FOXBORO — Has the deep-ball element of the Patriots offense, which Drake Maye rained down upon the heads of opposing defenders with such regularity earlier in the season, suddenly dried up?

Through his first eight games, Maye completed a whopping 76.5 percent of his passes that traveled at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. According to NextGen Stats, that would’ve been the best deep completion rate by any quarterback for a full season since 2016 — and by 17 percentage points ahead of the next passer. Since then, though, Maye has completed just 30.4 percent of his deep attempts.

Unfortunately for Maye and the Patriots, this week’s matchup against the Ravens might not be the best time for them to try to revive their long-ball success. 

While Maye remains one of the game’s best downfield passers this season — his completion percentage (60.7) on passes 10 yards or more down the field is the best in football — the Ravens have tended to fare well against those types of attempts. They allow the seventh-lowest quarterback rating (79.8) and eighth-lowest completion percentage (45.6) against passes that travel at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. 

If the Patriots are going to win in Baltimore this weekend, they’re either going to have to get an outstanding performance from their defense or continue to find explosive game-changing runs from rookie back TreVeyon Henderson. Otherwise, it’ll be on Maye to thrive against a team that has had its share of success against opposing passing games to this point in the season. 

For more on what will ultimately decide the outcome on Sunday Night Football, let’s dive into the matchups…

Matchup that will determine the outcome

Patriots run defense vs. Derrick Henry’s toughness

Sound familiar? We felt as though the Patriots run defense would determine last weekend’s matchup with the Bills. And while Josh Allen went crazy in the second half to win it for Buffalo, he was helped by a running game that was as productive as it was determined. Against another former MVP quarterback in Baltimore, the same scenario could come to fruition… unless New England is able to stand up against the Ravens running game.

Easier said than done. Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson have been two of the game’s most productive runners over the better part of a decade. And the Patriots will once again be without top middle linebacker Robert Spillane. Defensive tackle Milton Williams remains on injured reserve, while Christian Barmore is questionable for Sunday with a knee injury that forced him to miss Friday’s practice. 

Working in Mike Vrabel’s favor? Despite having one of the worst run defenses in the NFL — the Patriots are sixth-worst in yards per rush attempt allowed and second-worst in first-down rushing rate allowed since Week 9 — Henry and Jackson aren’t the threats they once were. 

Henry still creates plenty of yards after breaking a tackle (8.1, second in the NFL) but he doesn’t break many tackles anymore. His 17.1 percent forced-missed-tackle rate is 40th out of 43 qualifying backs. Jackson, meanwhile, has just five runs of 10 yards or more since his return in Week 9, and his average carry has hit just 12 mph on the GPS, which is 3.5 mph slower than his average speed prior to his hamstring injury earlier this year, per NextGen Stats. 

If the Patriots can snuff out the Ravens run game — at least on a handful of series — they could help keep points off the board. New England has the league’s worst red-zone defense (75 percent of red-zone trips lead to touchdowns), and Baltimore’s run game hasn’t helped its 31st-ranked red-zone offense (44 percent of red-zone trips lead to touchdowns). 

Matchup that could surprise you

Patriots run game vs. Ravens tacklers

The Ravens have always been a blue-collar defense at its best in the black-and-blue AFC North. But this year they aren’t the sound-tackling machine they’ve been in years past under head coach John Harbaugh. 

They’re fourth-worst in the NFL in yards allowed per missed tackle (6.7), and they’re seventh-worst in rush yards allowed over expected (5.4).

Could be an opportunity for TreVeyon Henderson to continue his run of explosive carries; Henderson is the only back in the NFL aside from Miami’s De’Von Achane to hit 20 mph four times this season, and his 12.8 mph average speed when carrying the ball is fifth-fastest among running backs.

Matchup that will make your Sunday night

Drake Maye’s accuracy vs. Ravens play-action defense

The Ravens feature one of the best safeties in football in Kyle Hamilton, who has drawn plenty of praise from Patriots players and coaches this week. But Hamilton’s presence on the back end hasn’t prevented Baltimore from being deceived by play-action calls from their opponents this year.

The Ravens are 23rd in the NFL in terms of limiting opponent EPA when seeing play-action. They’re also just 24th in the league when opponents go under center, per Sumer Sports, and they’re 26th when offenses attack the intermediate part of the field (between 10-19 yards from the line of scrimmage).

The Patriots and Drake Maye, meanwhile, are the seventh-most efficient play-action offense this season, they’re 12th-best when going under center, and they’re first in the intermediate area. 

Even if their deep passing attempts aren’t easily accessible Sunday, this could be the kind of game where — if they can get Baltimore to bite on a play-fake — the Patriots pepper their tight ends and interior receivers behind the linebacker level and in front of Hamilton and his fellow defensive backs.

Matchup that could ruin your Sunday night

Drake Maye’s mobility vs. Ravens defense

One reason why the Bills were able to smother Patriots wideouts last week in man coverage was thanks to the work of their defensive linemen in the trenches. Without over-committing to rushing Maye — the Bills sent either four or five rushers on every snap in the second half — they were able to collapse the pocket around Maye in a coordinated and disciplined manner.

Typically teams don’t want to play man coverage against mobile quarterbacks because it can be hard to stop scramble attempts. But Maye wasn’t allowed to scramble last week, and his receivers were blanketed. 

Harbaugh’s Ravens may attempts a similarly coordinated attack on Sunday night. They’ve already proven to be very effective at limiting quarterback scramble attempts, allowing just 5.9 yards per carry (fifth-best) and a first-down rate on those types of runs of just 31.3 (sixth-best).

Maye has been an effective off-script runner this season, picking up 350 yards (fourth-most) and 23 first downs (second-most) on scrambles. But if he can’t escape the pocket in Baltimore, that would negate one of New England’s best offensive weapons, and it would limit the time his wideouts have to shake free if they see man coverage. 

Prediction: Patriots 28, Ravens 27