Sean Barnard gives his top DraftKings DFS plays for this week’s DraftKings Millionaire contest for Sunday’s Week 16 NFL action.
The NFL playoffs are right on the horizon, but there are still plenty of seeding implications in the final regular season stretch. Week 16 is already off to the races, with the Rams and Seahawks kicking things off with a Thursday Night thriller and a pair of games taking place on Saturday. There is still a full slate of games across the Sunday schedule, with each team looking to finish the year on a high note.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action with DraftKings Sportsbook and DFS contests. As you seek to maximize your DFS lineups, here is a look at a few players in line to outperform their price point to help give you an edge across the Sunday slate. This article presents my top DFS lineup and the logic behind each selection.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Quarterback
Justin Herbert ($6,000)
The Los Angeles Chargers will face off with the Dallas Cowboys this week, looking to add to their 10-4 record. Justin Herbert has battled through an injured left hand and a vulnerable offensive line all season, but has continued to impress. The former Offensive Player of the Year has completed 65.6% of his passes for 3,191 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions — also adding a career-high 419 rushing yards. Herbert is averaging 18.9 fantasy points per game based on DraftKings scoring, tied for the 11th-best mark among quarterbacks.
While the Cowboys’ defensive unit has sured up as the season has progressed, this is a team that opposing quarterbacks have feasted on all year. Dallas ranks at the bottom of the barrel in opponent points (31st), yards allowed (29th), passing touchdowns given up (31st), opponent yards per passing attempt (30th), and passing yards surrendered (32nd). Herbert has tallied 25+ fantasy points in four games this season, including a pair of 30-pieces.
With a friendly matchup and the Chargers still pursuing a top seed, expect Herbert to be ready to let the ball fly and capitalize against this poor Cowboys’ defense.
Other Considerations: Josh Allen ($7,200), Joe Burrow ($6,500), Bo Nix ($6,100), Bryce Young ($5,100)
Running Back
Javonte Williams ($6,400)
On the other side of the matchup, Javonte Williams has emerged as the clear top running back for the Cowboys. The former Broncos standout has rushed the ball 230 times for 1,113 yards and 12 touchdowns, while adding 128 receiving yards with two scores. Dak Prescott is second on the team in rush attempts with 45 this season. Williams is averaging 16.6 points per game on DraftKings scoring, which ranks ninth among running backs.
The Chargers have a strong overall defense, but are weaker against the run. They rank 24th in rushing touchdowns allowed and 22nd in yards per carry. Saquon Barkley ripped off 122 rushing yards and a score against them two weeks ago. While Williams is not quite at Barkley’s talent level, expect him to see plenty of opportunities and make the most of them. Count on the Cowboys’ lead back to be in line for a strong performance and a clear chance to outperform his average.
RJ Harvey ($6,200)
It took some time, but RJ Harvey has begun to separate himself as the lead back for the Denver Broncos. The rookie has played an average of just 38.4% of the snaps on the year, and clocked 40.7% or fewer in each of the first 10 games. But he has logged 61.3% or greater in three of the past four weeks and is coming off back-to-back weeks with 67.6% of the snaps logged. Harvey tallied a season-high 19 carries last week and has four touchdowns over the past three weeks.
Denver will face off with the Jacksonville Jaguars this week, who have played some high-level football of late. The Broncos are 12-2 on the season and riding an 11-game winning streak into the matchup. They have one of the best defenses in the league and are content with skipping style points for a victory. Expect Denver to look to keep the ball on the ground and eat some clock if — and when — they seize a lead. Harvey is averaging just 11.6 fantasy points per game on DraftKings scoring, which ranks 28th, but he has 21+ in two of the past three weeks. Look for this trend to continue and for Harvey to continue seeing an increase in opportunities. $6,200 is a solid value price for the Broncos RB who seems poised to outperform it.
Other Considerations: James Cook III ($7,700), Chase Brown ($6,900), Rico Dowdle ($6,300), Aaron Jones Sr. ($5,200)
Wide Receivers
Jameson Williams ($6,400)
The Detroit Lions are desperately fighting to earn a spot in the postseason. They will continue this effort in this week’s matchup with the Steelers. Detroit continues to have one of the most dynamic offenses and leads the NFL in points per game. Jameson Williams has been a key part of this production, with 52 receptions for 936 yards and seven scores this season. His 14.3 average fantasy points per game ranks 14th among wide receivers, and he will look to outperform this against a Steelers’ defense that has not lived up to its reputation. They have especially struggled stopping the pass, ranking 29th in passing yards allowed and 18th in passing touchdowns conceded. Expect Detroit to dig deep into its playbook and get Williams involved throughout. He is the big-play threat for this Lions team, poised to capitalize on a spotty Steelers secondary.
Ladd McConkey ($6,100)
The Chargers have leveled up their receiving room this season, but Ladd McConkey continues to be their top target. The Georgia product has pulled in 61 receptions for 715 yards and five touchdowns this season. McConkey’s 12 fantasy points per game on DraftKings scoring ranks 33rd among wide receivers. With the Cowboys’ 32nd-ranked passing defense in mind, expect McConkey to be right at the top of the list for who the Chargers will be depending on. His ability to impact the short passing game will be especially valuable with the weakness of the Chargers’ offensive line. Expect Herbert to get the ball out of his hands quickly and lean on McConkey throughout. Count on him to outperform his $6,100 price point and get back to the 20+ point fantasy football output he’s reached three times since Week 6.
Emeka Egbuka ($5,900)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are loaded with high-level pass catchers, but Emeka Egbuka has consistently made his case for why he should be regarded among the top wide receivers in the sport. The rookie has made the most of his chances while the veterans have battled injuries, pulling in a team-high 58 receptions for 870 receiving yards and six touchdowns. While the collective wide receiver group has gotten healthier, Egbuka’s chemistry with Baker Mayfield is undeniable. He is averaging 13.8 fantasy points per game, which ranks 20th among wide receivers. The Buccaneers will face off with the Carolina Panthers this week, with the pair of teams tied for the top spot in the NFC South. Carolina ranks 27th in yards per pass attempt, and the Buccaneers operate with a pass-first offensive approach. Egbuka has tallied at least six targets in all but one game this season. Expect him to stay involved throughout and have a clear path to outperforming his price point.
Other Considerations: George Pickens ($7,300), Mike Evans ($6,300), Jakobi Myers ($5,500), Troy Franklin ($5,200)
Tight End
Harold Fannin Jr. ($4,500)
The Cleveland Browns selected Harold Fannin Jr. with the 67th overall pick in this year’s draft and have made quick work to incorporate him into the offense. The Bowling Green product has tallied 66 receptions for 667 receiving yards and four touchdowns this season. Fannin Jr. should see his role further scaled up with TE David Njoku set to miss his second consecutive game. Cleveland will be facing the Buffalo Bills, who enter with the fourth-ranked scoring offense. Expect the Browns to be playing from behind throughout. Fannin Jr. has 15 receptions on 25 targets over the past two weeks alone, with Shedeur Sanders flashing solid chemistry with his fellow rookie. He also eclipsed 100 receiving yards for the first time in his career two weeks ago. Expect the game script to play to his favor and for Fannin Jr. to be heavily involved throughout. The $4,500 price point has not quite caught up to his involvement in the Browns’ offense and capitalize with Cleveland set to air the ball out plenty.
Other Considerations: Kyle Pitts Sr. ($5,000), Jake Ferguson ($4,400), Brenton Strange ($3,900)
Flex
Kareem Hunt ($5,300)
The Kansas City Chiefs will miss the postseason for the first time since 2014, but the show must go on to close the regular season. Patrick Mahomes will be sidelined with an ACL tear, with Gardner Minshew taking the reins under center. Expect this to result in the Chiefs leaning on the run as they face a 2-12 Titans team. Kareem Hunt has rushed the ball 148 times for 557 yards and nine touchdowns this season. He is averaging just 9.9 fantasy points per game on DraftKings scoring, but has tallied as many as 24.0 fantasy points in a game this season. Most encouraging, Hunt has tallied 36 rush attempts in the red zone, which not only leads the Chiefs but ranks 11th in the entire league. Expect this to be scaled up even further without Mahomes as a threat, and for Hunt to have multiple chances at a touchdown this week against a mediocre defense.
Defense & Special Teams
Denver Broncos ($3,200)
The Denver Broncos hold a 12-2 record and have clinched a postseason berth. They will look to extend their 11-game winning streak as they face the Jaguars this week. Jacksonville is on a hot streak of its own, but it is worth acknowledging that its previous four wins have come against the Jets, Colts, Titans, and Cardinals in overtime. Expect points to be more difficult to come by against a Broncos defense that ranks third in points allowed and fourth in yards conceded. Denver’s 8.1 fantasy points per game on DraftKings scoring ranks sixth among defenses. While Trevor Lawrence has played high-level football of late, he has had turnover problems throughout the years, and Denver is built to exploit this. The Broncos also lead the NFL with 58 sacks, 10 more than any other team in the league. Expect this level of pressure to force Lawrence to regress into some bad habits and for the Broncos to keep the Jaguars in check throughout.
Other Considerations: Texans ($4,000), Bills ($3,500), Vikings ($2,800)