Micah Parsons suffers season-ending ACL tear, GB’s playoff hopes fade
Joe Rivera and Chris Bumbaca break down what Micah Parsons’ season-ending ACL tear means for Green Bay’s Super Bowl aspirations.
A dominant 31-3 victory over the Cleveland Browns gave the Chicago Bears 10 wins in the regular season for the first time since 2018 and just the third time in the last 15 years.
Under first-year head coach Ben Johnson, Chicago is fielding a top-10 scoring offense for the first time since that 2018 season. Quarterback Caleb Williams has taken a step in his second NFL season and the Bears are in contention for a division title.
Bears fans are in unfamiliar territory entering Week 16. The franchise could secure its first playoff berth in a half-decade and take the driver’s seat for the division title. A victory over NFC North foe Green Bay – with some help elsewhere – would lock up at least a wild-card spot.
If they lose, not all hope is lost. The Bears are right in the thick of the NFC playoff chase with just a few weeks left in the regular season. They’d just need other teams to fare worse than them to close the year.
Here’s a look at the Bears’ playoff scenarios entering Week 16 and where they fall in the overall NFL playoff picture.
Bears playoff chances
The Bears have a 78% chance to make the playoffs, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, entering Week 16. The chances change significantly depending on the game’s outcome. Chicago’s chances jump to 94% if they beat Green Bay but drop to 61% if they lose. No pressure, Ben Johnson.
Bears playoff scenarios
Chicago can clinch a playoff spot in Week 16. It wouldn’t be for the division title but it would ensure the team takes at least a wild-card spot. Here’s how it’d happen:
Bears win over the Packers AND Lions lose to the Steelers
That scenario ensures Chicago ends a postseason drought that dates back two head coaches. The franchise last made the postseason as the No. 7 seed in 2020 and lost in the wild-card round to New Orleans 21-9.
If the Lions win, it’ll take another week for the Bears to clinch a spot, regardless of their Week 16 outcome.
NFC North standings
The Bears enter Week 16 with a half-game lead in the NFC North over the Packers. This is what the standings look like:
Chicago Bears (10-4, 1-3 NFC North)Green Bay Packers (9-4-1, 4-0)Detroit Lions (8-6, 1-3)Minnesota Vikings (6-8, 2-2)
Green Bay and Detroit could still overtake the Bears in the NFC North standings by winning out. This division is far from decided.
Bears remaining schedule
Chicago has one of the toughest remaining schedules in the NFL, according to Tankathon, with the fifth-hardest trio of matchups. Chicago faces three teams in the playoff hunt, including two divisional matchups.
Below is a full look at Chicago’s schedule:
Week 16: vs Green Bay Packers (9-4-1)Week 17: at San Francisco 49ers (10-4)Week 18: vs. Detroit Lions (8-6)Packers remaining schedule
Green Bay has a slightly easier slate of games remaining this season thanks to an NFC North game against fourth-placed Minnesota. Despite losing Parsons in Week 15 to a season-ending injury, Green Bay could hold on for the division title.
Here’s a look at how Green Bay finishes the regular season:
Week 16: at Chicago Bears (10-4)Week 17: vs. Baltimore Ravens (7-7)Week 18: at Minnesota Vikings (6-8)
Even if the Packers lose to the Bears in Week 16, their final two opponents are much easier than what the Chicago will face to close the regular season. Green Bay’s better division record and tie instead of a loss will come in handy if the teams finish tied on wins.
NFL playoff picture Week 16AFCDenver Broncos (12-2, AFC West leaders)*New England Patriots (11-3, AFC East leaders)Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4, AFC South leaders)Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6, AFC North leaders)Los Angeles Chargers (10-4, wild card No. 1)Buffalo Bills (10-4, wild card No. 2)Houston Texans (9-5, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (8-6), Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
NFCLos Angeles Rams (11-3, NFC West leaders)*Chicago Bears (10-4, NFC North leaders)Philadelphia Eagles (9-5, NFC East leaders)Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6, NFC South leaders)Seattle Seahawks (11-3, wild card No. 1)San Francisco 49ers (10-4, wild card No. 2)Green Bay Packers (9-4-1, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Detroit Lions (8-6), Carolina Panthers (7-7), Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)
* Denotes team that has clinched a playoff berth.