Do the Colts make the playoffs in ESPN’s simulation of the remainder of the 2025 NFL season?
With help from their Football Power Index tool, ESPN simulated the remainder of the 2025 season for the Indianapolis Colts.
So how did things turn out?
What the FPI model does is run thousands of simulations. For this exercise, Seth Walder selected just one of those simulations.
In reality, the Colts are 8-6 heading into Week 16 and are on the outside looking in at the current AFC playoff picture. They are two games back in the AFC South race as well.
Win Week 16 against San Francisco, the FPI projection had the Colts losing 10-6. This drops them to 8-7.
The following week against Jacksonville, the Colts secured the win by a score of 30-20. Now they are 9-7.
To end the season, the Colts get another victory, defeating the Houston Texans on the road 20-13.
So was a 10-7 record in this simulation good enough to make the playoffs? It was not. Houston won the division with a record of 11-6, while Jacksonville and the LA Chargers — the sixth and seventh seeds in the conference — each had 11 wins as well.
Given the difficulty of the Colts’ remaining schedule, a 2-1 finish to the season would likely be a welcome sight for many.
What this simulation does go to show is that even with a strong finish to the season, the Colts are likely to need some help from others to make the playoffs.