Blake Krass makes his straight-up picks for every Week 16 NFL game on DraftKings Sportsbook.
These are my picks to win every Week 16 NFL game straight-up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier.
You can bet on any of these games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 16 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Texans over Raiders
The Texans are playing their best football of the season as they try to chase down the Jaguars in the AFC South. Houston has had the best defense in the NFL all season, but didn’t have the offense to complement that elite unit. However, since C.J. Stroud returned from his concussion and Woody Marks took on a bigger role in the offense, they are playing much better on that side of the ball. Against a completely lost Raiders team, Houston should roll at home.
Bills over Browns
The Bills are coming off a massive win over the Patriots last week. Buffalo now has a chance to chase them down and win the AFC East. It is always a tough trip to Cleveland this time of year, but Josh Allen has proven that he can make the winning plays whenever his team needs them. The Buffalo defense should force Shedeur Sanders into making some mistakes, and the Bills should leave town with a win.
Eagles over Commanders
The Eagles exercised some demons in last week’s 31-0 beatdown of the Raiders. They will try to get some positive momentum rolling into the postseason with a couple more wins down the stretch. This is the first of two games against the Commanders in the final three weeks of the season, and the Eagles should win both if they come to play. Washington ranks 31st in the league in defensive EPA/play, so the Eagles should move the ball with ease and control the game.
Lions over Steelers
The Lions are fighting for their playoff lives and should stay in the hunt with a win over the Steelers. If they had to travel to Pittsburgh and play in winter conditions, it would be a different story. However, the Detroit offense should look sharp and explosive at home. The Steelers don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Lions if this becomes a shootout. Detroit should handle business and keep its playoff hopes alive this week.
49ers over Colts
The 49ers are taking on Philip Rivers and the Colts in Rivers’ second start of the season. While the Colts put up a good fight against the Seahawks, Rivers is not a threat in the passing game. It’s a nice story and fun to see Rivers out there, but he isn’t able to push it down the field. The Colts will try to run the ball and control the game that way, but ultimately, the 49ers’ offense should win out and secure the victory.
Medium Confidence
Saints over Jets
These are two teams that aren’t excellent, but the Saints have gotten much better quarterback play as of late. Brady Cook played solid football in his first career start, but Tyler Shough has been playing really well for the Saints the past few weeks. They have won back-to-back games over division rivals, who are vying for playoff positions. This will be an easier test for them against the Jets at home. The New Orleans defense should limit what the Jets want to do, and the edge at quarterback should ensure the Saints win this one.
Chiefs over Titans
Gardner Minshew will be getting the start for the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes out for the rest of the season. Minshew is an experienced backup who has started many games in the NFL. He should be prepared to come into this offense and manage things adequately. Despite the Chiefs being out of playoff contention, this is a proud team with good players and coaches. They should keep fighting the rest of the season and trying to win games. The Titans still only have two wins on the season, and even with Minshew at quarterback, this is a tough matchup for them.
Packers over Bears
The Packers and Bears face off for the second time in three weeks. The winner of this game will take the lead in the NFC North and have a chance to close things out over the final two weeks. The loser is actually at risk of missing the playoffs with the Lions chasing down that final playoff spot, making the game even more important. The Bears are just 1-11 in their last 12 against the Packers, with that one win coming when the Packers benched starters in Week 18 of last season. Until they prove that they can get over the hump and beat the Packers, I’ll keep backing Green Bay.
Bengals over Dolphins
The Dolphins announced that they are starting Quinn Ewers for this game. While the Bengals have struggled this season, Joe Burrow should be able to move the ball through the air against a poor Miami secondary. If Ewers is forced to try to keep up with Burrow in his first career start, that will likely lead to mistakes and negative plays. The Bengals’ offense should have enough gas left in the tank to get a win here.
Falcons over Cardinals
The Falcons are on extended rest after beating Tampa Bay on Thursday night last week. That should help them get a win over the struggling Cardinals this week. Arizona has now lost six straight games and it’s challenging to imagine things getting better before the season ends. Drake London is expected to return this week, and between him and Bijan Robinson, the Falcons will have the two best players on the field in this game. Those two should create enough plays to ensure the Falcons win this game.
Ravens over Patriots
This is one of the most exciting games of the weekend. The Patriots are still trying to hold off the Bills in the AFC East, while the Ravens are fighting to get into the postseason. It should be an incredible environment in Baltimore for this massive game against an AFC rival. Ultimately, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry have played in a lot more games with a playoff atmosphere than Drake Maye has. That was evident last week when the Patriots let the game slip away against Josh Allen. Winning these games often takes big-game experience, and Lamar Jackson has the edge there. This should be a tight game, but the Ravens have the players who will find a way to win at home.
Coin-Flip Games
Broncos over Jaguars
The Broncos just keep winning. These are two of the hottest teams in football, with the Broncos on an 11-game winning streak and the Jaguars on a five-game winning streak. Both teams have some flaws, but have found a way to win games in spite of those flaws. However, it’s difficult to go against Denver in this game. The Broncos haven’t lost a home game yet this season, and it’s a tough cross-country trip for the Jaguars. The Broncos can lock up the AFC West with a win here, and they should be able to get it done at home.
Vikings over Giants
The Vikings are starting to play a bit better, having won back-to-back games since J.J. McCarthy returned. They will want to build some positive momentum to end the season to feel confident in this group heading into next season. Meanwhile, things are ugly in New York. The Giants have lost eight straight games and are seemingly playing worse every week. The Vikings have a much better coaching staff, and that should be enough to ensure a win this week.
Chargers over Cowboys
The Chargers are looking to hang on to a playoff spot, while the Cowboys look to keep their long-shot playoff hopes alive for another week. The Chargers are coming off two straight quality wins over the Eagles and Chiefs. Their defense is playing at a high level, and Justin Herbert is making plays when needed. They should find a way to win, even on the road against an explosive Dallas offense.
Buccaneers over Panthers
The Buccaneers and Panthers face off in one of the biggest games of the weekend. The winner will take over first place in the NFC South and control their own destiny to the postseason. Meanwhile, the loser is likely out of the playoffs, as neither team is in wildcard contention. Tampa Bay has more experienced players, who have been in playoff environments like this in the past. They have really struggled recently, but when the chips are down, I’ll back the veteran team in a game like this.
Seahawks over Rams
This is another game that will likely decide an NFC divisional race. The winner of this game will take over first place in the NFC and will likely also get the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. The difference between a first-round bye and going on the road in the Wildcard Round will massively shift these teams’ odds to win the Super Bowl, making this almost a playoff game in its own right. The Rams got the better of the Seahawks in the first matchup, but that was at home in a game where Sam Darnold threw four interceptions. Despite that bad performance from Darnold, the Rams just scraped out a win. Darnold should be much better at home in this second matchup, and the Seahawks should secure this massive win at home.