Each week during the regular season and occasionally during the offseason, our AFC North writers tackle the pressing questions and biggest storylines around the division. This week, we welcome Jason Lloyd into the mix as we discuss the home stretch of the division race and whether the Cincinnati Bengals should keep playing Joe Burrow.
The Steelers maintained their one-game lead over the Ravens with three to play, including a Week 18 rematch between the teams. Baltimore, which takes the division if it wins out, also plays the New England Patriots at home and Green Bay Packers on the road. Pittsburgh has back-to-back road games against the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns before coming home to face the Ravens. Call your shot: Will the division be on the line in that Week 18 game, or will the Steelers already have it clinched?
Mike DeFabo (Steelers): For months, I’ve been saying the division will be decided Week 18 in Pittsburgh. I’m not going to change my tune now. Even though the Ravens should be underdogs in their next two games, I think they’ll find a way to win one to keep things interesting. The Steelers will likely lose this week in Detroit and beat the Browns to enter the final week of the season at 9-7.
Jeff Zrebiec (Ravens): I’m going to say the division will be on the line, not because I’m an ardent believer in these Ravens, but because the NFL is the best reality show in sports — and it would only be fitting to have a winner-take-all Week 18 matchup between longtime rivals in prime time. Honestly, the AFC North race might be the only drama left in this playoff hunt, so the league better hope the Ravens-Steelers Week 18 game means something. The bet here is that both teams go 1-1 the next two weeks, setting the stage for the decisive matchup.
Paul Dehner Jr. (Bengals): This has to come down to Week 18, right? These two teams are just too similarly flawed for that not to be the case. This is how the NFL works. The storyline always comes to a head. Both teams will split the next two games, and the Ravens will have a chance at the title in Pittsburgh.
Jason Lloyd (Browns): The Ravens have the league’s third-toughest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon, and the Steelers get the Browns in Week 17. Advantage, Pittsburgh. My initial thought is the Steelers will have it all wrapped up before the final week, but this is the AFC North, where weird and strange is just another food group. Give me a Week 18 game for the division title between two rivals, although admittedly, it might just be wishful thinking at this point.
Bengals coach Zac Taylor said this week that quarterback Joe Burrow will play the rest of the season despite the fact that Cincinnati has been eliminated and Burrow made a rapid return from toe surgery. Is that the right call by the Bengals?
DeFabo: I could see the argument for both sides here. But the biggest factor, to me, is Burrow himself. If he feels healthy enough to play and wants to be out there, he should have the right to make that call. That’s especially true given his recent cryptic comments that I’m still trying to decipher. The last thing the franchise needs is a disgruntled QB unhappy that he’s being shut down.
Zrebiec: Burrow is the franchise, and he’s earned the right to make that call. If he feels like a strong finish would create some much-needed momentum ahead of a key offseason, then I think you’re OK running him out there. But the conversation at least needs to be had between him and the organization — and I assume it has — about the pros and cons of shutting it down. He didn’t exactly look like himself on Sunday. Plus, if they win two or three of these games down the stretch, they might find themselves drafting well outside the top 10, which would be a kick in the you know where after this lost season.
Dehner Jr.: Hard to know what the right call is for Burrow, given the state of things. I’ll say this: I’m more concerned about him mentally right now than physically. The injury hasn’t seemed to have any impact on him in the way he plays or his ability to protect himself. Specifically after last week’s news conference and poor outing Sunday, he looks like a guy who could use playing well and experiencing winning again. He wants to play. He’s the leader of the team. The idea of ripping off three straight wins to close this season, where he plays well, could go a long way to helping him get back into a better headspace entering the offseason. Now, if he gets hurt again in the process, you never read this answer.
Lloyd: Sometimes teams have to protect guys from themselves. What is the upside of letting him play? Obviously, he wants to, and the relationship between player and team suddenly seems a bit fragile, which might be the reason for letting him go back out there. But he doesn’t need the reps and, if anything, with games against the Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals and Browns, the Bengals might run into a couple of extra wins and cost themselves a top 10 pick. Go home, Joe. Rest. Enjoy a spa day. Make sure you’re right for next year, and at least get a top draft pick out of this miserable season.
As you probably know by now, we’re never opposed to the annual cheesy holiday question. Why break tradition? What’s the one gift the organization you cover most wants under its Christmas tree?
DeFabo: From Weeks 10 to 13, Aaron Rodgers posted a passer rating of 67.6, a completion percentage of 52.2 and a minus-0.18 EPA per attempt with two touchdowns and three turnovers. At the time, it was fair to wonder if we were watching a rerun of the 2020 Ben Roethlisberger season or the 2024 campaign with Russell Wilson. But just as the 42-year-old began to show signs of concern, he bounced back in a big way, playing his two best games in the two most important matchups of the season.
In wins over the Ravens and Dolphins, Rodgers put up a passer rating of 116, a completion percentage of 75.4 and a 0.33 EPA per attempt with three touchdowns and no turnovers. Coach Mike Tomlin said the Steelers did business with Rodgers for moments like these. If Rodgers can continue the trend and turn back the clock in the playoffs, it will be a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year in Pittsburgh.
Zrebiec: It would be easy to say three more regular-season wins, which would guarantee the Ravens an AFC North title and a playoff berth, but even after a 1-5 start, even after two straight home divisional losses in recent weeks, just going to the postseason isn’t going to salvage this year of great expectations for the Ravens. An early playoff ouster would only add another chapter to the same ol’ Ravens in January storyline. Ultimately, only a legitimate playoff run will make this season feel like a success, so five or six consecutive wins would be the wish. And I realize that’s quite ambitious for a team currently out of the playoff field.
Dehner Jr.: Remember the neuralyzer from the movie “Men in Black”? When Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones realized you had seen them or the aliens they were policing, they would pull out the neuralyzer, and the person would forget everything they’d seen. It had a dial to set for a specific amount of time. I think the Bengals’ brass would love one of those and set the dial back three years. Use it on every Bengals fan who exists and go back to the good times when the future was full of excitement for playoff and Super Bowl appearances with one of the great quarterbacks of this generation and an organization that grew into the most beloved entity in town. That and a dominant three-technique defensive tackle.
Lloyd: Clarity at quarterback. Either Shedeur Sanders takes hold of the job with incredible performances against playoff contenders such as the Buffalo Bills and Steelers these next two weeks, or the Browns have a high enough pick in the draft to go get their guy without having to trade up. There are plenty of questions to sort through at head coach and within the front office, but until they find an answer at the position that has eluded them for 25 years, everything else is secondary.
It’s a big AFC East vs. AFC North week with the Bills-Browns, Dolphins-Bengals and Ravens-Patriots. And then you’ve got the Steelers at Detroit. Pick the winners.
DeFabo: After the Steelers allowed back-to-back, 200-plus-yard rushing outbursts to the Bills and Ravens, the run defense came to play on “Monday Night Football,” holding the Dolphins to 63 rushing yards. The Steelers get another shot-in-the-arm this week when first-round defensive tackle Derrick Harmon returns from injury.
Still, I think the Steelers will have their hands full against the NFL’s highest-scoring offense and fifth-best rushing attack. I’m taking the Lions. The Ravens are in must-win territory. I think they’ll find a way in a weird, low-possession game. The Bengals and Dolphins have been eliminated from the playoffs, but it feels like Burrow might still have something to prove after putting the blame on himself in the last game. I’ll pick Cincinnati. The Browns are in for a long day.
Zrebiec: Let’s get the two easy calls out of the way first. The Bills should handle the Browns. I don’t see Burrow playing that poorly two games in a row, and his “B” game should be enough to beat a Dolphins team that looked pretty battered and beaten Monday night in Pittsburgh. This is a tough spot for the Steelers. They’re on a short week and facing a desperate team. I think the Lions pull out a close win.
The Ravens have beaten only one team with a winning record all season. They’ve been bad at home. Before last Sunday, their defense had struggled against quality quarterbacks. Mike Vrabel has won big games in Baltimore. Everything points to the Patriots, but I’m going to pick the Ravens. I think they gained a little confidence in Cincinnati, and that could carry over.
Dehner Jr.: The Bills are heating up, and the Browns, well, aren’t. Give me the Lions and Patriots beating the AFC North foes as a reminder that nobody in this division is on par with the NFL’s upper crust yet. Then the Bengals pull off a win in Miami because they are starting Burrow, and the Dolphins aren’t.
Lloyd: The Bills can clinch a playoff spot with a win and a little help. The Browns just need help … everywhere. And they need this miserable season to end. Give me the Bills in what could look like a home game in Cleveland for Bills Mafia. The Dolphins haven’t been able to throw the ball consistently all season. Give me the Bengals in a mild upset on the road — more reason why Burrow should be sitting.
If the Patriots aren’t careful, they’re going to let the Bills sneak back into the race for the division. New England has been terrific on the road, but the Ravens are fighting for their playoff lives. They win at home, hand the Patriots their first road loss of the season and keep hope alive for the postseason. The Lions lost last week and haven’t dropped consecutive games in more than three years. That streak continues with a home win over the Steelers. See? The Ravens aren’t dead yet.