Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 16 Best Bets

Here are my NFL Week 16 best bets:

 

Disparate results happened for these teams last week. Minnesota covered and won outright as five-point underdogs with a 34-26 victory in Dallas. On the other side, the Giants were actually favored for the first time all season and lost 29-21 to the Commanders. 

Now the Giants return to the home dog role, which is more appropriately priced for a 2-12 team. Meanwhile, JJ McCarthy is now laying points on the road. McCarthy is going to need to prove it in this spot before he can be backed. He also may have to prove it down both starting tackles, as Christian Darrisaw has already been ruled out and Brian O’Neill is trending towards not playing. 

The G-Men have not won in over two months and are on an eight-game losing streak, but they are still playing hard. Jaxson Dart is now in his third game back from injury, and the Giants offense is moving the ball substantially better with his return to action. 

Baltimore stopped the bleeding last week with a 24-0 road shutout in Cincinnati. Now it gets the Sunday night primetime spot to save the season and keep pace with Pittsburgh in the AFC North.

New England is still in prime position to win the AFC East, but the Patriots had their 10-game winning streak snapped last week after blowing a 21-0 lead to Buffalo in what ended up as a 35-31 defeat. There could be some hangover this week as the Pats travel to Baltimore.

While Lamar Jackson has been far below his peak form this year, he is starting to play better and the running game is starting to become a wagon as the Ravens are 2nd in Rush EPA since Week 6 going against a New England defense that ranks 30th in Rush EPA since Week 8. The Patriots defense is starting to show some wear and tear with injuries. On the other hand, Baltimore is getting healthy defensively after a tough start to the season. 

Speaking of the former MVP, Jackson has never lost in Weeks 15 through 18. That’s right, he is 16-0 SU. 

The easy schedule in the early and middle portions of the season is starting to catch up to New England. 

Despite only having three practices, “Old Man” Rivers and the Colts somehow had the lead in the final minute at Seattle before Jason Myers made his sixth FG, a 56-yarder, to give the Seahawks the 18-16 victory.

Rivers (18-of-27 for just 120 yards; 4.4 ypa) certainly was not great in his return after five years removed from the game, but now will at least have a full week of practice and the running game could be more of his friend this week as the Colts had tough sledding on the ground (30 carries, 102 yards) in Seattle against a top five rushing defense.

Speaking of playing the run, the Colts rank 6th in the category and get former 49er DeForest Buckner back this week. Indianapolis held Seattle to just 50 yards on 22 carries last week. 

The 49ers have won four games in a row and five of their last six, but outside of a game at the Rams (a 42-26 loss), San Francisco has had a slate consisting of the Giants, Arizona, Carolina, Cleveland, and Tennessee. So, they have gotten a bit fat and happy against a weak schedule of late, and now they go on the road to face a team desperately now fighting for its playoff lives after an 8-2 start and having lost four straight with three of those losses being four points or less. 

TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Buffalo Bills/Cleveland Browns UNDER 42

TEASER OF THE WEEK 

Tennessee Titans +9/New Orleans Saints -0.5

BEST OF THE REST

Washington Commanders +7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys -130 ML vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 at Denver Broncos
Las Vegas Raiders +14 at Houston Texans

For more NFL Week 16 best bets, visit the NFL Week 16 hub exclusively on VSiN.com.