In Week 16 of the 2025 season, the narrative surrounding the Houston Texans (9-5) and the Las Vegas Raiders (2-12) couldn’t be more polarized. As the Texans charge toward a playoff spot on a six-game winning streak, the Raiders are spiraling through an eight-game skid.
While most of the talk has focused on the Texans’ top-ranked defense, the real story of Sunday’s matchup at NRG Stadium will be how C.J. Stroud and the Houston offense systematically dismantle a Raiders defensive unit that is statistically middle-of-the-pack but emotionally and physically exhausted.
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The Stroud-Collins Connection vs. a Vulnerable Secondary
The Raiders’ pass defense is their relative “strength,” ranking 16th in yards allowed, but they are about to run into a buzzsaw. Nico Collins has just secured his third consecutive 1,000-yard season and is coming off a dominant two-touchdown performance.
The Raiders’ secondary has shown flashes but lacks the discipline to handle Stroud’s precision. With Stroud averaging over 230 yards per simulation and possessing a 76.0% “on-target” throw rate, the Texans should expect to find deep-ball opportunities early. If the Raiders play it safe to prevent the big play, expect Dalton Schultz to feast underneath.
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Testing the “Pete Carroll” Resilience
With Pete Carroll now at the helm in Vegas, the Raiders defense has transitioned to a 4-3 alignment. While they have managed to keep some games close, the efficiency is lacking. They currently rank dead last in the NFL in third-down defense, allowing conversions nearly 49% of the time.
For Nick Caley’s Texans offense, the goal is simple, stay on schedule. Houston’s offense doesn’t need to be flashy to win this game; they just need to exploit the Raiders’ inability to get off the field. By utilizing a mix of rookie Woody Marks and the veteran Nick Chubb, the Texans can grind down a Raiders front that has surrendered 19 rushing touchdowns this season.
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The Maxx Crosby Factor
If there is one thing that could disrupt the Texans’ rhythm, it’s Maxx Crosby. Despite the team’s record, Crosby remains a game-wrecker. The Texans’ offensive line has allowed 31 sacks this year, and keeping Stroud clean is the only way this game remains the blowout the oddsmakers expect (Texans -14.5).
“When it comes to the Raiders defense, Maxx Crosby definitely sticks out amongst that defense. He’s a very disruptive player in the run game and pass game,” said Coach DeMeco Ryans. “He does a really good job playing with good effort, finishing. He’s a guy we definitely have to have awareness of where he is. He aligns at both sides at any given time. We have to know where he is, and we have to make sure we’re outworking him. We’ve got to get our hands on him, and we’ve got to finish him. He’s a good player. We got good players. We just got to outwork him.”
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Houston should expect Patrick Graham (Raiders DC) to send heat early to rattle Stroud. However, Stroud has been remarkably calm under pressure this year, boasting a low interception rate (1.8%). As long as the tackles—Tytus Howard and Blake Fisher—can neutralize Crosby, the Raiders lack the secondary depth to hold up for four quarters.
The Verdict: A Professional “Tune-Up”
The Texans shouldn’t expect a dogfight, they should expect a test of focus. The Raiders’ defense is a group that has spent too much time on the field this year due to their league-worst offense. By the third quarter, the fatigue of the Raiders’ 31st-ranked time of possession will likely set in.
Houston’s offense should treat this as a dress rehearsal for the postseason: efficient, turnover-free, and relentless.