NFL playoff picture: Seahawks take control of No. 1 seed in NFC, clinch playoff berth

Here’s how the NFL playoff picture looks as Week 16 gets cranking, starting with the fallout from Seattle and the Seahawks’ big overtime victory against the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night.

(* Clinched playoff spot)

NFC

1. Seattle Seahawks (12-3)*: Up next — at Carolina Panthers, Week 17

NFC No. 1 seed-clinching scenario: The Seahawks are in the driver’s seat for home-field advantage in the NFC. Two victories to close out the season — vs. the Panthers and 49ers — will give them the NFC West crown, a first-round bye and home-field throughout the conference playoffs.

Notable odds: Seattle has a 52% chance of holding onto the No. 1 seed and a 55% probability of winning the NFC West, according to The Athletic’s playoff predictor. That’s how big Thursday night’s victory was for Sam Darnold and company.

2. Chicago Bears (10-4): Up next — vs. Green Bay Packers, Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET

Notable odds: The Bears have an 84% shot of making the playoffs, per The Athletic, and they improved their odds of winning the NFC North to 52% thanks to a Packers loss. Saturday night’s game against Green Bay very well could decide the division.

Playoff-clinching scenarios:

Victory vs. Packers AND Lions loss or tie vs. Steelers

Tie vs. Packers AND Lions loss vs. Steelers

3. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5): Up next — At Washington Commanders, Saturday, 5 p.m. ET

NFC East-clinching scenarios:

Cowboys loss vs. Chargers

Tie vs. Commanders AND Cowboys tie vs. Chargers

Notable odds: The Eagles have 99% odds to make the playoffs, via NFL.com. The top seed, however, is almost certainly out of reach.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7): Up next — at Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

Notable odds: The Buccaneers hold the tiebreaker over the Panthers in the NFC South at the moment, and they have a 76% shot at making the playoffs, per NFL.com. A pair of games against the Panthers over the next three weeks will be critical.

5. Los Angeles Rams (11-4)*: Up next — at Atlanta Falcons, Week 17

Playoff-clinching scenarios: The Rams are already in the postseason field, however they’ll need some help to secure the NFC West crown and the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

Notable odds: The Rams’ odds of clinching the No. 1 seed fell from 53% to 20% after Thursday night’s thrilling defeat in Seattle, per The Athletic.

6. San Francisco 49ers (10-4): Up next — at Indianapolis Colts, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Notable odds: Strong playoff favorites at 99%, per The Athletic. They also have 21% shot at the No. 1 seed in the conference.

Playoff-clinching scenarios:

Tie vs. Colts AND Lions tie vs. Steelers

NFC No. 1 seed-clinching scenario: The Niners are still in play for the division crown and the top seed in the conference. If they win out to close the regular season, the big prizes belong to San Francisco. Victories vs. the Colts on Monday and vs. the Bears in Week 17 would would set up a titanic regular-season finale against the Seahawks if Seattle wins its next two games. In that scenario, the winner of the Week 18 finale would walk away with the No. 1 seed and division title.

7. Green Bay Packers (9-4-1): Up next — At Chicago Bears, Saturday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Playoff-clinching scenarios:

Victory vs. Bears AND Lions loss or tie vs. Steelers

Tie vs. Bears AND Lions loss vs. Steelers

Notable odds: The Packers fell out of the lead in the NFC North and dropped to 43% to win the division after a loss to the Broncos, according to The Athletic. Saturday’s game in Chicago is massive.

Still in the NFC picture

8. Detroit Lions (8-6): Up next — vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Notable odds: Down to 27% to make the playoffs, per The Athletic.

9. Carolina Panthers (7-7): Up next — vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Notable odds: A loss to the Saints was costly as it dropped Carolina to 24% to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic. Two games against the Bucs down the stretch will decide the division.

10. Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1): Up next — vs. Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Notable odds: The Cowboys now have to win out, and the Eagles have to lose out in order for them to sneak in. The NFL.com has that listed as a less than 1% chance of happening.

AFC

1. Denver Broncos (12-2)*: Up next — vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

AFC West-clinching scenarios:

Victory vs. Jaguars AND Chargers loss or tie vs. Cowboys

Tie vs. Jaguars AND Chargers loss vs. Cowboys

AFC No. 1 seed-clinching scenarios:

Victory vs. Jaguars AND Chargers loss or tie vs. Cowboys AND Bills loss or tie vs. Browns

Notable odds: The Broncos secured a postseason spot with a win over the Packers, and they are now the favorite to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC at 73% odds, according to The Athletic’s playoff predictor.

2. New England Patriots (11-3): Up next — at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Playoff-clinching scenarios:

Victory or tie vs. Ravens

Colts loss or tie vs. 49ers

Texans loss or tie vs. Raiders

Notable odds: The Patriots squandered their chance to clinch the AFC East title with a loss to the Bills, but they still have at least 70% odds to win the division, per The Athletic. They’re a virtual lock to make the playoffs at 99%, according to NFL.com.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4): Up next — At Denver Broncos, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

Playoff-clinching scenarios:

Victory vs. Broncos AND Colts loss or tie vs. 49ers

Victory vs. Broncos AND Texans loss or tie vs. Raiders

Tie vs. Broncos AND Colts loss vs. 49ers

Tie vs. Broncos AND Colts tie vs. 49ers AND Texans loss vs. Raiders

Notable odds: The Jags maintained their lead in the AFC South, and are at least 60% likely to win the division, per The Athletic. Their overall playoff probability is 97%, according to NFL.com.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6): Up next — at Detroit Lions, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Notable odds: The Steelers still lead the AFC North, and their win over the Dolphins boosted their playoff probability to 60%, according to NFL.com.

5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4): Up next — at Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Playoff-clinching scenarios:

Victory vs. Cowboys AND Colts loss or tie vs. 49ers

Victory vs. Cowboys AND Texans loss or tie vs. Raiders

Tie vs. Cowboys AND Colts loss vs. 49ers

Tie vs. Cowboys AND Colts tie vs. 49ers AND Texans loss vs. Raiders

Notable odds: The Chargers have a 93% shot at making the playoffs, via NFL.com. They are still very much a long shot to catch the Broncos for the division title (9%, per The Athletic).

6. Buffalo Bills (10-4): Up next — At Cleveland Browns, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET.

Notable odds: While Buffalo’s chances at catching up to New England to win the division title are still slim (27% according to The Athletic), the Bills are a virtual lock to make the playoffs.

7. Houston Texans (9-5): Up next — vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Notable odds: The Texans’ odds to make the playoffs are 98%, per The Athletic.

Still in the AFC picture

8. Indianapolis Colts (8-6): Up next — vs. San Francisco 49ers, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Notable odds: The Colts have just an 8% shot at the playoffs, according to the Athletic, after a narrow loss to Seattle. There’s slightly more optimism from NFL.com’s model, giving Indianapolis a 16% shot at the postseason.

9. Baltimore Ravens (7-7): Up next — vs. New England Patriots, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Notable odds: The Ravens’ playoff hopes effectively hinge on them winning the division. They have a 34% shot at taking the AFC North crown, according to The Athletic.

Already eliminated

AFC

Cincinnati Bengals (4-10)

NFC

New Orleans Saints (4-10)

Washington Commanders (4-10)

NFL playoff picture: Seahawks take control of No. 1 seed in NFC, clinch playoff berth

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