to the Steelers. Even just beating the Packers gives the Bears an 84% chance to win the NFC North, per The Athletic’s model. Wins over both the Pack and Lions secures the division title.
Green Bay Packers (9-4-1)
Similar to the Bears, the Packers are in with a win on Saturday, plus a Lions loss. Green Bay would win the NFC North by winning out, or just beating Chicago and Minnesota, as long as the Bears also lose another game.
Detroit Lions (8-6)
A close loss to the Rams puts the Lions up against the wall. They’re eliminated with one more loss. And winning out still doesn’t guarantee a spot, either. Detroit would also need significant stumbles from Chicago or Green Bay the rest of the way.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
The Bucs can stop their freefall with a win over the Panthers this weekend. After that, winning either the Dolphins game or the second matchup against Carolina will wrap up the division.
Carolina Panthers (7-7)
On the other side of that coin is Carolina. Even if the Panthers beat the Bucs and Seahawks these next two weeks, they’re still out if they lose to Tampa in week 18 and the Buccaneers beat the Dolphins the week before. The Panthers win the NFC South if they win both Bucs games, though.
Los Angeles Rams (11-3)
The Rams have clinched a playoff spot, and The Athletic’s model gives L.A. a 93% chance to win the NFC West should they beat the Seahawks this Thursday. If they lose at Seattle, the Rams will need another Seahawks loss, plus wins over Atlanta and Arizona, to win the division.
Seattle Seahawks (11-3)
Seattle makes the playoffs with a win over the Rams, or a Lions loss. If they beat the Rams on Thursday, the Seahawks control their NFC West destiny provided they beat both the Panthers and 49ers to close the year.
San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
Like the Seahawks, the Niners are in with a win (vs. the Colts), or a Lions loss this weekend. Even winning out wouldn’t lock up the division title, however. San Francisco would also need a Rams loss to the Seahawks or Cardinals to make that happen.