FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. – Atlanta Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich has been happy to see James Pearce Jr.’s improved practice habits rewarded with on-field production. If those improvements ultimately lead to a Defensive Rookie of the Year award, even better, he said.
“I’m hyper-focused on this game, as we always are, but at the same time, that’s something that I recognize as being special,” Ulbrich said. “Now, will we do something out of our scheme to make that happen? No. It’s not that important, but at the same time, it’s an amazing feat, and it’s one to be celebrated. If he were to get it, it would be great.”
The Falcons’ rookie edge rusher out of Tennessee has made himself a candidate for the award by notching at least one sack in each of the last six games heading into Sunday’s in Arizona against the Cardinals (3-11). But he’ll need to continue and maybe even quicken that pace to actually win the award, according to the Las Vegas oddsmakers who set the betting lines for the league’s postseason awards.
“He’s really come on strong,” Johnny Avello, the sportsbook director at DraftKings, said. “The problem is he’s got to catch Carson Schwesinger.”
Schwesinger, a linebacker selected by the Cleveland Browns with the first pick of the second round, is the betting favorite for the award at every major sportsbook. He is sixth in the NFL in tackles (133) and is minus-350 at BetMGM, meaning a bet of $350 would return $100. Seattle safety Nick Emmanwori is next at plus-250, followed by Pearce at plus-900 and Atlanta’s Jalon Walker at plus-6600.
“To overtake both Schwesinger and Emmanwori would be tough,” Borgata sportsbook director Tom Gable said via email. “Emmanwori has closed the gap with the last few weeks, but I think if Schwesinger plays out the remaining games and puts up comparable numbers to what he has all season, it will be his award. I realize that Pearce winning it has been pushed on social media lately, but he would need to continue to have multi-sack games to overtake both of the guys in front of him.”
The 1-2 combo 😤@JalonWlaker x @JamesPearceJr10https://t.co/4yVnQQtuax pic.twitter.com/fCPjPbebbN
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) November 13, 2025
Pearce was unaware of his standing in the betting markets, he said.
“Shoutout to (Schwesinger and Emmanwori), though,” he said.
The award would be a feather in the cap for the Falcons, considering Atlanta’s acquisition of him is sure to be under scrutiny in the run-up to the 2026 NFL Draft. The Falcons traded their 2026 first-round pick to the Rams to obtain the No. 26 pick in the 2025 draft, which they used on Pearce.
“I know who my guys are, they know who I am and I’m willing to go to war with them for that,” Pearce said. Winning the award “would be great, it’d be awesome, a good accomplishment for my first season, I guess.”
Pearce leads all rookies in sacks (eight) and splash-play rate (12.5 percent), according to TruMedia, which combines sacks, pressures, tackles for loss, turnovers created and other momentum-changing defensive plays. Schwesinger, who leads all rookies in tackles for loss that aren’t sacks (nine) and third- and fourth-down stops (nine), is 24th among rookies in splash rate (5.9 percent). Emmanwori, who has 11 passes defended, is 15th (7.2 percent).
“If Pearce goes out and gets another four sacks in the next three games and Schwesinger doesn’t have any wow stats, it could happen,” Avello said. “I wouldn’t say Schwesinger is an absolutely sure thing at this point, but he’s in a pretty secure position.”
Pearce does have momentum on his side. Only Myles Garrett (eight games with at least one sack) has a longer active sack streak than Pearce this season, and Micah Parsons, Jevon Kearse and Mike Croel are the only other players who in their rookie season had sacks in at least six straight games since the league began officially tracking sacks in 1982.
“Recency bias actually has a huge impact, so while he’s sitting here right now at about an 8 percent chance, recency definitely plays a role,” BetMGM sports trader Christian Cipollini said. “If he continues that sack pace, he’s definitely going to be in the conversation.”
BetMGM took two “medium-sized” bets on Pearce to win the award this week, Cipollini said.
“He’s our fourth-most bet on player, and I would imagine a lot of that came somewhat recently,” he said.
Pearce’s eight sacks lead an Atlanta team that has undergone one of the most dramatic pass-rush turnarounds in league history. After averaging a league-low 1.99 sacks per game from 2000 to 2024, the Falcons are second in the league this year with 48 sacks, their highest team total since 1997, when they had a franchise-best 55.
Schwesinger “is in a strong position,” Avello said, “but I’ve seen in these markets before where somebody who is in the third or fourth spot with three weeks to go has rallied. Aaron Rodgers won the MVP a few years ago when he was 10-to-1 with only four or five weeks to go. It can happen. Guys can have a great finish to the season, and that can be the story.”
The Falcons (5-9) have games remaining against the Cardinals, Rams and Saints. Arizona is 15th in the league in sack percentage allowed (6.4), Los Angeles is 18th (6.6) and New Orleans is second (4.9). The game against the Rams on “Monday Night Football” on Dec. 29 could be particularly important for Pearce, Cipollini said.
“If he goes off for three sacks, yeah, that’s going to be a huge factor in the voters’ minds,” Cipollini said.
Pearce is attempting to be the first Falcon to win the Defensive Rookie of the Year award since 1980, when linebackers Al Richardson and Buddy Curry shared the award. (Bijan Robinson won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award in 2023.)
The Defensive Rookie of the Year award is chosen by a 50-person panel assembled by the Associated Press. The same group picks the AP All-Pro team and its other end-of-season awards. The DROY is the hardest of those awards to handicap, said Cipollini.
“Any offensive award, there are a lot more stats, and it’s a lot easier to read. Those people pop off the page more,” Cipollini said. “There’s a lot more nuance. That’s a lot of what this market ends up being is the bookmaker trying to determine what the voters are going to end up doing more than who deserves the award or who should win it.”
Regardless of how this season ends, Ulbrich believes it is only the start for Pearce.
“Goodness gracious, there is so much more meat on the bone,” the coach said. “He is finding his way, and he’s growing. He’s getting better every week, process included, but there is still so much more out there for him. When this game starts to slow down, he really starts to figure out the game and his own skill set and his self-awareness goes to another space, he’s got a bright, bright future.”