Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 16’s game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Chargers.

Sunday in Arlington cares not for either team’s pre-December pedigree. The Chargers walk in with clinch pressure in their pockets and a coach who treats December like an audit. Dallas plays with the season’s oxygen thinning, and the building will feel it early. This is the kind of Week 16 window where the out-of-town scoreboard becomes a character, and you can feel it in play-calling tempo. A December crowd can either sharpen focus or amplify panic. If Dallas starts fast, it turns into a party; if it starts sloppy, it turns into a trial. This game is a test of poise under noise, not just talent. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 16’s game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Chargers.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Over Weeks 11–15, Dallas has been the cleaner offense, and the pace proves it. The Cowboys sit at 0.047 EPA per play with a 45.2% success rate and 68 plays per game. They throw at a 58.9% pass rate, with a 20.7% explosive pass rate and 11.3% explosive run rate. Dak Prescott (QB) has 3,931 passing yards with 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. CeeDee Lamb (WR) owns 24.2% of targets and 27.4% targets per route. George Pickens (WR) sits at 25.8% target share with 27.1% targets per route. Jake Ferguson (TE) carries 15.1% target share as the chain mover. Javonte Williams (RB) brings the run-game floor with 1,113 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns.

The Chargers’ offense has been stuck at -0.156 EPA per play with a 37.6% success rate and 61 plays per game. Their explosives have been scarce, with 15 total on 245 plays, just 6.1%. That scarcity is why their run game has to be a real tool. Omarion Hampton (RB) has 94 carries for 431 yards at 4.59 per carry, with 258 yards after contact and eight goal-line carries. He’s also at 117 rushing yards on 28 carries across his last two games, including 15 for 61 last week.

The Chargers can absolutely argue back with defense and discipline. Their defense sits at -0.137 EPA allowed per play with an 8.5% sack rate and a 15.3% explosive pass rate allowed. Dallas’ defense has leaked at 0.123 EPA allowed per play and allowed 18.5% explosive passes. Dallas is also without Tyler Guyton (OT), which can stress protection against a closing front. Dallas is without DaRon Bland (CB), with Trevon Diggs (CB) questionable, and that widens the margin for coverage errors. The Chargers convert 43.5% on third down in this window, with 6.0 yards to go. Dallas converts 40.0% with 6.3 to go. But Dallas’ defense is the sharper third-down lever, allowing only 33.3% conversions and forcing 7.4 yards to go. That’s where the Chargers’ core issue resurfaces.

Chargers vs. Cowboys pick, best bet

That core issue is Herbert’s environment, not his reputation. Justin Herbert (QB) under pressure sits at -0.326 EPA per dropback with a 30.0% sack rate. His time to throw balloons to 3.86 seconds when heat arrives. In clean pockets he’s still negative at -0.098, but the ball is out at 2.07 seconds. The broader protection profile matches that stress. Los Angeles has faced 51.5% pressure in this stretch, with 12.7% sacks allowed. Dallas has faced 37.2% pressure and allowed sacks on 4.3%. That’s the difference between living in second-and-seven and living in second-and-14. It also explains why the Chargers stay conservative on fourth down. They go for it 14.7% of the time, while Dallas goes for it 25.3%.

The board gives Los Angeles +2.5 (-115) and Dallas -2.5 (-105), with 49.5 shaded to the over. I’m laying Cowboys -2.5, because Dallas has more functional ways to score. Dallas is better in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 58.2% of 55 trips. The Chargers sit at 51.1% on 47 trips. Both teams are elite on field goals inside the 35, so points still appear when drives stall. Dallas also creates extra chances with fourth-down aggression, converting 60.9% on 23 tries.

Dallas should live in eleven personnel and keep the tempo high, because 68 plays stresses depth and legs. Prescott should lean into quick separators for Lamb and Ferguson, because their target rates scream primary reads. Williams should stay involved, because balance keeps Dallas out of third-and-forever. The Chargers should answer with Hampton as the stabilizer, because their explosive rate is only 6.1% lately. They should keep Herbert in rhythm, because clean-pocket timing lives at 2.07 seconds. If Los Angeles stays in second-and-six, it can make this a patience contest. If it falls behind the sticks, the 30.0% sack rate under pressure becomes the whole dang story.

Predicted score: Cowboys 27, Chargers 20.

Best bet: Dallas -2.5 (-105) vs. Chargers

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I like CeeDee Lamb (WR) 7+ receptions at +125, because it’s the cleanest “role meets game shape” bet on the board. Over Weeks 11–15, Dallas has played fast at 68 plays per game with a 58.9% pass rate, and this passing game is condensed by design. Lamb owns a 24.2% target share with a 27.4% targets-per-route rate, which is basically a first-read stamp. That matters against a Chargers defense that can win snaps, because volume doesn’t require efficiency. It just requires Dallas to keep running plays and keep throwing. The third-down profile supports that too. Dallas converts 40.0%, and the Chargers allow 37.8%, so drives should keep producing chain-moving situations. Dallas also goes for it on fourth down 25.3% of the time, which creates extra snaps and extra routes in the exact range where Lamb gets fed. Even if Los Angeles keeps explosives down, Lamb can get you to seven on pure structure. At +125, I’m buying target gravity and tempo.

Best prop lean: CeeDee Lamb 7+ total receptions (+125)

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