FOXBORO, Mass. – New England Patriots coach Mike Vrabel didn’t shy away from the challenge ahead.

The Baltimore Ravens are a desperate team badly in need of a win with a two-time MVP at quarterback. Vrabel called safety Kyle Hamilton “one of the best players in this league.” He gave a scouting report on Derrick Henry, long the game’s best running back, whom Vrabel coached for six seasons in Tennessee.

So, yes, the task that awaits the Patriots on Sunday night in Baltimore is a stiff one.

“They’re playing well, they’re playing with a lot of confidence, and it’ll be a huge test,” Vrabel said.

But, oddly, it isn’t likely to have a huge effect on the Patriots’ playoff positioning. Their chances of winning the AFC East are 82 percent if they beat the Ravens on Sunday, according to our Playoff Simulator, but they only fall to 65 percent with a loss.

The more important matchups when it comes to determining if the Pats will host a playoff game are the in-division tilts to end the season at the New York Jets and at home against the Miami Dolphins. Win both of those games, and the Pats will win the division regardless of anything else that happens.

This weekend, though, the Patriots can formalize what has felt like a certainty for weeks — that they’re playoff-bound. They’ll officially clinch a spot in the postseason with a win or tie against the Ravens; if the Houston Texans lose or tie against the Las Vegas Raiders; or if the Indianapolis Colts lose or tie against the San Francisco 49ers on “Monday Night Football.”

After that, it’s about determining whether the Pats will get a home playoff game — and looking ahead to who they could play.

There’s still a chance of getting the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the first-round bye that comes with it, but New England is a long shot (there’s a 10 percent chance, according to our simulator). The Patriots would need to win out, while the Denver Broncos would need to close the season 1-2 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers.

Still, an AFC East title is likely, with the Pats currently having a 73 percent chance to end the Buffalo Bills’ five-year run atop the division, according to our simulator. The Bills would have to run the table against the Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Jets to put any pressure on the Patriots.

So that leaves the Patriots most likely to earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC and guaranteed home playoff games for at least two rounds if they make it that far.

If that’s the case, they’d likely face one of four teams in the wild-card round: the Bills, Chargers, Jaguars or Texans. Let’s look at each of those possibilities.

The Bills might be the most intriguing of the options for TV networks, but that would make for a difficult game after they just came to Gillette Stadium and overcame a 21-0 lead to knock off the Patriots. Plus, while the Bills defense ranks lowest among those four possible opponents (based on expected points added per play), they have the second-best offense in the NFL (based on the same metric), and Josh Allen is capable of doing things few others are. Plus, the roster boasts plenty of playoff experience.

The Texans would be a tough matchup, too, especially if the Patriots don’t have Will Campbell back. Houston’s starting edge rushers, Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, are likely the NFL’s best duo and would be a massive challenge for the New England O-line. As a whole, the Texans defense is the best in the league based on EPA per play and is third in success rate. Their offense isn’t great, but their defense is playing so well.

The Jaguars have quietly won five straight games and have a Coach of the Year candidate in Liam Coen, who has Jacksonville playing well in spite of a just-OK season from quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The Jacksonville defense has been great this season and ranks seventh in EPA per play (one spot ahead of the Broncos). And while the total offensive numbers aren’t incredible, the Jags rank 13th in EPA per play since acquiring receiver Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline.

Finally, the Chargers, like the Jaguars, would come to New England with a great defense (ranking fifth in EPA/play) but are susceptible offensively. While the Patriots’ pass rushers aren’t elite, the Chargers have major injuries on their offensive line and could be a favorable matchup there for New England, especially considering the long trip east from Los Angeles.

All that said, while Sunday night’s game in Baltimore might not be huge for playoff seeding, it’s a big game for the Patriots in terms of narratives.

Perhaps they’ll bounce back from a tough loss and look poised for a deep playoff run as they enter an easy final two games. Or they’ll lose a second straight game against a potential playoff team, prompting concerns about just how good they’ve been all along.