There’s been a lot of doom and gloom in here since the Micah Parsons injury, for good reason, but let’s look for optimism for the Green Bay Packers this year. There are still three more games left in the regular season, with the potential for the Packers to secure a playoff spot as early as Sunday. So how bad are Green Bay’s Super Bowl chances, actually?

Let’s take a look at the two largest sportsbooks to see how the Packers stack in Super Bowl odds after the Los Angeles Rams lost to the Seattle Seahawks, giving Seattle the lead in the NFC West and the NFC overall.

Los Angeles Rams: +490Seattle Seahawks: +550Buffalo Bills: +800Denver Broncos: +850Philadelphia Eagles: +1000Green Bay Packers: +1100 (8.3% implied probability)Los Angeles Rams: +425Seattle Seahawks: +500Denver Broncos: +750Buffalo Bills: +800Philadelphia Eagles: +1100Houston Texans: +1100New England Patriots: +1500Green Bay Packers: +1500 (6.3%)

For the most part, books seem to like the Packers’ chances more than the power rankings right now. In general, Green Bay is hovering around 8th to 10th in power rankings, while these books have the Packers ranked as the sixth- and eighth-most probable Super Bowl winners this year.

So here’s the question I wanted to answer: Which teams that actually got it done in the postseason had a worse shot, at least in the mind of books, than the Packers? Well, Sports Odds History has a list of Super Bowl odds going into Wild Card Weekend dating back to 1980, so we can actually answer that.

Super Bowl winners who beat the odds

2007 New York Giants (+5000) and 2011 New York Giants (+2200)

Yes, Eli Manning pulled off the two longest Super Bowl champion tickets in the history of the sport. In 2007, the 10-6 Giants were given just a two percent implied probability to win it all. They won three games on the road to win the NFC, capped off with an overtime win in Brett Favre’s last game as a Packer, before beating a previously undefeated New England Patriots team in the Super Bowl.

Four years later, Manning’s Giants did it again, turning a 9-7 regular season record into another improbable Super Bowl run that again featured a win at Lambeau Field (this time in the divisional round) and the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

2012 Baltimore Ravens (+2000)

This is your Jordan Love Toyotathon dream comparison. The 10-6 Ravens scored 124 points in the playoffs (31 points a game) after averaging just 21.5 points a game during the regular season.

During that run, quarterback Joe Flacco threw 1,140 yards on 126 passes (nine yards per attempt) with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions for a passer rating of 117.2. At +2000, Baltimore had a five percent implied probability to win the Super Bowl going into the postseason.

2017 Philadelphia Eagles (+1500) and 1980 Oakland Raiders (+1500)

Both of these teams, which had an implied win probability equal to the Packers’ Super Bowl odds on DraftKings, were dealing with odd quarterback situations.

The 2017 Philadelphia Eagles had quarterback Carson Wentz, who was on an MVP pace, go down with a torn ACL in Week 14. From there on out, Nick Foles was the team’s starter. He almost threw the game away against the Atlanta Falcons, but the team survived their divisional round game (they had a first-round bye), blew out the Case Keenum Minnesota Vikings 38-7 and eventually beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl with the Philly Special.

In 1980, the Oakland Raiders drafted quarterback Marc Wilson in the first round and traded their former MVP quarterback, Kenny Stabler, to the Houston Oilers for Dan Pastorini, who made only five starts with the team due to injuries and poor performance. That season, Pastorini threw 130 passes for just five touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Instead of finishing the year with Pastorini, the Raiders decided to ride out Jim Plunkett, a 1971 first overall pick who had previously flamed out with the New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers. Going into 1980, Plunkett had been a Raider for two seasons and had only thrown 15 passes for the team. While Oakland was 9-2 under Plunkett, the quarterback threw for 18 touchdowns and 16 interceptions during the regular season.

In the first two games of the postseason, Plunkett completed just 22 of 53 passes (42 percent) for two touchdowns and three interceptions, but in the AFC Championship and Super Bowl, Plunkett went on a tear, completing 27 of 39 passes (69%) for 13.4 yards per pass and five touchdowns.

If you’re going off DraftKings’ odds, this is where the list ends. If you’re using FanDuel’s numbers as a point of reference, though, you can add the following teams to the list:

2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1200, 8%)2010 Green Bay Packers (+1200, 8%)2000 Baltimore Ravens (+1200, 8%)2021 Los Angeles Rams (+1100, 8%)

Yes, the 2025 Packers have better Super Bowl odds on FanDuel right now than the 2010 team had in most books. One interesting parallel (and it might take another article to fully break this down) is that both the 2010 and 2025 teams just haven’t lost games by multiple scores.

Despite the 2010 Packers having a 10-6 record, they won six games by nine or more points (two possessions) but were 4-6 in single-possession games. They didn’t lose a single game by more than eight points, which is rare, even among top teams in the league.

The 2025 Packers have won five games by nine or more points but are 4-4-1 in single-possession games. The only other teams to avoid multiple-score losses this year are the NFC’s Seahawks and Rams and the AFC’s Patriots, Texans and Broncos.