On the 16th week of football, the TV gives to us … fine, we’re not doing the whole countdown thing, but “five Broncos blitzing” would’ve landed. Somewhere, Vance Joseph bops his head to the groove.
Our usual NFL Sunday slate rankings get the nose-and-antlers decorations that people put on their cars. Dec. 21 is not Dec. 25, and there’s a special three-game suite celebrating next Thursday’s holiday. We’ve been rewatching our favorite Christmas movies, though, leaving us in a festive mood.
On Sunday, we will see fans (and mascots) dressed as Santa Claus, and the football itself should be excellent. There’s a clash between division leaders with double-digit wins, and several other games have playoff stakes on both sidelines. Myles Garrett has a chance to tie or break the league’s single-season sack record, on his home field and against the reigning MVP. ‘Tis the season to watch in quad box.
All times ET and all game odds via BetMGM.
Week 16 Sunday viewing guide
Watching in person? Get tickets on StubHub.
GameTimeTVStreaming
Bucs at Panthers
1 p.m.
Fox
Chargers at Cowboys
1 p.m.
Fox
Bills at Browns
1 p.m.
CBS
Jaguars at Broncos
4:05 p.m.
Fox
Patriots at Ravens
8:20 p.m.
NBC
Peacock
In-market CBS and Fox games are free over the air. “Sunday Night Football” is a national broadcast, and NBC is also free over the air.
Two honorable mentions before we tear through the wrapping paper (pattern: pylon as a Christmas tree). Cincinnati Bengals (4-10) at Miami Dolphins (6-8) doesn’t have true holiday glow, as the forecast calls for 80-degree heat. We do want to cast Quinn Ewers in a Sunday remake of “The Santa Clause,” though. In that 1994 movie, Scott Calvin (Tim Allen) is suddenly on the hook for Santa duties. In Miami, Ewers is set to make his first NFL start. The rookie gets to show the Dolphins what he’s capable of now that Tua Tagovailoa has been relegated to the bench after six seasons as QB1.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) at Detroit Lions (8-6) has acute playoff pressure. But Ford Field games feel like Thanksgiving more than anything else, and the color scheme of mustard yellow and Honolulu blue throws us off. Even so, it’s still worthy of putting on the main screen. The Lions have yet to beat the Steelers this century (0-5-1 since 2000), so Dan Campbell tries his own spin on Fred Gailey for what we’ll call “Miracle on Brush Street.”
Now to our rankings:
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4) at Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)
Starring Jerry Jones as Ebenezer Scrooge
Like the Lions, the Cowboys host an annual Thanksgiving game. But Dallas makes the cut because of its silver-bell commitment to Christmas. The franchise throws a month-long “extravaganza.” The Salvation Army red kettle is a strong end zone visual and a touchdown celebration landmark. “Home for the holidays” really means something to Brian Schottenheimer, as he’s 4-2-1 in Arlington and 2-5 everywhere else. That customary glass of milk on the table really means something to Jim Harbaugh, who can’t get enough of the stuff (unless it’s skim).
Dallas’ defense basically comes with a huge red bow — it starts the week at No. 30 in third-down conversion rate and No. 31 in points allowed. Jerry Jones is “bah humbug”-ing through another lost season, but the Cowboys can throw coal at their guests, who are jockeying for playoff seeding. A top wild card would almost certainly bring on the modest AFC North winner, while a lower spot could mean the Chargers would have to visit Mile High or Foxborough.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) at Carolina Panthers (7-7)
Starring Bryce Young as Clark “Sparky” Griswold
Someone has to win the NFC South, right? Choose your fighter: The Bucs enter Sunday with five losses in their last six games, and after Week 6, their only wins have come against last-place teams (New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals). If that doesn’t sound like your champion, toggle the joystick to the Panthers. Dave Canales’ crew leads the league in inexplicability — since November, Carolina has wins against the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers, and has taken two Ls from the lowly Saints.
Bryce Young welcomes Baker Mayfield into his Charlotte house. Disorder pours in from both families. Cheers to “National Lampoon’s NFC South Vacation.” Bonus points for Sir Purr’s commitment:
And a Panther in a pear tree. (Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) at Denver Broncos (12-2)
Starring Trevor Lawrence as Buddy the Elf and the Broncos defense as the Grinch
The Duval County contingent carries a rep as the NFL’s island of misfit toys. Liam Coen acknowledged it a few weeks ago. In most years, a red nose fits right onto the Jaguars logo, but in 2025, the misfits have become mismatches. And 6-foot-6 Trevor Lawrence is our protagonist as Buddy the Elf, maturing from giant question mark to infectious spirit-raiser. It’s a perfect visual if we swap out green and yellow for teal and gold (close enough).
Jacksonville hits the week with top-10 rankings in scoring offense and defense. It’s stacked five Ws in a row and claimed a division lead. Even the coldest cynics are beginning to believe. The Athletic’s NFL prediction model has the Jags with an 82 percent chance of seizing the AFC South with a win Sunday.
Sean Payton’s Broncos counter with a front seven of Grinches. Heading into Week 15, Denver paces the league in sacks with 58. That’s 10 more than the second-place Atlanta Falcons. Per NFL Media, that’s also tied for the second-most through 14 games since 1990. You’re a mean one, Mr. … well, take your pick. Nick Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper soar off the edge, as Zach Allen and John Franklin-Myers pinch from the line. The conference’s first-round bye is Denver’s to lose. The Broncos clinch the top seed if they go 2-1 down the stretch and could even claim it this week if everything goes their way. Viewers get North Pole vibes in the blustery altitude.
2. New England Patriots (11-3) at Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
Starring Drake Maye as Kevin McAllister
He seems harmless — one of the youngest QBs in the league, fresh-faced with a full smile. Then he snaps into attack and opponents end up on the ground in sprawling humiliation. Drake Maye carries MVP stock and an AFC East lead into the last bend of his sophomore season. New England’s Week 1 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders was like the power outage at the McCallister house. Since then, it’s been nothing but hijinks and highlights.
He’s not the only Patriot in “Home Alone” mode, either. Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson was an afterthought in the beginning of the campaign. According to TruMedia, he ranks fifth in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per carry dating to Week 9. He’s coming off a career-high 161 scrimmage yards in last week’s narrow loss to the Buffalo Bills.
Also from TruMedia: In Weeks 1-6, Baltimore’s defense went minus-54.6 in EPA. From Week 7 onward, that mark is plus-71.5. Lamar Jackson threw only 12 passes in the prior Sunday’s win at Cincinnati. He’ll likely be tasked with a larger workload as the Ravens try to close their one-game divisional deficit. The two-time MVP QB has come alive in recent Christmas showcases — a statement moment at the San Francisco 49ers’ expense in 2023, and setting the NFL’s career quarterback rushing record against the Houston Texans in 2024.
Unbeknownst to them, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry picked each other for Secret Santa. (Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
1. Buffalo Bills (10-4) at Cleveland Browns (3-11)
Starring Myles Garrett as John McClane
The Bills have inspired their own Hallmark Channel movie. This is not a bit: “Holiday Touchdown: A Bills Love Story” is a real thing! Buffalo’s fans are known to mobilize around the giving season. On the field, Josh Allen stepping through the pocket and rushing to open space is football’s equivalent of downhill sledding. And the offense has the requisite mentality of abundance — through 15 weeks, Buffalo has rushed for more yards than any of its peers, and is the second-best scoring team by points per drive.
That offense will be tested and likely contorted by the sport’s ultimate pass rusher. Going against Myles Garrett must feel like flying a five-leg redeye on Christmas Eve. Being Myles Garrett must feel like a beat-for-beat recreation of “Die Hard.” He’s on a one-man, triple-block mission while the rest of the Browns curdle around him.
With one takedown of Allen, Garrett would tie Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt for the league’s single-season sack record, and he’d do so in just 15 games. He arrives Sunday with an eight-game sack streak, and even wilder, he has a total of 17 1/2 in that stretch. Cleveland’s weather is expected to dip below freezing. “Yippee-ki-yay.”
Updated Week 16 odds
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