Seahawks vs. Rams and four more Week 16 games that will have huge impact on playoff races

Only three weeks remain in the NFL regular season, and only two teams have clinched playoff spots, with every division still up for grabs. What that means for NFL fans is that we’re in for a treat down the stretch, as teams jockey not only for playoff berths but playoff positioning, as well.

At this point, you know the drill: We’re going break down five games from the weekly slate that have major playoff, division and first-round bye implications. To do it, we will use The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator, powered by my NFL Projection Model, which gives us an understanding of just how much impact these games will have on the postseason picture.

We’ll start with one game that stands out above the rest: a Thursday night showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks.

The Rams clinched a playoff spot last week, but they have not locked up the NFC West and won’t be able to do so Thursday, either, as a win over the Seahawks puts them at 94 percent to win the division. Still, it would be all but over.

The NFC West race will also have a major impact on the race for the NFC’s top seed. In fact, you’d be hard-pressed to find another game with this much leverage that didn’t include a clinching opportunity. If the Rams win, they project to get the top seed 90 percent of the time. A loss, however, drops those odds to about 20 percent — a whopping 70 percent swing on a single game! Injuries have been mounting for the Rams, the latest to star wide receiver Davante Adams, so locking up a first-round bye would be huge in making sure they’re healthy for a Super Bowl run.

It shouldn’t be a surprise that everything I just said about the Rams applies in the opposite direction for Seattle. If they win, the Seahawks are the NFC West favorites at 55 percent and No. 1-seed favorites at 45 percent. A loss would have them needing a miracle to come out on top in the NFC West. The difference here, in my opinion, is that technically the Seahawks haven’t locked up a playoff berth yet. They’re above 99 percent to make the playoffs, and even if they lost their final three games, would still sit with a 95 percent shot to make the dance. For the record, the Seahawks will clinch a playoff berth with a win or tie or a Lions loss or tie Sunday against the Steelers.

The Packers don’t enter Week 16 as the favorites to win the NFC North, but they’re still looking pretty good at 43 percent. What’s interesting is that, despite facing off against the current division favorite, the model still sees the Packers as more likely to make the playoffs than the Bears. That’s likely because the model believes Green Bay is the better team and has an easier remaining schedule (vs. Ravens, at Vikings) than the Bears (at 49ers, vs. Lions).

The Packers can clinch a playoff spot with a win, plus a Lions loss or tie or with a tie and a Detroit loss. A Packers loss would see their playoff odds drop to 82 percent. But the real juice behind this game is who comes out of Week 16 as the frontrunner in the NFC North. The Packers will see their odds to win the division increase to 77 percent with a win and crater to just 10 percent with a loss.

I didn’t have the Bears leading the NFC North heading into Week 16 on my bingo card, but they still have some work to do to secure the division — and even a playoff spot. The Bears have the same clinching scenario as the Packers this week — win on Saturday and pair that with a Lions loss or tie or tie on Sunday. A win on Saturday would see the Bears’ playoff chances increase to 97 percent. In regard to the division, the Bears don’t have as dramatic of a swing as the Packers, but it’s still quite significant. A win has their NFC North odds at 83 percent, while a loss drops them to 20 percent. They wouldn’t be entirely out of it with a loss, but they’ll need to finish with a better record than Green Bay (who would own tiebreaker after sweeping the season series) if they hope to win their first division crown since 2018.

This is our third consecutive divisional matchup with major playoff implications. Good job, schedule-makers! Despite both teams having the same record (7-7), my model favors the Buccaneers, largely because it sees them as the better team that is also getting healthy at the right time.

The fun part here is that these two teams will square off again in Week 18. A Bucs sweep would result in an NFC South title, but a split will see Tampa Bay’s playoff and division odds increase to 84 percent. So, not all is lost if the Bucs come up short on Sunday, as a Week 18 victory would still have them in good position.

On the other side, you won’t find a more bizarre team week to week than the Panthers. Since November, they have beaten the Packers and Rams but have also dropped two games to the Saints. Wild. Obviously, they’re going to be the inverse of the Bucs here in term of odds. Win both games against the Bucs over the next three weeks, and they will have this division locked up, but a split gives them only a 16 percent chance. In between the Bucs games, the Panthers will play host to the Seahawks. You’d think that would be a loss, but you never know with these Panthers.

The Jaguars sit atop the AFC South, but there is no clinching opportunity for the division this week. They can, however, clinch a playoff spot. The rooting guide for Jags fans is simple: Beat the Broncos and pair that with a Colts loss or tie or a Texans loss or tie.

Frankly, a loss Sunday isn’t too troublesome for the Jags’ playoff hopes. They’d fall from 99 percent to 98 percent. To make the postseason, they really just have to avoid losing out, and even then, my model gives them a 62 percent chance to make the playoffs. The division is where things get dicey this week. The Jags will see a 40 percent swing in their odds to win the division with a win or a loss. A win puts them at 82 percent whereas a loss sees them fall to 42 percent, with the Texans taking over as the favorite.

As for the Broncos, who have already clinched a playoff berth, they’re in the driver’s seat for the AFC’s top seed with a 73 percent chance to secure that first-round bye. A win Sunday boosts those odds to 92 percent, but a loss sees them drop to a virtual coin flip at about 49 percent.

The Broncos actually have a path to clinching the No. 1 seed this week with a win, a Chargers loss, a Patriots loss and a Bills loss. The Broncos can clinch the AFC West with a win and a Chargers loss or tie, or a tie and a Chargers loss.

I won’t say the only game that matters for the Steelers the rest of the season is the Week 18 game against the Ravens, but that’s pretty much the case. Winning this week will boost their division odds from 66 percent to 81 percent, so the game means something, of course. But even dropping this one to the Lions and their Week 17 game to Browns puts them at 49 percent with a Week 18 victory over Baltimore being a ticket into the playoffs. Of course, winning this week paired with a Ravens’ loss would be huge, as the Steelers division odds would jump to 93 percent.

Well, the Lions need to win, and they need some help. Even if they were to win out, their odds to make the playoffs only go to 95 percent. A win over the Steelers gives them a slight bump to 35 percent, while a loss greatly diminishes their chances to 10 percent. Since they need some help, the Lions will benefit from a Packers win over the Bears on Saturday. If Green Bay wins, the Lions will see their odds increase to 32 percent before stepping onto the field Sunday.