FOXBORO — Did the Bills cook up the blueprint to slow Drake Maye and the Patriots offense?
Prior to losing to Buffalo and snapping their 10-game winning streak, the Patriots had what by some metrics could have been considered a “blueprint-proof” attack.
Maye and Co. diced up single-high safety coverage as well as two-high shells. They handled both blitz looks and non-blitz looks expertly. Zone coverage couldn’t slow them. Neither did man. Going into the bye, when looking at the 2025 season to that point, Maye was a top-10 performer against them all when going off his EPA (expected points added) figures.
During the bye, however, we pointed out something that might have qualified as a trend. Against Cover 1 (man-to-man with a single safety deep) looks, between Week 6 and Week 14, Maye dropped to 17th in EPA, and his sack rate was the third-highest in the NFL at nearly 16 percent, per Sports Info Solutions.
Did the Bills see that on tape and try to replicate it in their Week 15 win? Not quite. But they did use their share of man coverage to clamp down on Mike Vrabel’s offense in the second half.
Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott actually used a smorgasbord of principles and threw them all at Maye — sometimes simultaneously.
At times, McDermott disguised coverage, showing Cover 1 and playing Cover 2 in the third quarter, helping lead to a sack. On one third down, they showed Cover 1 and played Cover 5 (man coverage underneath with two high safeties). They later showed Cover 2 and played Cover 5, helping force an incompletion on third down on New England’s final drive.
McDermott also deployed a number of different two-high safety shells, conceivably, to take away the deep shot. Maye has been one of the most efficient deep-ball throwers in the NFL this season, but with multiple bodies playing back, the Bills dared Maye to beat them underneath. On 15 dropbacks in the second half, Buffalo played with two safeties deep on a whopping 80 percent of those snaps.
The Bills also dared Patriots receivers to beat them when faced with tight man coverage. Under McDermott, Buffalo has been traditionally more of a zone-heavy team. But in the second half in Week 15, he called for man coverage on seven of 15 dropbacks. Maye completed two passes against man for 32 total yards.
“When they do play man,” Maye said Wednesday, “we just gotta win at the top of the route. I think our guys have done that and shown that and that they can make contested catches. And me working on ball-placement…
“When you get down late in the season, on third down and the red zone you’re going to see man. Teams are going to play man. (You have to) handle that and win the routes. You have to win versus man in this league, it’s why those guys, the receivers, they get paid. They get paid to do that. Work on ball-placement for me, and I’m just trying to find the open guy.”
Mack Hollins led the Patriots with eight targets against Buffalo. On Wednesday, he shared some of what Patriots receivers have heard from their head coach when it comes to facing man coverage.
“I think one of the biggest things is — and Vrabes touches on this a lot — if you get man, you gotta win,” Hollins said. “And if it’s zone, you gotta give Drake the spacing that he needs on a route, the distribution that he needs on a route, and not getting so caught up in, ‘Oh, all of a sudden it’s man.’
“Don’t be so surprised by man. Don’t be surprised if it looks like man and it goes to zone. Those things can get you in trouble because now all of a sudden Drake is looking at something different. Being able to recognize things (is key). Then, if it’s man-to-man, in this league you got to win or you can’t play in it.”
Lately, the Patriots have had their issues against man-to-man. The Bills gave the Patriots issues with Cover 5, but against any variation of man, per Sports Info Solutions, Maye has completed 56.3 percent of his passes over his last four games. His 6.6 yards per attempt against man in that span ranks 19th in the NFL, as does his quarterback rating of 76.4. His EPA against man coverage in those games is -5.95, which ranks 24th.
“Well, I think that there’s always opportunities for us to win in match coverage,” Vrabel said Wednesday. “I think that there’s been times where we’ve won. Diggs won (against Buffalo) on third down, Mack won on an in-cut. I don’t have the numbers off-hand analytically, but those are at least two.
“I’m sure that there’s times we’re in match that we’re covered, and hopefully Drake can extend the play and cause some play extension or be able to scramble. So, whatever coverage they’re in, we’re going to have to be able to have great spacing and route detail in zone, and then be able to have answers when we do get matched.”
Of course, when an offense is slowed, it doesn’t come down to the performance of one player. Patriots receivers have to hold up their end of the bargain against man, too.
Stefon Diggs likes to see man, he explained on Wednesday. But in his last four games, per Sports Info Solutions, he has caught three passes against man looks for 35 yards. He acknowledged that, in the past, the Ravens — New England’s opponent on Sunday Night Football — have been a man-heavy team.
“I mean, I much prefer it, if you may,” he said of man coverage. “When you get a rolodex of coverages, you got a lot to think about. I mean, [the Ravens] still mix it up. They still play a lot of zone and a lot of man. They mix it up. But in the past, I remember they were a heavy man team…
“But I mean, at least you know what you’re getting. You know, one-on-one, you’re against one other guy. You ain’t got to read too much coverage. But I prefer it, you know, I think we got a lot of skill guys, including myself, like you’ve been doing it for a little while. You know how to get open. You know how to handle yourself. You know, it’s always gonna be a challenge. But better show me than tell me.”
Maye was asked if he feels future opponents — starting with Baltimore this weekend — will try to replicate what the Bills did to stifle the Patriots passing game in their most recent defeat.
“I’m sure teams do whatever other defenses tried to do to ‘stop us’ or feel like worked,” he said. “You try to not overlook that and realize that these teams are going to be who they are. They’ve practiced all year long. But you never really know until you get out there and snap the football and see.
“Obviously we’re trying to work on things that we can control and controlling details: me making throws and better ball placement and better decisions. That’s what we can control. Let the rest sort itself out.”